February 13, 2025 28:11 E54

US shifts gears on Ukraine and plans negotiations with Russia

Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 13, 2025.

Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and

our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.

We collected and mapped 72
events on Wednesday, including

some interesting developments
around the US stance on Ukraine.

We've got a lot to cover, so
let's go ahead and get started.

Terrorism

"Afghanistan

The Islamic State (ISIS) has
claimed responsibility for the

suicide bombing outside a Kabul
Bank branch in Kunduz, Afghanistan.

The attack killed at least five
people, including Taliban members

and civilians, and injured seven
others, according to official reports.

However, local sources dispute these
figures, stating that at least 25 people

were killed and 30 others wounded."

"India

On Wednesday, Manipur police arrested
two People's Revolutionary Party of

Kangleipak (PREPAKâPRO) militants during
an operation in the Namdulong area.

Police also arrested an active militant of
the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCPâPWG)

during a separate operation in the Langol
Game Village Zone 2 area, Imphal West."

"India

On Wednesday, two hand grenades were
found near the residence of former

Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA)
Bijoy Koijam in Imphal West, Manipur.

Family members discovered one
grenade near the gate of the

residence, and police recovered the
other during a search of the area.

Police later detonated the
grenades at a safe location."

"Indonesia

Wednesday, a Greek-flagged tanker was
attacked by four armed pirates four

nautical miles north-west of Kapalajernih
Island in the Philip Channel, Indonesia.

The assailants stole engine
spare parts from the vessel

before they departed the ship.

No casualties were reported, and
the tanker continued its planned

route to Balikpapan, Indonesia."

"Iraq

On Wednesday, a roadside bomb
blast targeted an anti-ISIS Tribal

Mobilization forces commander's vehicle
in Al-Qaim, western Al-Anbar province,

injuring him and another force member.

Security personnel established a perimeter
around the affected area and initiated an

investigation to ascertain the details of
the attack and identify the perpetrators."

"Libya

A Libyan state minister, Adel
Juma, survived an assassination

attempt in Tripoli when gunmen
fired at his car on Wednesday.

The Government of National Unity (GNU)
has condemned the attack and launched an

investigation to uncover the circumstances
and identify the perpetrators."

"Nigeria

Five bandit leaders in Katsina State,
including Abu Radda, Umar Black, and

Abdullahi Lankai, have surrendered and
laid down their arms due to intense

military operations in the area.

The bandits voluntarily disarmed
and released several hostages,

appealing to the government for
alternative means of livelihood

and reintegration into society."

"Somalia

The Ambreay Maritime Company stated
there is a potential renewal of

piracy threats off the Somali coast.

On Sunday, a suspected pirate
action group was spotted departing

Marreya on the Eyl coast.

Ambreay urged merchant vessels
to increase vigilance and adhere

to best management practices."

"South Sudan

On Saturday, gunmen ambushed and killed
three motorcyclists while they were

traveling along Kapoeta-Pibor road in
the Greater Pibor Administrative Area."

"Syria

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
are securing and protecting the al-Hol

camp despite an increase in ISIS
activity in the area al-Hol region.

Amidst responding to attacks by
Turkish-backed militants, the SDF has

assured that they are well-equipped
to prevent escape attempts and bolster

security measures around the camp."

Military Conflict

"Gaza Strip

The Israeli military (IDF) confirmed
an airstrike in southern Gaza's

Rafah, targeting two suspects
who had retrieved a drone flown

from Israel into the Gaza Strip.

The drone was being tracked and was
apparently being used to smuggle

weapons and drugs into Gaza.

One suspect was killed, and the
other was wounded in the strike."

"Iraq

Iraqi and US forces conducted
separate airstrikes against ISIS

militants in Kirkuk and the Al-Jazira
region, killing seven fighters.

Iraqi warplanes eliminated two
militants, while US F-16 jets destroyed

an ISIS hideout, killing five."

"Iraq

Iraqi warplanes conducted an airstrike
on an ISIS cell between the Al-Rashad

sub-district and Daquq district, 45
km south of Kirkuk in the Zghaitoun

Valley area, killing two terrorists.

The strike was coordinated by the
Joint Operations Command (JOC)

and involved ground forces, which
recovered the bodies of the militants

and seized weapons and equipment."

"Iraq

On Wednesday morning, Turkish warplanes
bombed the Qandil Mountains in the

Medya defense areas of South Kurdistan.

The airstrikes caused severe
damage in areas of the strikes.

Turkish authorities did not
provide details on the attacks."

"Iraq

Turkish forces have neutralized five
members of the Kurdistan Workers'

Party (PKK) in northern Iraq through
an airstrike in the Gara region."

