Trump lays out plan for Gaza, M23 rebels declare a ceasefire, and China retaliates with tariffs
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 5, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
We collected 62 events on Tuesday,
including China's plans for tariff
retaliation, Trump's plans for Gaza, and
M23's ceasefire, so let's get started.
Terrorism
"Central African Republic
On Monday, a rebel group known as
the Coalition of Patriots for Change
(CPC) attacked a military outpost
in the village of Kouki in the
northwestern prefecture of Ouham in
the Central African Republic (CAR).
According to an army official
and city councilor, at least five
soldiers were killed, and several
others were severely injured."
"Haiti
Heavily armed gangs in Haiti have attacked
the affluent Kenscoff neighborhood in
Port-au-Prince, leaving at least 40 dead.
The Viv Ansanm gang coalition
is blamed for the violence.
Gangs already control 85% of the
capital, and the United Nations warned
they could soon overrun the city."
"India
A day after militants killed a retired
soldier and injured his wife and niece
in south Kashmir, over 500 people, mostly
relatives of Kashmiri militants based in
Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir,
were detained by Jammu and Kashmir Police.
The detentions were made to send
a message to militants operating
from across the border that
such attacks won't be tolerated.
This is the first time that family
members and relatives of Pakistan-based
Kashmiri militants have been
detained in such large numbers."
"India
National Investigation Agency
(NIA) operatives arrested a
Hizb-ut-Tahrir militant supporter
during an operation in Chennai.
The individual was charged with
propagating an extremist ideology.
He was also involved in organizing an
exhibition to showcase the military
might of Islamic nations that would be
invited to overthrow the Indian government
by waging violent jihad and war."
"India
During an anti-Naxal/Maoist operation
in Chhattisgarh's Bijapur district
on Tuesday, two security personnel
sustained injuries in an improvised
explosive device (IED) blast.
At the same time, another was wounded
after stepping on a concealed spike trap.
The incidents occurred in
a forested region along the
Bijapur-Dantewada border."
"India
The National Investigation Agency
(NIA) apprehended a suspected
Hizb-ut-Tahrir militant supporter
during an operation in Mannargudi.
The NIA charged the individual with
disseminating an extremist ideology.
Authorities also alleged that the
suspect was involved in organizing
an exhibition intended to showcase
the military capabilities of Islamic
nations to incite violent jihad and war
to overthrow the Indian government."
"India
On Thursday, the National Investigation
Agency (NIA) in Chattisgarh State
arrested two Naxal/Maoist rebel
overground workers (OGWs) in connection
with the 2023 Chhattisgarh IED Blast
Case, which occurred on November 17,
2023, during the state assembly polls.
The arrested individuals provided
logistical support to the
perpetrators of the IED explosion."
"India
On Monday, Manipur police arrested
five active members of the Kangleipak
Communist Party (KCP - City Meitei)
during an operation in Mantripukhri
Thakurbari, Imphal East district.
Police seized one 9mm pistol
along with a magazine loaded
with 11 live rounds, two nos.
of 36 HE Hand Grenade, three mobile
phones, one sling bag, a sum of Rs 5700,
and a four-wheeler during the operation."
"India
On Monday, police arrested a member
of the People's Revolutionary Party
of Kangleipak (PREPAK-PRO) during
an operation in the Yairipok Bazar
area of the Thoubal district."
"India
On Monday, Security forces and Manipur
police recovered and defused two
IEDs-one weighing 4 kg and the other
2 kg, at Moirangpurel Khunou Leikai
near Thoubal Dam-Police Station."
"India
On Monday, a joint security team clashed
with an armed Maoist in the North
Bastar-Maar area near the inter-district
border of Kanker and Narayanpur,
resulting in the Maoist's death.
Security forces recovered an
automatic weapon and other
materials after the encounter."
"Iraq
On Tuesday, Iraqi intelligence
forces arrested three ISIS
militants in Saladin Governorate.
