Undersea cable cut off Taiwan
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 26, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
On Tuesday, we collected and mapped
54 events, including more news on
Ukraine negotiations and more Chinese
maritime activity, so let's get started.
political Conflict
"Cambodia
Cambodia's military has requested resuming
the joint Angkor Sentinel exercise with
the US, which was canceled in 2017 as
Cambodia strengthened ties with China.
This request came during meetings
between Cambodian officials and
visiting US Army Pacific commander Gen.
Ronald Clark.
The potential cooperation
signals a possible thaw in
relations that deteriorated due
to US human rights concerns.
Meanwhile, suspicions persist
about China's involvement in
Cambodia's Ream naval base,
which has undergone significant
expansion with Chinese funding."
"Iran
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas
Araghchi has ruled out direct
negotiations with the United States
regarding Iran's nuclear program.
During a joint press conference with his
Russian counterpart, Araghchi specifically
cited ""maximum pressure"" tactics from
US President Donald Trump's administration
as the reason for this stance.
He indicated that as long as
this approach continues to be
applied, Iran will not engage in
direct nuclear talks with the US."
"Iran
Sergei Lavrov, Russia's Foreign
Minister, has arrived in Tehran for
one day to talk with Iranian officials
about regional and bilateral matters.
This visit occurred shortly after
Russia engaged in preliminary
discussions with the US following Donald
Trump's return to the White House.
The timing is notable as it comes
just after the US imposed new
sanctions on Iran's oil industry as
part of Trump's reinstated ""maximum
pressure"" campaign, which aims to
reduce Iran's oil exports to zero."
"Iraq
Iraq's Defense Minister announced
a proposed new security agreement
with the US, which is currently
under Trump administration review.
The agreement aims to establish
a lasting security partnership
and intelligence cooperation.
Al-Abbasi emphasized US troops in Syria
are essential for regional stability
until Syria builds adequate military
capacity, warning premature withdrawal
could create a power vacuum for militants.
The Iraq-US security relationship
is based on 2008 agreements,
with the US providing $1.25
billion in military financing since 2015
and $590 million for weapons destruction.
Both nations maintain ongoing security
dialogues to address emerging threats."
"Lebanon
Lebanon's new Prime Minister, Nawaf
Salam, declared in his government policy
statement that only state armed forces
should defend the nation during war.
Appointed after the recent
Israel-Hezbollah conflict, Salam
emphasized that while Lebanon has
the right to self-defense, only
the state should possess weapons
and take measures against Israel.
This position directly challenges
Hezbollah's justification for
maintaining its arsenal, which
the group claims is necessary for
Lebanon's defense against Israel."
"Philippines
The Philippines welcomed the US exemption
of $336 million in military assistance
from President Trump's foreign aid freeze.
This funding, intended for
modernizing Philippine security
forces, was part of a larger $5.3
billion release that also included
aid for Taiwan and Ukraine.
The exemptions were granted before
a US judge ordered a temporary
lift of the freeze on February 13.
Philippine Ambassador Romualdez called
this development a significant sign that
the strong US-Philippines alliance remains
intact under the Trump administration."
"Russia
Putin offered the U.S.
a deal to jointly exploit critical
minerals (titanium, lithium, beryllium)
from Russia and occupied Ukrainian
territories, countering a pending
US-Ukraine minerals agreement.
He also proposed restarting
aluminum exports to America,
which plummeted from $1.7B
in 2017 to $2.3M
in 2024 due to sanctions.
This offer came as Trump mentioned
""economic development transactions""
with Russia while US-Ukraine officials
work on their own minerals deal
that would give American companies
access to Ukraine's reserves.
Zelenskyy is open to this arrangement but
wants security guarantees against Russia."
"Russia
Russia has reached an agreement with
Ukraine and the Red Cross to evacuate
Russian civilians from the Kursk region,
parts of which have been under Ukrainian
control since a surprise cross-border
offensive over six months ago.
According to Russian rights commissioner
Tatyana Moskalkova, some Kursk residents
have already crossed into Ukraine's
Sumy region and will be evacuated
through Belarus back to Russia.
The number of civilians to be evacuated
under this agreement was not specified."
"South Korea
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol faces
removal from office as the Constitutional
Court reviews his impeachment over
a brief martial law declaration.
