Rubio visits Israel as posturing begins on the next phase in Gaza
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 17, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
We collected and mapped 46
events on Sunday, including
Marco Rubio's visit to Israel.
Let's go ahead and get started.
Political Conflict
"Egypt
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi
met with World Jewish Congress head
Ronald Lauder, emphasizing that a
Palestinian state is essential for
lasting peace in the Middle East.
El-Sissi advocated for Gaza's
reconstruction without displacing
its residents, directly opposing US
President Trump's controversial proposal
to redevelop Gaza into a ""Riviera of
the Middle East"" by relocating its
Palestinian residents to other countries.
Arab leaders, including those
from Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and
UAE, planned to meet in Riyadh to
discuss Trump's proposal, followed
by an Arab League summit in Cairo."
"Gaza Strip
Hamas accused Israel of violating the
January 19 ceasefire after an Israeli
drone strike killed three Hamas police
officers near Rafah, claiming the
officers were securing aid deliveries.
The IDF provided a different account,
stating that the strike targeted
armed individuals who were approaching
Israeli forces in the area."
"Israel
Israel received a previously delayed
shipment of MK-84 2,000-lb bombs
from the United States, which
arrived at Ashdod Port and was
distributed to Israeli airbases.
Defense Minister Israel Katz praised
the delivery, which was approved
by the Trump administration, as
evidence of strong US-Israel ties."
"Israel
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
in Jerusalem as part of his first
Middle East tour in his new position.
After the meeting between the
two, Rubio met with an expanded
group of Israeli leaders.
The visit occurs amid controversy
over President Trump's proposal
to place Gaza under US control and
relocate its 2+ million residents."
"Israel
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
emphasized Iran's role as the primary
destabilizing force in the Middle
East, linking it to various regional
conflicts, including Gaza, the West
Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.
He stressed US-Israeli alignment on
goals, particularly in strengthening
Lebanon to counter Hezbollah.
Rubio affirmed that a nuclear Iran is
unacceptable and praised Israel as a
model of democracy and pluralism in
the Middle East, suggesting that more
countries following Israel's example
would lead to greater regional stability."
"Lebanon
Hezbollah is pressuring Lebanon's
government to reverse its ban on
Iranian flights landing in Beirut.
The ban was implemented after
Israel warned that Iran's Quds Force
and Hezbollah were using civilian
flights to smuggle money for weapons.
While Israel has repeatedly accused
Hezbollah of using Beirut's airport to
import Iranian weapons, both Hezbollah and
Lebanese authorities deny these claims.
The flight restrictions came after U.S.
warnings about potential Israeli
strikes on the airport, with Lebanon
reportedly denying landing permission
to Iranian flights twice in one week."
"Venezuela
President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela
has proposed constitutional reforms
aimed at restructuring territorial
divisions and diversifying the economy.
The plan would establish
communes while reducing the role
of municipalities and states.
Critics view this as a power
consolidation move, particularly
following the disputed July elections.
The proposal requires two-thirds
legislative approval followed
by public consultation.
A similar reform attempt by
former president Hugo Chávez
was rejected by voters in 2007."
Terrorism
"Austria
A 23-year-old Syrian asylum seeker
randomly stabbed six people in
Villach, Austria, killing a 14-year-old
boy and injuring five others.
The attacker, who had a valid residence
permit and no criminal record, was stopped
by a food delivery driver who rammed him
with a vehicle, was injured, and arrested.
Police are investigating
possible accomplices and motives.
The incident sparked political
reactions, with Carinthia's governor
calling for harsh consequences
and far-right leader Herbert Kickl
demanding stricter asylum policies."
"India
Security forces successfully defused
a 5 KG IED planted by Maoists near
the Laisaldih area in West Singhbhum's
Goilkera Police Station jurisdiction.
The operation, involving multiple
CRPF battalions, Jharkhand Jaguar, and
local police, prevented a potential
attack on security personnel."
"India
Security forces intensified operations
in Manipur, recovering 15 IEDs and
various weapons while arresting 16
insurgents across different districts.
The arrests included seven members of
the Kuki National Group, four KCP cadres,
and others from various locations.
Forces also dismantled unauthorized
Kuki checkpoints where travelers
were being charged for passes."
"Nigeria
A Catholic priest, Reverend Father Maurice
Livinus, and two other kidnap victims
have been freed in Rivers State, Nigeria.
They were originally abducted on February
12, 2025, while returning from a hospital
visit along the Elele-Isiokpo road.