The Iraqi Intelligence and Investigations
Agency conducted the operation
in a specialized mission aimed at
eliminating ISIS presence in the area."
"Iraq
On Tuesday, a member of ISIS
was arrested in Diyala province
by Iraqi security forces.
The detainee, identified as A.N.A,
had been involved in multiple crimes
against residents of the province
before fleeing to northern Iraq."
"Nigeria
The Edo State Police Command has
announced the rescue of a police
officer and two others who gunmen
abducted on January 29, 2025.
The victims were rescued by
command operatives in the Ubiaja
division, working in partnership
with local hunters and vigilantes."
"Nigeria
Gunmen suspected to be bandits
have kidnapped 10 travelers on the
Owo/Benin expressway in Ondo State.
The victims were abducted while traveling
from the southern part of the country
to Lagos in a commercial vehicle.
The bandits forced the vehicle to stop and
marched the victims into a thick forest."
"Thailand
On Tuesday, an IED inside a car in
the Yi Ngor district exploded in
front of a defense volunteer unit.
The vehicle belonged to an assistant
chief district officer and had been
submerged underwater for several
days during the recent flooding.
After undergoing major repairs
at a garage, the owner had only
recently retrieved the vehicle.
However, the car was subsequently
destroyed in an explosion,
though no one was injured."
"Thailand
Tuesday morning, an improvised explosive
device (IED) placed near the left rear
wheel of a police officerâs pick-up
truck parked in front of the station
exploded in the Si Sakhon district.
There were no casualties in the blast."
"Turkey
Turkish police have detained 46
people in operations against Daesh,
with one suspect still at large.
The Counterterrorism Bureau
issued detention warrants for 47
suspects involved in terrorist
groups and their financiers.
The suspects were in contact with
Daesh members in conflict zones,
and operations were conducted in
Istanbul and three other cities."
"United States
A shooter, an 83-year-old man
named Dennis Brandl, fired two
shots, injuring a 26-year-old at
a high school band competition.
However, he was quickly tackled by
a parent and restrained by others
until law enforcement arrived.
The motive for the shooting is
unknown, but the bystanders'
actions are being praised as heroic.
Brandl claimed he was being
chased and feared for his life.
He is currently in custody without bond."
"West Bank
Two IDF reservists were killed, and
eight were wounded in a shooting attack
near the West Bank village of Tayasir.
The assailant managed to sneak up to an
IDF post and opened fire on soldiers.
The attacker was killed
while trying to flee.
Two of the wounded soldiers
are in serious condition."
Military Conflict
"Gaza Strip
The IDF fired warning shots in response
to Palestinian suspects approaching troops
in multiple areas of the Gaza Strip.
In one incident, a suspect was
shot after failing to withdraw.
A drone strike was also carried
out as a warning to prevent a car
from using an unapproved route.
Vehicular traffic is only allowed
on the Salah a-Din road, where
Palestinian cars are inspected.
The Israeli Navy spotted a Palestinian
vessel that crossed a maritime
boundary, but it returned to the
coast of Gaza after warning shots."
"Iraq
On Tuesday, authorities cautioned
residents of three northeastern villages
in Duhok province against returning
home due to ongoing clashes and shelling
between the Turkish military and
the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
The warning included the villages
of Napakhi, Birkikore, and Kafia,
as well as surrounding areas."
"Myanmar
Sunday evening, Kachin Independence
Army (KIA) insurgents captured
the Artillery Battalion 366
headquarters in Bhamo Township.
A KIA spokesman stated that attacks
continue on the nearby 21 Military
Operations Command (MOC) headquarters."
"Nigeria
The Adamawa Police Command, in
collaboration with local security
outfits, raided a kidnappers'
hideout in the mountains of Holma.
During the operation, one
kidnapper was killed, while
others escaped with bullet wounds.
A suspect was apprehended at the scene,
and a cache of weapons was recovered.
The police are investigating
and seeking to apprehend the
remaining members of the gang."