Parliamentary lawyers compared
him to past dictators, while Yoon
defended his actions as a necessary
warning about a national crisis,
not an attempt at full martial rule.
The decree lasted just six
hours before being rescinded.
Yoon is currently detained on
separate criminal charges of
leading an insurrection, making
him the first sitting South Korean
president to face a criminal trial.
If removed, a new presidential
election must be held within 60 days.
The court has up to six months to decide."
"Syria
Syria's interim president, Ahmed
al-Sharaa, announced plans to establish
a transitional justice committee during a
national dialogue conference in Damascus.
Sharaa, who leads the Islamist group
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that overthrew Bashar
al-Assad in December, emphasized pursuing
those who committed crimes against
Syrians and bringing criminals to justice.
He also stressed two key principles:
the unity of Syria as ""indivisible""
and the importance of the state
maintaining a monopoly on weapons."
Military Conflict
"Argentina
Argentina has deployed naval aircraft
and ships to monitor hundreds of
foreign fishing vessels positioned
at the edge of its maritime zone.
During a recent patrol, 380 boats
were observed, mostly Chinese, waiting
to catch valuable shortfin squid.
These foreign vessels, particularly
from China's massive fishing fleet, are
accused of illegal fishing by turning
off tracking systems to enter Argentine
waters undetected or using ""flags of
convenience"" to hide their identity.
Past confrontations have turned
violent, including a 2016 incident
where Argentina sank a Chinese trawler.
The patrols reflect Argentina's
determination to protect its marine
resources from foreign exploitation."
"Australia
Chinese warships that recently
conducted live-fire drills in the
Tasman Sea have re-entered Australia's
Exclusive Economic Zone and are
being tracked 296km east of Hobart.
The three-vessel PLA-N Task Group
107 is under surveillance by
Australian and New Zealand militaries.
While Australia respects freedom of
navigation in international waters,
officials expressed concern about
inadequate notice for the live-fire
exercises, which disrupted flights.
Prime Minister Albanese confirmed
Australia filed an official
protest requesting better advance
notification for such activities."
"Gaza Strip
The IDF fired warning shots at vessels
off Gaza's coast that had violated
maritime security restrictions.
These vessels only returned to shore
after a second round of warning fire.
The IDF also states that troops fired
at individuals on land who approached
them and were deemed threatening.
The military has issued a renewed
call for Palestinian civilians
to follow IDF instructions, avoid
approaching deployed forces, and use
designated checkpoints for movement."
"Iraq
Turkey conducted artillery strikes on
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) positions
in Iraq's Duhok Province on Tuesday.
According to the Turkish Ministry of
Defense, they ""neutralized"" five PKK
members in northern Iraq's Gara region
and one PKK/YPG member in northern Syria.
Local sources observed smoke
rising from the shelled area in the
Mewin Valley, though no specific
casualty figures were provided."
"Lebanon
Lebanese media sources have claimed
an Israeli airstrike occurred in
eastern Lebanon's Beqaa Valley region.
According to the pro-Hezbollah outlet
al Mayadeen, the alleged strike resulted
in two fatalities and two injuries.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has
not yet issued any statement confirming
or denying the reported airstrike."
"Myanmar
A junta airstrike killed at least
nine people at a wedding ceremony
in Myanmar's Magway Region.
The attack occurred at a monastery
in Sonkone village near a
resistance-controlled oilfield.
According to a local defense organization
member, the military first dropped
a 500-pound bomb directly on the
food service area, then followed
with machine gun fire along the
road and throughout the oilfield."
"Somalia
Somali intelligence reported that
recent airstrikes in Hirshabelle state
killed 50 Al-Shabab members across three
operations: 17 fighters in Darul-Nimca
and Al-Kowthar, 19 in another Darul-Nimca
strike, and 12 in Beera Yabaal.
Some senior members were
reportedly among the casualties,
though they weren't identified.
On the same day as the strikes, Al-Shabab
launched pre-dawn attacks in Hiran
region villages, which were repelled by
Somali army forces and local militias."
"South Sudan
Airstrikes hit South Sudan's Upper
Nile region amid tensions between
government forces (SSPDF) and
armed civilian groups (White Army).