"Japan

On Tuesday, Japanese fighter aircraft
intercepted a Russian spy plane over the

Sea of Japan and identified a Chinese
drone near Japan's westernmost island.

The Russian aircraft did not enter
Japanese airspace, but was tracked

inside its air defense zone."

"Myanmar

On Sunday and Monday, military raids in
Wetlet and Kanbalu townships resulted

in the destruction of over 180 homes
and the displacement of 10,000 people.

According to a member of the People's
Defense Force (PDF), the villages of

Koe Myo and Tho Boe were targeted,
with most buildings being burned down.

At least one person was killed
and one wounded during the raids."

"Pakistan

According to a report, on Tuesday, at
least three Pakistani Taliban (TTP)

terrorist Afghan nationals were killed
during a military operation in Miranshah,

as cited by Pakistani security sources.

The deaths mark the second incident this
week of Afghan nationals being killed

in a Pakistani military operation."

"Somalia

On Tuesday, Security forces in
Somalia's Puntland State killed

over 60 ISIS fighters in a
coordinated air and ground assault.

The operation, which involved a
ground assault in the Haraaryo area,

also repelled ISIS attacks on a
military base earlier in the day."

"Somalia

On Tuesday, Somalia deployed elite
National Intelligence and Security

Agency (NISA) units to reinforce
nationwide military operations to

combat Al-Shabaab and ISIS militants
as part of its intensified campaign to

restore security across the country.

The troops, trained under Turkish
guidance, will focus on precision strikes

and dismantling militant hideouts.

The deployment comes as Somalia
intensifies military operations in

regions like Hiiraan and Bari, with
government forces and local militias

making progress against extremist groups."

"South Sudan

Clashes broke out early Wednesday in
Western Equatoria State between the Sudan

People's Liberation Army-in-Opposition
(SPLA-IO) and the South Sudan

People's Defense Forces (SSPDF).

The SPLA-IO alleges the SSPDF
attacked the Ri-Rangu cantonment

site approximately 42 kilometers
from Mundiri in pursuit of recently

dismissed Governor Alfred Futuyo Karaba.

The opposition group has condemned the
attack as a ""violent pursuit"" and an

""assassination attempt"" on Futuyo,
who was removed from his position

by President Salva Kiir on Monday."

"Sudan

On Tuesday, Rapid Support Forces
(RSF) launched an attack on the

Zamzam camp in North Darfur, forcing
thousands of displaced people to flee.

The governor of the Darfur
region condemned the attack,

calling it a violation.

According to eyewitness accounts
reported to the Sudan Tribune, a large

RSF contingent infiltrated the Zamzam
displacement camp from the surrounding

Golo, Shaqra, and Saluma areas.

The attacking forces thoroughly looted
and burned the market and raided the

homes of displaced people and civilian
cars before retreating from the

camp after the army and Joint Force
arrived and engaged them in battles

in the western part of the camp."

"Sudan

The Sudanese army is advancing in the last
stronghold of the Rapid Support Forces

(RSF) in Khartoum Bahri, aiming to reach
the center of the East Nile locality.

Clashes have been taking place in
the Kafouri area for days, and the

army has made progress in capturing
residential squares from the RSF forces.

The Sudanese army's goal is to seize
the entire Kafouri neighbourhood and

proceed to other strategic areas,
including bridges leading to Khartoum."

"Syria

Clashes between the Military Police
and Al-Jabha Al-Shammyah have

erupted in Tal Abyad, resulting
in 9 deaths and 10 injuries.

The fighting has caused panic
among civilians, with schools

and markets closed and residents
staying indoors due to shelling."

"Syria

Renewed clashes between SDF and
Turkish-backed factions in eastern

Aleppo province broke out, involving
heavy weapons and airstrikes.

No casualties were reported,
but it was part of a larger

escalation in the region."

"Syria

The Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF) have made several key moves

against Turkish-backed factions.

They shot down a drone near Teshreen
Dam, attacked National Army positions,

killing two and injuring five, and
arrested a militiaman attempting to

attack a post near Deir Hafer, seizing a
large cache of weapons and ammunition."

"Syria

Turkish airstrikes targeted
civilians in eastern Aleppo.

SDF shot down a Turkish drone
and attacked faction positions,

killing two and injuring 5.

A Turkish-backed militiaman was
also arrested for attempting

to attack a military post."

"Taiwan

Taiwan tracked 30 Chinese
military aircraft, seven naval

vessels, and one official ship
around its country between 6 a.m.

on Tuesday and 6 a.m.

on Wednesday.