"Pakistan
On Monday, a special police squad
launched an anti-terrorist search
operation in the Lakki Marwat district,
killing a key terrorist commander
during a clash with several militants.
Police also arrested
several other militants.
Police recovered an AK 47 rifle,
magazines, and hand grenades
from the dead terrorist."
"Philippines
The air forces of the Philippines and
the United States conducted joint patrols
over the South China Sea, angering China.
The exercise aimed to enhance
operational coordination and
improve air domain awareness.
China accused the Philippines
of undermining peace and
stability in the region."
"Russia
Ukraine's Air Force launched a
high-precision strike on a Russian command
post near Novoivanivka, Kursk region.
The strike was carefully planned
to minimize risks to civilians.
Additionally, the Ukrainian forces
struck the Volgograd oil refinery and
the Astrakhan gas processing plant."
"Sudan
On Tuesday, shelling by Rapid Support
Forces paramilitaries killed five
people, including hospital volunteers,
outside Al-Nao Hospital in Omdurman,
a city adjacent to Khartoum,
according to a medical source."
"Sudan
On Tuesday, Rapid Support Forces
(RSF) shelling on the city
of Umm Ruwaba resulted in an
unspecified number of casualties.
The Sudanese forces recently
retook control of Umm Ruwaba,
previously controlled by the RSF."
"Sudan
At least 40 people were killed and 70
others injured in an artillery strike
on Kadugli, the capital of South
Kordofan, according to medical sources.
The attack was attributed to a
faction of the Sudan People's
Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N)
led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu.
This SPLM-N group has engaged in ongoing
clashes with both the Sudanese Armed
Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary
Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since
the outbreak of war in April 2023."
"Sudan
A Sudanese air strike on the capital
of South Darfur, Nyala, killed 25
people and wounded 63 on Monday,
according to a medical source.
The attack targeted the Cinema District
in Nyala, an area under the control
of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
In a statement released on Monday, the
RSF accused the Sudanese army of using
""barrel bombs"" against civilians
in several neighborhoods of Nyala."
"Sudan
On Monday, the Sudanese army claimed to
have broken the siege of its headquarters
in the town of al-Alafun east of Khartoum
by the paramilitary Rapid Support
Forces (RSF), which had encircled the
base since the war began in April 2023.
The army reported that Bahri (Khartoum
North) and Omdurman troops had
merged with forces stationed at the
General Command of the Armed Forces.
Sudanese forces planned to advance towards
the Soba Bridge, a crucial crossing
connecting the capital's eastern part
to the city center, where Rapid Support
Forces (RSF) are heavily deployed."
"Syria
SDF rocket launchers targeted
Turkish-backed forces in Manbij,
killing three militiamen and
shooting down two drones.
They also attacked a Turkish
base, injuring soldiers and
destroying military sites.
Turkish fighter jets conducted
airstrikes on SDF positions.
SDF acknowledged the death of four
fighters in clashes with Turkish forces."
"Syria
Factions of the National Army released
ten fighters of the Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF) in Manbij after a ransom
of $5,000 USD per fighter was paid.
The fighters had been captured in
tunnels during a raid on Manbij."
"Syria
Turkish fighter jets conducted airstrikes
on various locations in the Ain Al-Arab
(Kobane) countryside in eastern Aleppo.
They targeted an airport, Sarin Silos,
Saifi Hill, and a water station,
causing damage and disruption.
Turkish drones also attacked the
Teshrin Dam and its surroundings."
"Taiwan
Taiwan tracked 11 Chinese military
aircraft and six naval vessels
around its country between 6 a.m.
on Monday and 6 a.m.
on Tuesday.
Four aircraft crossed the Taiwan
Strait median line in the countryâs
northern and southwestern Air
Defense Identification Zone."
"Ukraine
On February 3, one resident of the
Donetsk region was killed, and two
others were wounded by Russian forces,
according to Vadym Filashkin, head
of the regional state administration.