Two strikes occurred in different
locations with no reported casualties."
"Syria
Turkish fighter jets conducted airstrikes
in Aleppo countryside, targeting Sarin
town, Alloush mountain, and areas near
Qarrah Quzaq bridge, with witnesses
reporting explosions and smoke.
SDF and Turkish forces exchanged
artillery fire along the frontlines at
Teshreen Dam and Qarrah Quzaq Bridge.
Turkish-backed factions launched attacks
against SDF positions at multiple
locations, including Deir Hafer, where
Turkish drones also conducted strikes.
The clashes reportedly resulted in a
destroyed post, though no confirmed
casualties have been reported.
"
"Syria
Clashes broke out in Damascus between
Internal Security Forces and gunmen
led by Fawzi Layla, who is accused of
committing violations against civilians
while working for the Arab National
Guard Forces under the former regime.
Following the confrontation in the
Teshreen neighborhood of the Al-Qaboun
area, security forces arrested Layla
and three of his associates amid
deteriorating security in the region."
"Taiwan
The Taiwanese Ministry of National
Defense reported monitoring significant
Chinese military activity around
Taiwan over a 24-hour period,
including 14 naval ships, 12 military
aircraft, and one official ship.
Ten of the aircraft crossed the Taiwan
Strait median line into Taiwan's air
defense identification zone, and two
Chinese balloons were also detected.
Taiwan responded by deploying aircraft,
naval ships, and coastal missile
systems to monitor these activities."
"Ukraine
Russian forces struck Zolochiv in the
Kharkiv region with two guided aerial
bombs on February 25 around 11:30 a.m.,
damaging approximately 50
private and apartment buildings,
outbuildings, cars, and a power plant.
Two women (ages 48 and 78) were injured.
Three additional bombs hit other
settlements in the Zolochiv community."
"Ukraine
The Russian military shelled Antonivka
after midnight, injuring a 56-year-old
man who was indoors during the attack.
According to Roman Mrochko, head of
the Kherson CMA, the victim suffered
explosive and closed head injuries,
contusion, and shrapnel wounds.
The injured man is currently
receiving medical care."
"Ukraine
A 44-year-old woman was injured
during a Russian attack in the
Obukhiv district of Kyiv region
and was subsequently hospitalized.
The attack partially destroyed a
private house and outbuildings,
with additional damage to private
homes reported in Fastiv district."
"Ukraine
The Russian army conducted at least
eight air strikes on Huliaipole
in the Zaporizhzhia region.
One bomb landed in a field without
exploding, while others hit
residential houses, causing fires.
Fortunately, no casualties were reported.
Emergency services were deployed
to neutralize the unexploded bomb."
"Ukraine
The Russian military attacked Kramatorsk
in Donetsk Oblast on February 25,
killing one person and injuring at least
16 others, including four children.
The attack targeted a residential
area, damaging at least 17 houses, with
rescue operations still in progress."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,300 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Over 290 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Russian forces attacked the village
of Stanislav in the Kherson region
with a drone, injuring a 50-year-old
man and a 38-year-old woman.
Both victims suffered blast
injuries and contusions but
were treated as outpatients."
"Ukraine
Russian forces shelled a regional
hospital in Kherson on February 25,
damaging windows and the boiler room.
No casualties were reported, but the
attack disrupted heating services,
affecting patients and nearby residents.
Emergency services are working to
restore heat supply to the hospital and
16 houses in the Tsentralnyi district
that lost heating due to the attack."
"Ukraine
Two women were injured in the
Russian shelling of Derhachi in
the Kharkiv region of Ukraine.
According to Oleh Syniehubov, head
of the Kharkiv Regional Military
Administration, the attack occurred
around 23:15, damaging private homes.
The women received medical treatment
at the scene, and specialized services
are working at the impact site."
"Ukraine
Russian forces attacked Sumy with
Shahed drones in the morning,
resulting in two people being injured.
The attack caused damage to window
glazing in two apartment buildings.
Additionally, an air strike using a
Shahed UAV targeted the Khotyn community,
with consequences still being assessed."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian defense forces successfully
intercepted 6 Russian Kh-101 cruise
missiles and 133 Shahed-type attack
drones during a large-scale air
attack that began on February 24.