23 aircraft crossed the Taiwan
Strait median line in the countryâs

northern, southwestern, and eastern
Air Defense Identification Zone."

"Taiwan

The US Navy conducted a ""routine""
exercise through the Taiwan Strait, which

has been met with criticism from China.

China's military has accused the
US of engaging in risky behavior.

At the same time, the US Navy stated that
the transit occurred through a corridor

between Monday and Wednesday where all
nations enjoy freedom of navigation."

"Ukraine

A 70-year-old woman in the Boryspil
district was injured due to the

fall of a Russian drone wreckage,
suffering an acute stress reaction.

The attack damaged 10 private houses
in Boryspil and one in Fastiv and

caused a fire in non-residential
premises in the Obukhiv district.

Fortunately, no critical
infrastructure facilities were hit,

and the authorities are providing
assistance to the affected owners."

"Ukraine

A fire broke out at an infrastructure
facility due to Russian drone

wreckage but was quickly
extinguished with no casualties.

There were multiple drone attacks on
the Kutsurub and Ochakiv communities,

but no casualties were reported.

A non-operational lyceum
building was damaged due to

drone wreckage in the region."

"Ukraine

A resident of the Esman community
in the Sumy region was injured by a

Russian strike from a multiple rocket
launcher system on February 11.

The victim, a 42-year-old man,
was taken to the hospital with a

shrapnel wound but is not in danger.

This incident is one of 97 reported
Russian attacks in the Sumy region on

February 11, resulting in 130 explosions."

"Ukraine

A rocket attack resulted in the
death of one person, a man born in

1985, in Kyiv's Obolon district.

The attack also caused fires in multiple
buildings and damaged parked cars.

Additionally, Ukrainian Defense
Forces have reported shooting

down six Russian Iskander-M
ballistic missiles and 71 drones."

"Ukraine

A Russian nighttime attack on a critical
infrastructure facility in the Pryluky

district of Chernihiv region resulted
in a fire, injuring two people.

An attack drone reportedly caused
the fire, and it has since been

localized as of February 12."

"Ukraine

According to the regional state
administration, three residents of the

Donetsk region were injured by Russian
forces on February 11 in Kostyantynivka.

Damage assessments were not
reported in the attacks."

"Ukraine

In the Novopavlivka sector, Ukrainian
drone operators destroyed three

Russian reconnaissance UAVs, one tank,
and three armored combat vehicles.

The coordinated actions of the drone
operators successfully neutralized

the Russian drones, preventing
them from conducting aerial

reconnaissance of Ukrainian positions."

"Ukraine

On February 12, Russian forces
carried out attacks on two villages

in Kharkiv region, Ukraine.

In the village of Karasivka, at
least 10 residential buildings

were damaged by glide bombs,
but no injuries were reported.

In the village of Horokhovatka, a
store and an emergency medical vehicle

were damaged by an artillery attack."

"Ukraine

Russian air strikes and shelling in the
Kharkiv region injured eight people and

damaged multiple buildings and homes.

The attacks occurred in several
villages, including Kutkivka, Berezivka,

Borshchova, Osynove, and Zolochiv.

Russian aviation struck the
Zolochiv territorial community

with guided aerial bombs, causing
significant damage and injuries.

The Ukrainian defense forces
repelled Russian assaults in the

Kupyansk sector and downed 6 Russian
Iskander-M missiles and 71 UAVs."

"Ukraine

Russian forces have attacked
the Nikopol district in the

Dnipropetrovsk region over 20 times,
using strike drones and artillery.

The attacks resulted in damage to an
industrial enterprise, a gas station,

and a private house, but fortunately,
there were no casualties reported.

The situation remains tense in
Nikopol, as well as in nearby

communities of Marhanets,
Pokrovsk, and Chervonohryhorivka."

"Ukraine

Russian forces have attacked the
Zaporizhzhia region 448 times, targeting

13 settlements and injuring three people.

Attacks included nine air strikes,
270 UAV attacks, five MLRS

attacks, and 164 artillery strikes,
resulting in 55 reports of damage

to apartments and private houses."

"Ukraine

Russian forces have shelled Sloviansk in
the Donetsk region, causing damage to a

local enterprise and two private houses.

A bus caught fire as a result of
the attack, but firefighters were

able to extinguish the blaze, which
covered an area of 700 square meters."

"Ukraine

Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled a
Russian air attack on February 11.

They downed 6 Iskander-M
ballistic missiles, 71 Shahed-type

drones, and 40 imitator drones.

The attack affected several
regions, including Kyiv, with one

death and four injuries reported."