The incident occurred in Pokrovsk."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,270 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Over 325 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
The Russian army attacked the Synelnykove
district in the Dnipropetrovsk
region with a kamikaze drone,
resulting in the death of a civilian.
The district was also shelled,
causing damage to private houses,
vehicles, and infrastructure.
The Nikopol district was targeted
throughout the day, with explosions
heard in nearby communities.
The Russian attacks caused damage to
buildings, vehicles, and power lines, but
no civilian casualties were reported."
"Ukraine
In the Pecherskyi district of Kyiv,
debris from a downed Russian drone was
found in an unfinished 18-story building.
No casualties or destruction were
reported, but a window in a primary
healthcare center was damaged.
Windows in educational institutions,
healthcare centers, and utility
buildings were also damaged,
but there were no casualties."
"Ukraine
In Cherkasy, three private enterprises
caught fire due to Russian drone attacks.
The Russian forces launched a massive
attack using strike drones, but the
Ukrainian air defense forces successfully
destroyed 12 Shahed-type drones.
There were no casualties reported,
but firefighting efforts are still
ongoing at one of the enterprises."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces have successfully
shot down 37 drones launched by
Russian troops, with an additional 28
drones failing to reach their targets.
The enemy launched 65 strike UAVs and
other drones from multiple directions.
Ukraine deployed anti-aircraft missile
troops, electronic warfare units, and
mobile fire teams to counter the attack."
"Ukraine
The Russian army launched a missile
attack on the town of Izium in the
Kharkiv region, resulting in at
least four deaths and 17 injuries.
The attack targeted the center of
the city, causing significant damage
to infrastructure and housing."
"Ukraine
Russian forces shelled civilian
infrastructure in Krasnopillia, Sumy
region, resulting in the death of
one man and the injury of another.
This attack is part of a series
of shelling incidents in the
Sumy region by Russian forces."
"Ukraine
Russian forces carried out 99 shelling
attacks on border communities in Sumy
region, resulting in 162 explosions.
The areas targeted included Khotyn,
Yunakivka, Myropillia, Bilopillia,
Krasnopillia, Velykopysarivka,
Nova Sloboda, Esman, Shalyhyne,
Seredyno-Buda, and Znob-Novhorod.
The attacks involved the use of mortars,
FPV drones, UAVs, MLRS, and glide bombs.
One civilian was injured, and
several buildings were damaged."
"Ukraine
The number of casualties from a missile
strike in Izium, Kharkiv region, has
increased to 55, with five fatalities.
The missile strike damaged several
buildings and caused injuries to
employees of various institutions."
"West Bank
Palestinian media reports an
Israeli drone strike in Tamun,
near the site of a shooting attack.
The IDF has not commented on the strike."
Political Conflict
"China
China has responded to President
Trump's tariffs on Chinese products
by imposing tariffs on select U.S.
imports.
They have also announced an antitrust
investigation into Google and
implemented other trade measures.
This is not the first trade war between
the two countries, but China is better
prepared this time with measures that cut
across different sectors of the economy.
The Chinese tariffs will affect
coal, liquefied natural gas, crude
oil, agricultural machinery, and
large-engine cars imported from the U.S.
China has also announced export
controls on critical minerals
used in high-tech products.
Additionally, China is investigating
Google for antitrust violations and
has placed two American companies
on an unreliable entities list."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
M23 rebels announced that a unilateral
ceasefire would begin on Tuesday.
This comes after the UN health agency
reported that at least 900 people were
killed in the recent fighting between
the rebels and Congolese forces.
The rebels stated that they did not
intend to capture Bukavu, another
provincial capital, and were committed
to protecting the civilian population.
The announcement coincides with
a regional summit and a call from
the Group of Seven for parties to
return to the negotiating table."
"Turkey
Syria's interim president, Ahmed
al-Sharaa, visited Turkey to discuss
economic recovery and security.
Turkey, with close ties to
Sharaa, is offering assistance
for Syria's reconstruction.