Russia launched a total of 213
attack and decoy drones from various
locations, along with seven cruise
missiles from strategic aircraft.
The attack affected multiple regions,
including Kyiv and Zhytomyr, resulting
in several civilian casualties - a woman
and two children were injured in the
Zhytomyr region, and a 44-year-old woman
was hospitalized in the Kyiv region with
leg wounds from falling drone debris."
"Ukraine
Russian troops attacked a border village
in the Chernihiv region of Ukraine
on February 25 with unguided aerial
missiles, causing eight explosions.
A 78-year-old local resident was wounded
with shrapnel to the leg and hospitalized.
The attack also damaged
a residential building.
This incident occurred on the
same day that Russia launched
cruise missiles, triggering air
raid alerts throughout Ukraine."
Terrorism
"Colombia
A bomb explosion occurred outside
a police station in Morales,
southwest Colombia on Tuesday.
The explosive device was likely
attached to a motorcycle.
The blast injured 17 people, including
three children and two police
officers, with a seven-year-old
girl suffering serious injuries
requiring hospitalization.
The explosion scattered
debris across the street."
"India
The Baloch Liberation Army attacked
a convoy linked to the Saindak
mining project in Pakistan-occupied
Balochistan, killing seven military
personnel and injuring eleven others.
Using an IED and heavy weapons,
they disabled eleven vehicles
and briefly detained a Baloch
driver before releasing him."
"India
Security forces successfully
defused an IED hidden inside a beer
bottle, allegedly planted by Maoists
to target patrolling personnel.
The explosive was discovered during
a routine patrol about 100 meters
off an unpaved road between security
camps at Pedia and Mutwendi.
The CRPF Bomb Disposal Squad neutralized
the pressure-activated IED on site,
preventing potential casualties."
"Israel
Sirens sounded in several Golan Heights
communities near the Syrian border,
warning of a potential drone infiltration.
The IDF reported firing interceptor
missiles at a suspicious aerial
target and stated that they are
currently investigating the incident."
"Kenya
A KDF soldier was killed and four
others injured in an IED explosion
in Elwak, Mandera County, on Monday.
The incident occurred during a
joint patrol near Lafey junction,
about 15km outside Elwak.
Al-Shabaab terrorists are
suspected to be behind the attack."
"Mexico
A 74-year-old Brownsville rancher,
Antonio Céspedes Saldierna, was
killed when his truck triggered an
explosive device while driving on his
ranch in San Fernando, Tamaulipas.
Two passengers were also in the
vehicle: Horacio Lopez Peña, who died
in the explosion, and Peña's wife,
Ninfa Griselda Ortega, who survived
but required hospitalization."
"Pakistan
Four Pakistani security personnel
were killed and two injured in a
militant attack on a checkpoint in
North Waziristan on February 24.
Three militants also died in the clash.
This incident reflects escalating
violence across Pakistan, particularly
in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and
Balochistan regions, where armed
attacks have increased significantly."
"Philippines
Philippine authorities detained
two Chinese nationals for using an
""IMSI catcher"" device to intercept
communications near sensitive
sites in Manila, including the
presidential palace and military bases.
Three Filipino accomplices
were also arrested.
This follows several
similar arrests in January."
"Somalia
Somali pirates released a Yemeni-flagged
fishing boat, Saytuun-2, on Sunday
after it was hijacked on February
17 off the coast of Somalia.
According to the EU Naval Force (Eunavfor)
Atalanta, the pirates stole some
belongings before abandoning the vessel.
This is the second pirate attack in
the area in recent weeks, prompting
warnings for vessels transiting
the area to exercise caution."
"Syria
The excerpt reports an incident
where unidentified gunmen threw
grenades at a civilian's house near
Judi roundabout in Al-Hasakah city.
While no casualties were reported,
details about material damage from recent
clashes and airstrikes remain unclear.
The motives for the grenade
attack are currently unknown."
"Syria
A graveyard was discovered in southern
Damascus containing the remains of
over 20 people, including children.
The site was located in a building
previously used as a detention center by
the former regime in the Sabinah area.
Some bodies showed evidence of
gunshot wounds, while others
appeared to have been burned."