Their release on February 16, 2025, came
after coordinated pressure from security
forces, including police, military
(JTF Isiokpo), and local vigilantes.
The victims have been reunited with
their families and are receiving
medical attention while authorities
continue to search for the kidnappers."
"Somalia
Security forces in Puntland conducted
a nighttime operation resulting in
the arrest of 7 individuals suspected
of having ties to the Islamic State.
The operation, which took place at
an undisclosed location, is part of
Puntland's ongoing counter-terrorism
efforts that have successfully liberated
several areas from extremist control."
"South Sudan
Three people were killed and one
injured in an armed ambush on a
vehicle near the Koattong border
between Unity State's Mayom County
and Warrap State in South Sudan.
The attack targeted a car
traveling from Juba to Bentiu.
Unity State officials confirmed the
incident, and the sole survivor is
receiving treatment at Mayom Hospital.
No group has claimed
responsibility for the attack."
"South Sudan
An armed attack in Nasir,
South Sudan, resulted in 10
soldiers killed and 21 injured.
The army spokesperson blamed
the SPLM-IO opposition party for
inciting local youths to conduct the
ambush, while the opposition denied
involvement and claimed the army
had initially attacked civilians."
"Syria
A brief clash occurred at Al-Andalus
Square in Latakia when two armed
individuals on a motorcycle
attacked a General Security
checkpoint with a hand grenade.
One security member was wounded in
the incident, and the attackers,
identified as being affiliated with
the former regime, managed to escape."
"Syria
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
conducted a successful security operation
in Deir Ezzor, capturing ISIS cell leader
Abdulrahman Al-Aziz and two other members.
The cell was involved in multiple
attacks against SDF, civilians, and
public institutions while also gathering
intelligence for ISIS leadership."
Military Conflict
"Gaza Strip
The IDF conducted a drone strike in
central Gaza as a warning to suspects
attempting to travel north using an
unauthorized route, violating ceasefire
terms that restrict northbound
traffic to the Salah a-Din road.
Additionally, the IDF fired warning
shots in various parts of Gaza
after Palestinians approached
areas with active IDF deployment."
"Gaza Strip
The IDF conducted an airstrike in the
Rafah area, targeting armed individuals
who were approaching Israeli forces.
According to Palestinian media, the
drone strike resulted in the deaths
of three Hamas police officers.
The IDF reiterated its warning
to Gaza residents to follow
military instructions and maintain
distance from deployed forces."
"Lebanon
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted
airstrikes on Hezbollah facilities deep
inside Lebanon, specifically near the
village of Harbata in the Beqaa Valley,
approximately 100 kilometers from Israel.
The strikes targeted rocket launchers
and other weapons belonging to Hezbollah.
The IDF stated that the presence of
terror operatives at these locations
violated existing agreements
between Israel and Lebanon."
"Lebanon
Lebanese media reported a woman's death
and several injuries from Israeli gunfire
in Houla, southern Lebanon, while the
IDF stated it fired warning shots at
suspects in the area and is investigating
the civilian casualty claims.
The incident occurred near the
Israel-Lebanon border, where
IDF troops remain deployed
despite an ongoing ceasefire.
The IDF also allegedly detained
three civilians in the town.
The military plans to withdraw from
most areas by February 18, maintaining
only five strategic positions, and has
been warning Lebanese citizens to avoid
areas with active troop presence."
"Philippines
Three China Coast Guard ships were spotted
35 nautical miles off El Nido, Palawan,
which experts consider a concerning
""show of strength"" in China's continued
assertion of territorial claims."
"Syria
A journalist lost their life when a
Turkish fighter jet conducted an airstrike
near Teshrin Dam in Aleppo's countryside.
The incident occurred while the journalist
was performing their professional
duties, covering events in that area."
"Syria
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
and Turkish-backed forces engaged
in mutual drone warfare near Aleppo.
SDF intercepted two kamikaze drones near
Teshreen Dam and launched their own drone
attacks against Turkish military positions
at Qarrah Quzaq Hill and Al-Hawshariyah."
"Syria
The Turkish military conducted multiple
strikes in Syria, including fighter
jet attacks near Qorah Qozak Bridge
and Sarin Airport in the Kobani area.
Additionally, a Turkish drone strike
targeted an Essential Protection
Forces truck near Al-Mahmoudli
in western Al-Raqqah, resulting
in one death and two injuries."
"Taiwan
The Canadian frigate HMCS Ottawa
conducted a transit through the Taiwan
Strait on Sunday, marking Canada's
sixth such passage since implementing
its Indo-Pacific Strategy in late 2022.
