February 20, 2025 25:38 E61

US-Ukraine relations continue their nosedive

Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 20, 2025.

Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and

our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.

We collected and mapped 52 events on
Wednesday, including exchanges between

US and Ukrainian leaders, and a Hamas
offer to release all hostages at once

in phase two of the ceasefire deal.

We have a lot to cover,
so let's get started.

Political Conflict

"China

The ceasefire negotiations between
the Ta'ang National Liberation Army

(TNLA) and Myanmar's military junta
ended unsuccessfully in Kunming, China.

Despite China's mediation efforts,
both sides failed to reach an agreement

after presenting their demands.

The TNLA proposed a comprehensive
ceasefire that included stopping

military operations and ensuring
civilian access to essential supplies.

Notably, the military junta conducted
airstrikes in TNLA-controlled areas

just before and during the talk."

"Gaza Strip

A Hamas senior official told AFP that
the group is willing to release all

remaining hostages in a single exchange
during the second phase of the Gaza

ceasefire deal rather than in stages.

The second phase would require the end
of the war and IDF withdrawal from Gaza.

After the completion of phase one, 59
Israelis remain in captivity, with 35

confirmed deceased by Israeli authorities.

The official did not specify whether
this single release would include the

bodies of deceased hostages, which were
originally planned for the third phase."

"Iraq

President Barzani of Iraq's
Kurdistan region urged the PKK

to disarm for peace in Turkey,
emphasizing this isn't surrender.

A peace process is underway, and they
are awaiting a message from jailed PKK

leader Ocalan, with Turkey's pro-Kurdish
DEM Party delegation meeting Kurdish

leaders in Iraq to discuss peace efforts.

This follows an October proposal
from Turkish nationalist leader

Bahceli suggesting Ocalan's possible
release if he renounces violence.

The PKK, designated as a terrorist
organization by Turkey, the US, and the

EU, has fought against Turkey for decades.

While the DEM Party has met Ocalan
twice recently, President Erdogan

remains silent on these developments."

"Kenya

Sudan has accused Kenya of hostility
for allowing the Rapid Support Forces

(RSF) to host activities at the Kenyatta
International Convention Centre (KICC).

The Sudanese government claims this
violates principles of good neighborliness

and Kenya's previous commitments.

Kenya's Foreign Affairs PS Korir Sing'oei
denied supporting RSF, stating that Kenya

supports a negotiated settlement and that
allowing political demands to be presented

doesn't indicate government favor.

The RSF met at KICC to plan the launch of
a ""Government of Peace and Unity,"" while

Sudan dismissed this as a ""propaganda
stunt"" and called on the international

community to condemn Kenya's actions."

"Pakistan

Pakistan plans to deport all Afghan
refugees, with immediate pressure on

those in Islamabad and Rawalpindi who
face arrests and forced relocation.

A March 31 deadline has been set
for illegal refugees awaiting

third-country resettlement.

While 1.45

million registered refugees
can stay until June 2025, about

20,000 Afghans approved for U.S.

resettlement are in limbo after
Trump paused refugee programs.

Since 2023, over 824,000
Afghans have returned home, with

deportations rising in January 2024."

"Philippines

The US has condemned China's ""dangerous""
helicopter maneuvers near a Philippine

aircraft patrolling the disputed
Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.

The Philippines plans to file a
diplomatic protest over the incident,

describing the Chinese navy's actions
as ""unprofessional and reckless.""

China denies these accusations,
claiming the Philippine aircraft

illegally entered Chinese airspace.

This incident is part of ongoing
tensions over the Scarborough Shoal, over

which both nations claim sovereignty.

The dispute is part of broader
territorial conflicts in the South

China Sea, where China claims most of
the waterway despite a 2016 arbitration

ruling invalidating these claims."

"Ukraine

Andriy Yermak, Head of the
Presidential Office of Ukraine,

met with US Special Envoy Keith
Kellogg in Kyiv on February 19.

During their first meeting, Yermak
emphasized the importance of the

""nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine""
principle in international negotiations

and expressed gratitude for Kellogg's
visit during challenging times.

Yermak stressed Ukraine's desire for
continued US support, highlighting the

need for security guarantees, defense
cooperation, and economic partnership.