"Ukraine

Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,150 Russian

soldiers over the past day.

Around 380 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."

"West Bank

Israeli troops from the Maglan
commando unit killed a Palestinian

gunman in the Nur Shams refugee
camp near Tulkarem in the West Bank.

The incident occurred during a
counter-terrorism operation, Operation

Iron Wall, which began on January 21 and
is expected to last several more weeks.

One Israeli soldier was moderately
wounded in the incident."

Political Conflict

"Afghanistan

A power struggle is reportedly escalating
within the Taliban ranks as key figures

loyal to leader Hibatullah Akhundzada
try to thwart the Haqqani network's

growing influence in Afghanistan.

A 14-member delegation was prevented from
traveling to Qatar for a meeting of the

Afghanistan Future Thought Forum, citing
an internal power struggle between the

Haqqani network and Akhundzada loyalists."

"Belgium

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered
a message to NATO allies that the

US will not participate in a future
peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.

Hegseth emphasized that Ukraine should
make a deal with Russia now, giving up on

regaining all occupied territory and that
the US is committed to a sovereign and

prosperous Ukraine, but not through NATO
membership or US troops on the ground."

"Democratic Republic of Congo

The Democratic Republic of Congo has
closed its airspace to all Rwandan

aircraft due to the ongoing armed conflict
between M23 rebels and Congolese forces

in the eastern province of North Kivu.

The conflict has resulted in over 3,000
deaths, 2,880 injuries, and over 500,000

displaced people, with Kinshasa accusing
Rwanda of backing the M23 rebels.

The M23 rebels have declared control
of Goma and established their

own administration in the city."

"Egypt

Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed
Aboul Gheit strongly rejected US

President Donald Trump's plan to
displace Palestinians from the Gaza

Strip and West Bank, calling it
""unacceptable"" for the Arab world.

He emphasized that this idea had
been resisted by Arabs for 100 years

and that they would not capitulate
now despite not suffering a defeat."

"Egypt

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi
and Jordan's King Abdullah II reaffirmed

their unified position on Gaza,
calling for the full implementation of

the ceasefire agreement, the release
of hostages and prisoners, and the

facilitation of humanitarian aid.

They also stressed the need for
immediate reconstruction in Gaza

without displacing Palestinians."

"Gaza Strip

Mediators from Qatar and Egypt
are working to resolve the crisis

surrounding the Gaza ceasefire deal.

The crisis has been strained due to Hamas'
refusal to release hostages as scheduled

and Israel's threat to resume fighting.

The mediators are in contact with the
American side and are trying to compel

Israel to implement the humanitarian
protocol in the ceasefire agreement."

"Israel

The Israeli security cabinet, led by
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,

is unclear about US President Donald
Trump's statement on freeing ""all

hostages"" by Saturday at noon.

Due to this, the cabinet sent out
ambiguous messages, threatening a

return to war if all hostages were
not released, but the exact meaning of

Trump's statement remains uncertain."

"Japan

Japan has lodged a protest with China
after four Chinese coast guard ships

entered Japanese territorial waters around
the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

This is the second such incident
this year, and Japan has vowed to

respond resolutely to defend its
territorial waters and airspace.

The Senkaku Islands are a source
of friction between Japan and

China, with China claiming them
but Japan administering them."

"Lebanon

Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun has stated
that Israel must withdraw all its forces

from Lebanon by next week's deadline.

This comes despite reports of a
potential extension to the ceasefire

between Hezbollah and Israel, which was
initially set to expire on February 18

and has been reported to be extended
to February 28 by some sources."

"Philippines

On Wednesday, Philippine government
investigators filed sedition and

grave threat charges against her
for her public threat to have

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

assassinated if she were killed.

The complaints were filed at
the Department of Justice,

which will decide whether to
dismiss or elevate them to court.

This development comes amid an
escalating political storm and

follows her impeachment by the
House of Representatives last week."

"Russia

The Kremlin announced that a Russian
citizen was released in the US in exchange

for American Marc Fogel's freedom.

The Russian citizen's
identity remains unknown.

Fogel, an American history teacher, was
arrested in 2021 and returned to the US

on Tuesday, sparking a diplomatic thaw
that could advance Ukraine negotiations."

"South Korea

On Tuesday, South Korea's acting
President, Choi Sang-mok, announced that

the government will seek talks with the
US administration to discuss the 25%

tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

The tariffs, set to take effect in March,
are expected to reduce US steel demand

and impact South Korean steel companies.

South Korea is the fourth-largest
steel exporter to the US, and the

government is exploring options to
protect its companies' interests."