In return, Turkey wants support
from Damascus against Kurdish
militants in northeastern Syria."
"United States
President Donald Trump suggested
that displaced Palestinians in Gaza
be permanently resettled outside the
territory and proposed the US take
""ownership"" in redeveloping the area.
Trump's proposal could disrupt talks
to extend the ceasefire between
Israel and Hamas and secure the
release of remaining hostages.
Trump wants to relocate roughly 1.8
million people from Gaza and turn it
into ""the Riviera of the Middle East.""
Egypt, Jordan, and other U.S.
allies have cautioned against
relocating Palestinians, as it
could threaten stability and
undermine the two-state solution.
Trump also mentioned the
possibility of deploying U.S.
troops for reconstruction and reconsidered
an independent Palestinian state."
Civil Unrest
"Afghanistan
Afghanistan's Taliban authorities
raided Radio Begum, a women's radio
station, and arrested two employees.
The information ministry has
suspended the station's operations.
The broadcaster is calling for
the quick release of its staff."
"Israel
Hundreds of protesters marched in
Mazraâa to demand an end to the cycle
of violence that claimed the life of Dr.
Abdallah Awad, a pediatrician
murdered at a health clinic.
The White Coats group, representing
healthcare professionals,
expressed concern over the spread
of violence in Arab society."
"Tajikistan
On Monday, at least five prisoners linked
to the Islamic State were killed in a
riot at a prison in Vahdat, Tajikistan,
after they attempted to escape by
attacking guards with homemade knives.
The attack involved nine prisoners.
Three prison employees were
seriously injured, including the
head of the prison's administration.
The prisoners involved had been
convicted over links to Islamic State
and the Jihadi Salafi movement."
Active Shooting
"Sweden
Swedish police have reported that
around 10 people were killed in a
shooting at a school in central Sweden.
The suspected perpetrator is
believed to be among the dead.
Several others were
injured in the incident.
The motive for the attack
is still being investigated.
The shooting took place at the
Risbergska school for adults, which is
located on a campus with other schools.
The public was advised to
stay away from the area."
Accidents
"Afghanistan
A coal mine collapse in Dara-e-Suf
district of Samangan province has
resulted in two deaths and one injury,
according to local Taliban officials.
The incident occurred in the
Shakol Sheikha area on Monday."
"India
Two goods trains collided and derailed
in Uttar Pradesh's Fatehpur district,
causing disruption in railway services.
No crew members were injured.
The collision occurred when
one train crashed into another
that was waiting for a signal.
Railway authorities are investigating
the cause of the crash and
working to restore normalcy."
"Kenya
The walls of a gold mine collapsed,
trapping at least 12 miners,
while eight more were rescued.
A rescue operation is underway."
"Syria
A young man was killed and two
others were injured by an old
landmine in Al-Bulaiyl town.
Two little girls were also injured by
an unexploded object in Al-Naâemah town.
Three children were seriously injured
by an old landmine in Al-Yanli village."
"Syria
A young man was killed, and
his sister was injured in a
landmine explosion in Deir Ezzor.
Additionally, a child was
injured in a separate landmine
explosion in Ariha, Idlib.
Furthermore, another young man succumbed
to his injuries from a landmine
explosion in Al-Boleil Town, Deir Ezzor."
"United States
A pilot made a crash landing at
Wahoo Airport but was uninjured.
The front landing gear of the plane
collapsed after landing, causing
a prop strike on the runway.
The pilot was the only person on board.
The Federal Aviation Administration
is conducting an investigation."
"United States
No injuries were reported in
a train derailment near Route
759 and Oak Street in St.
Joseph.
Local authorities are asking residents to
avoid the area as cleanup efforts begin.
The derailment was caused by a
broken piece of track, resulting
in two engines derailing.
Union Pacific will be responsible
for cleaning up the derailed
engines and any spilled diesel."
"Thanks for joining us for the February
5, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
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