The meeting focused on providing
Kellogg with comprehensive information

about the frontline situation
and maintaining strong US-Ukraine

relations based on mutual respect."

"Ukraine

Ukrainian President Zelensky responded
to Donald Trump's claim about his 4%

approval rating, stating that Trump is
influenced by Russian disinformation.

A recent poll by the Kyiv International
Institute of Sociology shows

Zelensky's actual trust rating at 57%.

The dispute comes amid concerns from Kyiv
and European allies about being excluded

from peace discussions following talks
between US and Russian foreign ministers

in Saudi Arabia - their first meeting
since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine."

"United Arab Emirates

UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed
Al Nahyan met with US Secretary of State

Marco Rubio and expressed firm opposition
to Palestinian displacement from Gaza.

During the meeting, the UAE leader
emphasized the need for Gaza's

reconstruction and a comprehensive
peace based on a two-state solution.

The discussion included Trump's
controversial proposal to place Gaza under

US control and relocate its inhabitants.

A Gulf Cooperation Council summit is
planned for Friday in Saudi Arabia,

where Arab nations will address
Trump's Gaza plan, which they oppose.

"
"United States

Secretary of State Marco Rubio
informed European allies that U.S.

sanctions against Russia
would continue until a peace

agreement is reached in Ukraine.

This message was conveyed during
a phone call with European foreign

ministers following U.S.-Russia

talks in Saudi Arabia.

While Rubio maintained a firm stance
on current sanctions, he also suggested

at a press conference that lifting
sanctions could be part of future

peace negotiations, noting that
""concessions"" would be needed from

all parties to end the conflict."

"United States

Former President Trump escalated attacks
on Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, calling

him ""a dictator without elections""
and criticizing his leadership.

This comes as US officials meet
with Russia to discuss Ukraine's

war without Ukrainian participation.

Trump's claims about Zelensky being
undemocratic are false, as he was

democratically elected, and elections
were legally postponed due to the war.

Zelensky responded that Trump
is ""living in a disinformation

space"" created by the Kremlin.

Meanwhile, Putin expressed satisfaction
with US negotiations and showed openness

to meeting Trump, highlighting growing
tensions in US-Ukraine relations."

Military Conflict

"Afghanistan

A brief armed confrontation occurred
between Taliban forces and unknown

attackers near Lashkar Gah, Helmand
province's capital, on February 19.

The fighting took place around midnight
in the Safiyan area of Police District 7.

The Taliban has not commented on the
incident, nor has any group claimed

responsibility for the attack.

No information about
casualties has been reported."

"India

Four suspected Maoists were killed
in a gunfight with security forces

in Balaghat district, Madhya Pradesh.

The operation involved multiple security
teams, including Hawk force, CRPF, CoBRA,

and district police, who were responding
to intelligence about the Maoist

movement in the Raunda Forest camp area.

Police recovered three
weapons from the scene."

"Iraq

A violent clash broke out between
Kifri and Khurmatu in Iraq when

three shepherds encountered six ISIS
terrorists while grazing their livestock.

The confrontation escalated into
a firefight, with Peshmerga forces

responding to provide support.

While some livestock were killed,
casualties among the shepherds and

terrorists remain unconfirmed."

"Iraq

Iraqi forces conducted successful
counter-terrorism operations

against ISIS in multiple provinces.

The Counter-Terrorism Service destroyed
ISIS hideouts in the Hamrin Mountains

near oil fields in Saladin, while
police units arrested several ISIS

members in Diyala's Al-Hadid District."

"Iraq

The Turkish military conducted operations
against PKK targets in northern

Iraq, specifically in the Gara and
Hakurk regions, where they reported

neutralizing nine PKK militants.

Additionally, Turkish forces carried
out artillery strikes on PKK positions

at Mount Matin near Al-Amadiyah
district, targeting areas around

the villages of Blava and Barji
with at least ten artillery strikes.

No information was provided
about casualties or damage from

the artillery bombardment."

"Lebanon

An Israeli drone strike on a
car in Ayta ash-Shab, southern

Lebanon, resulted in one fatality.