"Taiwan
A submarine communications cable
between Taiwan and Penghu was cut on
Tuesday morning, with a Togo-flagged,
Chinese-owned ship named Hongtai
168 suspected to be responsible.
The Coast Guard is investigating
this as a national security issue
and hasn't ruled out the possibility
of a ""Chinese gray zone intrusion
operation,"" though it remains unclear
if the incident was intentional.
The ship, which has a Chinese owner
and eight Chinese crew members, was
found anchored near the site and later
escorted to Anping Port in Tainan.
Communications to Penghu
Islands weren't disrupted as
a backup cable was activated."
Civil Unrest
"Kenya
Technical University of Nairobi
students clashed with police on Tuesday
while protesting their institution's
indefinite closure since February 3.
The closure followed staff strikes
over unpaid salaries, forcing
students to vacate campus residences.
Demonstrators marching to the
Education Ministry were met with
tear gas in what was their second
protest after previously storming the
Vice-Chancellor's office on February 19."
"Pakistan
Pakistani authorities have arrested
two Afghan women - Fatima Sadat,
a women's rights activist, and
Fatima Sahid (also referred to
as Faheema Zahid), a journalist.
These arrests are part of Pakistan's
intensified campaign to detain
and deport Afghan migrants,
with thousands facing expulsion.
Many of these refugees fled Afghanistan
following the Taliban takeover in 2021."
Accidents
"China
A passenger boat collided with an
oil waste recovery vessel on the
Yuanshui River in Hunan Province,
China, on Tuesday morning.
The passenger boat capsized and
sank, resulting in 2 confirmed
deaths and 14 people still missing
from the 19 passengers onboard.
Three survivors were rescued and are
now hospitalized in stable condition.
Over 60 rescue workers with more than
10 boats are searching for the missing
people, and authorities have launched
an investigation into the incident."
"South Korea
A highway construction site in
Cheonan, South Korea, experienced a
tragic collapse on Tuesday, resulting
in three deaths and five injuries.
The accident involved a bridge deck
collapsing at the site, as shown in
footage aired by broadcaster YTN.
In response, Acting President Choi
Sang-mok has ordered the mobilization
of all available resources for rescue
operations and to implement safety
measures to prevent further incidents."
"Sudan
A Sudanese military Antonov aircraft
crashed in Omdurman's Al-Thawra
area shortly after takeoff from
Wadi Saydna due to a fire that
broke out at the back of the plane.
The crash resulted in the deaths of
several senior Sudanese army officers
and three civilians, with the cause
reportedly being a technical failure.
Local sources have provided information
about the incident, but authorities have
not yet released an official statement."
"Syria
Two separate landmine incidents in Syria.
In the first, a civilian was injured by
an old landmine explosion in Al-Rahba area
near Rashidah town in eastern Al-Suwaidaa.
In the second incident, a civilian
herding sheep in Afes village in
eastern Idlib was injured by shrapnel
from another old landmine explosion."
"United States
A medical helicopter crashed
Monday night between Pender and New
Hanover counties, with authorities
receiving reports around 7:47 p.m.
that an aircraft went
down near Sidbury Road.
Emergency responders from the New
Hanover County Sheriff's Office
and Fire Rescue attended the scene.
All three occupants were safely
rescued and transported to
Novant Health for treatment.
Officials are continuing to
investigate the cause of the crash."
"United States
A Starduster 2 airplane
crashed Monday around 2:45 p.m.
in a field near Azle in an
unincorporated area of Tarrant County.
The two people on board escaped with
minor injuries, but the aircraft
caught fire and was completely
destroyed despite firefighters'
efforts to extinguish the blaze.
The privately owned plane went
down behind homes in the 4000
block of Silver View Lane.
The Tarrant County Sheriff's Office,
FAA, and NTSB are investigating the
incident, though the cause of the
crash and fire remains unknown."
Other Events
"Japan
The 6th India-Japan joint military
exercise Dharma Guardian began
Monday at Japan's East Fuji Training
Area, featuring company-strength
participation for the first time.
Running until March 9, it focuses on
urban warfare and counter-terrorism
operations under UN mandate.
The exercise aims to enhance
interoperability between the
Indian Army and Japan Ground
Self-Defense Force through tactical
drills and coordinated planning."
Thanks for joining us for the February
26, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
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