"Sudan

The Sudanese army has rejected a ceasefire
proposal by the United Arab Emirates

(UAE) during the holy month of Ramadan.

The Sudanese military considers the UAE
an aggressor in the war and accuses it

of arming the paramilitary Rapid Support
Forces (RSF), charges the UAE denies.

The rejection comes as the army has made
significant advancements in the capital,

seizing control of a key stronghold
in northern Khartoum previously held

by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)."

"Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin held
a phone call with Syrian leader Ahmed

al-Sharaa, discussing the future of Syria
and Russia's interests in the country.

Putin expressed support for
Syria's unity, sovereignty, and

territorial integrity, while also
acknowledging past mistakes made by

Russia during the Syrian civil war.

This call comes after Russia's
ally, Bashar al-Assad, was ousted

by rebels, leaving Russia's
military bases vulnerable."

"United States

Marc Fogel, an American history teacher
wrongfully detained in Russia, has

been released and returned to the US.

He was welcomed back at the White
House by President Donald Trump,

who described the release as a
diplomatic thaw that could advance

negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

Trump also announced that another
American would be released

from detention on Wednesday."

"United States

US President Donald Trump announced a
""lengthy and highly productive"" call

with Russian President Vladimir Putin,
where they agreed to start negotiations

to end the Ukraine war immediately.

They also discussed the Middle
East and exchanged invitations

to visit each other's nations."

Civil Unrest

"Algeria

On Wednesday, teachers and students
protested for the second day

across the country over low wages,
working conditions, outdated

curricula, and high education costs.

The strikes highlight broader discontent
over economic issues, corruption,

and limited work opportunities."

"Iran

On Tuesday, protests broke out in
various cities across Iran, including

Tehran, Bushehr, Qazvin, Gilan, and
Khash, in response to economic hardship,

executions, and systemic corruption.

Demonstrators are angry over
inflation, unpaid wages, and

government mismanagement."

"Iran

Two British nationals have been taken
into custody by Iranian authorities,

accused of unspecified security offenses.

The individuals were held in the Kerman
province, but no further details about

their identities or the circumstances
of their arrest have been released."

Cyber

"Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea's tax office has been
hit by a major cyberattack, potentially

exposing sensitive data of hundreds
of thousands of people and businesses.

The attack has caused a system outage
and impacted the IRC's core tax system."

Accidents

"Nepal

A bus accident in Shankharapur
Municipality, Kathmandu, has resulted

in 3 fatalities and 40 injuries.

The accident occurred when the
driver lost control of the bus,

which was carrying 92 people.

The cause of the accident is
under investigation, with brake

failure suspected to be a factor."

"Syria

A landmine explosion in the Wady Al-Azib
area of Hama countryside resulted in

the deaths of three civilians from the
Anza Tribe due to shrapnel injuries."

"Syria

At least six people have died in the
Syrian region due to explosions of

landmines left behind from war remnants.

Three men died in the Deir Ezzor Desert,
and three others died in Ras Al-Maâara

Town in Rif Dimashq while herding sheep."

"Syria

In Syria, two separate incidents
involving the explosion of old

landmines have been reported.

The first incident occurred in the
eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor,

where a group of people searching for
truffles were caught in an explosion

that resulted in the death of a young
man and injuries to four others.

In the northern countryside of Hama,
a young man was injured in a similar

explosion in Qasr Abu Samra village."

"United States

A Brightline train crashed into
an SUV on Monday afternoon in

Malabar, Florida, at the railroad
crossing along Jordan Boulevard.

The SUV driver attempted to
avoid the train but was unable

to do so and was injured with
non-life-threatening injuries.

The Florida Highway Patrol
is investigating the crash."

"United States

A freight train derailed in
Farley, Massachusetts, on Tuesday

with no reported injuries.

Eight railcars derailed
just before 4 p.m.,

causing damage to the
tracks and a nearby road.

An investigation is underway to
determine the cause of the incident.

The cleanup process is expected
to take days, with Farley

Road closed during this time."

"United States

A train derailment occurred on Route
224 in Attica, Ohio, before 8:30 p.m.

on February 11.

Nineteen cars were involved,
and two tankers were leaking

corn syrup and alcohol.

Crews are working to prevent
alcohol from leaking into a local

water supply, and no danger to the
public or injuries were reported."

"United States

A U.S.

Navy E/A-18 G Growler fighter
jet crashed into the San Diego

Bay on Wednesday morning.

Two pilots were rescued shortly after
ejecting from the aircraft, with the U.S.

Coast Guard and other federal emergency
responders assisting in the rescue effort.

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