According to Saudi media outlet al-Hadath,
the deceased was a Hezbollah member.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)
has not provided any official

comment on the incident."

"Lebanon

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)
reported firing warning shots near the

Lebanese border in the Kafr Kila area
after detecting suspicious individuals

gathering close to the border.

The military confirmed that the
suspects retreated from the area

following the warning shots."

"Myanmar

A military junta conducted
an airstrike on Nyaungpinkwin

Village in Tanintharyi Township on
February 17, 2025, at around 9 PM.

The attack, which involved three
bombing runs using likely incendiary

bombs, destroyed approximately 60
out of 600 houses in the village.

Several unexploded bombs
were safely removed by Karen

National Union (KNU) troops."

"Myanmar

The Arakan Army (AA) and Arakan Rohingya
Salvation Army (ARSA) are engaged in

ongoing clashes near Mee Taik village in
northern Maungdaw Township, Arakan State.

The fighting began between February 14-18
when ARSA insurgents entered the area.

The AA is conducting clearance
operations at border posts, with

three support vehicles deployed.

While gunfire has been reported
daily, there are no confirmed

reports of casualties or arrests."

"Myanmar

The military junta conducted airstrikes
in two locations: southern Nawngkhio

Township on Tuesday morning and the
former TNLA (Ta'ang National Liberation

Army) war office headquarters near Namtu
and Kutkai townships on Monday night.

The attacks resulted in three
TNLA members being injured, but no

civilian casualties were reported.

The TNLA source noted that the targeted
area had been previously bombed

and that the recent strikes landed
in close proximity to villages."

"Nigeria

Acting on intelligence, Nigerian
troops in Zamfara State's Shinkafi

LGA conducted an ambush at a
bandits' crossing in Tunfa village.

The operation resulted in one terrorist
killed and the capture of a key

suspect who handled ransom payments
for the Sani Black terrorist group."

"Nigeria

Nigerian Army troops successfully
raided Iza forest, Bama LGA of

Borno State, on February 17, 2025.

The operation resulted in the
neutralization of 10 Boko Haram

fighters and the recovery of two AK-47
rifles with loaded magazines while the

remaining terrorists fled the area."

"Russia

A drone attack struck the Syzran
oil refinery in Russia's Samara

Oblast on February 19, 2025, causing
a fire and multiple explosions.

The local governor confirmed the
incident, reporting no casualties but

warning of possible future attacks."

"Sudan

The Sudanese army reported new
victories against the Rapid Support

Forces (RSF) in El-Fasher, North
Darfur, claiming 33 casualties and

destruction of military vehicles.

The army has been gaining significant
territory, now controlling

most of Khartoum State, while
the RSF maintains control over

four of Darfur's five states."

"Taiwan

The Taiwanese Ministry of National
Defense reported detecting 36 Chinese

military aircraft and seven naval vessels
near Taiwan during a 24-hour period.

Of these aircraft, 33 crossed the Taiwan
Strait median line and entered Taiwan's

air defense identification zone (ADIZ)
in various sectors: 4 fighters in the

north, 15 fighters crossing the median
line, 13 fighters in the southwest,

and one helicopter in the east.

In response, Taiwan deployed
combat aircraft, naval vessels, and

missile defense systems to monitor
the Chinese military activity."

"Ukraine

Russian forces conducted an
artillery attack on Huliaipole in

the Zaporizhzhia region, resulting
in the injury of a 63-year-old

man who sustained shrapnel wounds.

The attack also caused damage
to an ambulance in the city."

"Ukraine

On February 18, Russian forces
killed one civilian and wounded three

others in Ukraine's Donetsk region,
specifically in Kostiantynivka, according

to regional head Vadym Filashkin."

"Ukraine

A Russian airstrike on Kupiansk,
Kharkiv region, resulted in one

fatality and left another person
suffering from an acute stress reaction.

The attack damaged at least ten
private homes, according to Kharkiv

Military Regional Administration
Head Oleh Synehubov, who reported

the incident via Telegram."

"Ukraine

Ukrainian forces successfully
intercepted a major Russian drone

attack, shooting down 106 out of 167
Shahed-type attack UAVs and decoy

drones launched on February 18-19, 2025.

The attack came from multiple
Russian regions and included

two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic
missiles targeting the Sumy region.

The drones were intercepted across
14 Ukrainian regions, while 56

decoy drones were lost from tracking
without negative consequences.

The attack resulted in damage to
five regions, including Odesa,

where four people were injured."

"Ukraine

Russian forces launched airstrikes on
residential areas of Kostiantynivka,

Donetsk region, on February 19.

The attacks occurred in two
waves, using six FAB-250 bombs.

At least one person was killed, and
seven others were wounded, with one

person possibly trapped under rubble.

The strikes damaged 38
buildings, along with power

lines, gas lines, and vehicles."

"Ukraine

Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,300 Russian

soldiers over the past day.

Over 340 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."

"Ukraine

Russian strikes across the Kherson region
on February 18 hit over 30 settlements,

injuring seven people, including a child.

The attacks damaged multiple
buildings, including three

high-rises, eight private houses, a
warehouse, a garage, and vehicles.

Ukrainian forces later shot down two
Russian Shahed drones in the region."

"United States

On February 19, 2025, Air Force Global
Strike Command and Vandenberg Space

Force Base conducted a routine test
launch of an unarmed Minuteman III ICBM.

The 377th Test and Evaluation Group
oversaw the test, collecting performance

data to evaluate current systems
and validate future improvements.

Officials emphasized this was a
scheduled test, not a response to

world events, and part of maintaining
a credible nuclear deterrent."

"West Bank

Israeli security forces conducted an
operation in the Far'a Camp in the

northern West Bank, resulting in the
death of three Palestinian terror

operatives involved in arms smuggling.

Two additional suspects were arrested.

During a search of the area, authorities
recovered multiple weapons, including a

buried dismantled M16 rifle and a handgun
found on one of the deceased operatives."

Terrorism

"Afghanistan

A brief armed confrontation occurred
Wednesday near Kabul's Ministry of

Interior, which is under Taliban control.

While an unknown number of
casualties were reported,

specific details are unavailable.

Taliban forces responded by blocking
access roads to the ministry.

The Taliban has not issued any
official statement about the incident."

"Morocco

Moroccan authorities dismantled
an ISIS-linked terrorist cell

on Wednesday, arresting 12
suspects across multiple cities.

The operation, led by BCIJ and
DGST, uncovered explosive devices,

weapons, and attack plans.

The cell was directly connected to an
ISIS commander in the Sahel who provided

financial and logistical support.

Their planned attacks targeted
security personnel, economic

sites, and foreign interests and
included environmental terrorism.

The suspects had conducted
reconnaissance missions and received

ISIS approval for their plans."

"Pakistan

A tragic incident occurred in
Barkhan, Balochistan, on February 19,

2025, where armed assailants killed
seven passengers from Punjab after

stopping their bus at a checkpoint.

The attackers checked passengers' identity
cards before carrying out the executions.

Balochistan Chief Minister Mir Sarfraz
Bugti strongly condemned the attack

and ordered security forces (FC and
Levies) to pursue the terrorists."

"Somalia

Puntland forces captured ISIS members
in Bosaso for extortion and bombings.

The operation, supported by locals,
aims to dismantle ISIS and al-Shabaab.

Arrests include those who
fled the Calmiskaad mountains.

ISIS extorted locals, but payments have
stopped since the operation began."

"Somalia

Somali pirates have recently attacked
another Yemeni fishing boat (dhow)

off Eyl, Somalia, following a
similar incident 10 days earlier.

While piracy in the region peaked in
2011 with 237 attacks and $7 billion

in economic impact, it decreased
due to international naval patrols

and improved governance in Somalia.

However, pirate attacks have
recently increased, partly due

to regional instability caused by
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea related

to the Israel-Hamas conflict."

"Syria

The mayor of Al-Sheikh Saad Village,
located west of Daraa, was assassinated.

The official was fatally shot by two
assailants who were riding a motorbike

as he was leaving the local mosque."

Weapons

"Syria

Syrian security forces conducted arrests
in the Damascus countryside, targeting

groups accused of smuggling and selling
weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The operation resulted in the seizure
of arms and ammunition, with state

media SANA publishing a photo of
the confiscated weapons loaded on a

pickup truck in the Al-Qutayfah area."

Cyber

"Australia

Genea, a major Australian IVF provider,
has reported a cyberattack where attackers

accessed confidential data, including
sensitive medical and patient information.

The attack has disrupted services,
including taking the MyGenea

fertility tracking app offline.

While the full extent of the breach
remains unclear, the company is

investigating the incident and has
committed to notifying affected

individuals if their personal
information is compromised."

"India

Raymond Limited, an Indian textile and
apparel giant, disclosed a cybersecurity

breach on February 19, 2025, affecting
parts of its IT infrastructure.

While compromised systems were isolated,
the company confirmed that core business

operations, customer platforms, and its
1,300+ retail stores remain functional.

No details about threat actors or
attack types were revealed, but

forensic analysis is ongoing."

Civil Unrest

"India

The NIA arrested two civilian
contractors for leaking sensitive

information about INS Kadamba Naval
Base to a Pakistani operative.

Akshay Naik and Vethan Thandel
were allegedly honey-trapped by

a woman on Facebook posing as a
marine officer, who paid them â¹5,000

monthly to share classified details
and photographs of the naval base."

"United States

Anti-Israel protesters from Pal-Awda
demonstrated in Borough Park, Brooklyn,

an Orthodox Jewish neighborhood, targeting
an event selling Israeli real estate.

The protest led to violent clashes
between anti-Israel protesters,

pro-Israel counter-protesters,
and local Jewish residents.

One person was arrested after allegedly
assaulting a 61-year-old man."

Accidents

"Syria

A person lost their life in Atareb,
western Aleppo countryside, after

being struck by shrapnel from
a detonated legacy landmine."

"Turkey

Six migrants drowned, and 27 were
rescued off Turkey's western coast near

Ä°zmir when their boat began sinking.

The incident occurred in waters between
Turkey and the Greek island of Samos.

One of the rescued individuals was
detained on suspicion of human smuggling."

"United States

A Cessna 15OJ aircraft made an
emergency landing near Greenville,

approximately 7 miles south of
Greenville Mid-Delta Regional Airport.

All occupants survived without
injuries thanks to the skilled

handling of the flight crew.

The incident is under investigation by
the FAA and NTSB, and Mayor Errick D.

Simmons commended the pilots and
first responders for their effective

response to the situation."

"United States

Two planes collided at Marana Regional
Airport in southern Arizona on

Wednesday morning, killing two people.

Details are limited at this time.

The incident is under investigation by
both the Federal Aviation Administration

and National Transportation Safety Board."

Other Events

"Brazil

Brazil's Attorney General has formally
charged former president Jair Bolsonaro

and 33 others with five charges
related to an alleged coup attempt

following his 2022 election defeat.

The charges, filed at the Supreme
Court, are based on extensive evidence,

including manuscripts, digital
files, and messages that detail a

coordinated scheme to prevent President
Lula da Silva from taking office.

According to a federal police
investigation, Bolsonaro allegedly led

an ""armed criminal organization"" and"

"Israel

Five IDF reserve soldiers from the
""Force 100"" prison riot control

unit were indicted for severely
abusing a Palestinian security

prisoner at the Sde Teiman military
detention facility in July 2024.

The indictment details a 15-minute
assault where the soldiers beat,

kicked, and tasered the blindfolded
and shackled prisoner, with one soldier

stabbing the prisoner near his anus.

The victim suffered severe injuries,
including broken ribs, a punctured lung,

and rectal damage requiring surgery."

"South Korea

South Korean authorities are investigating
30 military personnel (17 generals and 13

field grade officers) for their alleged
involvement in President Yoon Suk Yeol's

failed martial law attempt on December 3.

The highest-ranking officer under
investigation is Army Chief of Staff Gen.

Park An-su, alongside
five three-star generals.

Some officers, including Gen.

Park, have already been indicted
for insurrection and abuse of power.

President Yoon himself has been
arrested, becoming the first

sitting president to face criminal
charges, and is currently suspended

from office following impeachment.

The Constitutional Court has six months to
decide on his removal or reinstatement."

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