Taiwan's Foreign Ministry
expressed gratitude for Canada's
support of regional peace.
The Halifax-class vessel, carrying around
240 crew members, is currently deployed
in the Indo-Pacific region as part of
Operation Horizon and will return to its
home base in British Columbia in March."
"Taiwan
Taiwan's defense ministry reported Chinese
military activity around the island
on Saturday and Sunday, including five
aircraft, nine vessels, and a balloon.
Two Chinese aircraft breached Taiwan's
air defense identification zone (ADIZ),
prompting Taiwan to respond by deploying
its own aircraft, ships, and missile
systems to monitor the situation."
"Ukraine
During a massive nighttime attack
on February 16, Russian forces
targeted Mykolaiv, resulting in one
civilian injury and widespread damage.
A 64-year-old man was
hospitalized but remains stable.
The attack damaged a critical
infrastructure facility, causing a fire
that was quickly extinguished, along
with five apartment buildings, multiple
stores, a restaurant, and office spaces.
Ukrainian air defense forces
successfully intercepted nine
Shahed drones during the assault."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian air defense forces successfully
intercepted a massive drone attack,
shooting down 95 Shahed-type attack
drones while 46 Russian decoy drones
failed to reach their targets.
The attack, which occurred on February
16, involved 143 drones launched from
various Russian locations and two
ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea.
While Ukrainian forces effectively
repelled the assault using various defense
systems, some damage was reported in the
Kyiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched multiple
attacks in Ukraine's Kherson region,
wounding two police officers with an
FPV drone in the Korabelnyi district.
The attacks targeted several areas,
including Kherson, Antonivka,
Inzhenerne, Prydniprovske, and
Sadove, causing damage to civilian
infrastructure such as homes, educational
facilities, a shop, and vehicles.
The Russians used artillery,
multiple-launch rocket systems,
and drones in their assaults."
"Ukraine
Russian forces attacked critical
infrastructure in Mykolaiv, Ukraine,
damaging a thermal power plant and
leaving 46,000 subscribers without
heat during freezing temperatures.
The attack, which occurred on
February 16, was carried out using
UAVs (drones) and resulted in damage
to multiple buildings, including
apartments, stores, and a restaurant.
One person was injured."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched multiple
attacks on Ukraine's Nikopol
district, killing a 52-year-old
man and injuring a 74-year-old man.
The area endured about 15 Russian
attacks using artillery, kamikaze
drones, and UAV-dropped explosives.
The assault damaged numerous civilian
targets, including 15 private houses, two
businesses, 12 utility buildings, four
vehicles, gas pipelines, and power lines.
A private home in the Marhanets
community was also destroyed.
The attacks were reported by
the head of the Dnipropetrovsk
Regional Military Administration."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,730 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Around 215 pieces of equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Russian forces conducted a drone attack
on Beryslav in Ukraine's Kherson region,
targeting a facility that provided
essential services like power, water,
and food and a humanitarian hub.
The attack damaged the building's
entrance but caused no casualties."
"Ukraine
Russian forces shelled the town
of Bilytske in the Donetsk region,
killing two civilians and damaging
multiple structures, including six
multi-story buildings, an administrative
building, a shop, and a power line.
Vadym Filashkin, head of the Donetsk
Regional Military Administration,
reported the attack via Telegram
and urged frontline residents to
evacuate, stating that invaders were
deliberately targeting civilians."
"Ukraine
Russian forces conducted a military
strike on Poniativka in the Kherson
region, resulting in the injury
of a 29-year-old local resident.
The victim suffered an explosive
injury, concussion, and
bruising to his head and arm."
"Ukraine
Russian forces conducted 11 attacks
on the Donetsk region on February 15,
causing property damage in multiple
locations, including Pokrovsk,
Kostiantynivka, Ivanopillia, and Siversk.
While no casualties were reported,
the attacks damaged numerous private
homes, a garage, and vehicles."
Civil Unrest
"Bangladesh
Police used tear gas and water cannons
to disperse protesting assistant
teachers in Bangladesh whose appointments
were canceled by the High Court.
The teachers, attempting to march
to the Secretariat from a rally
at the National Museum, have been
protesting for 11 days to restore
6,500 canceled positions in Dhaka and
Chattogram government primary schools.
They argue their recruitment preceded the
Supreme Court's quota system redefinition
and was approved by government ministries.
The government has appealed to suspend
the High Court's decision, with a
hearing expected in the Supreme Court."
"Germany
Thousands gathered at the 2025
Munich Security Conference
for opposing demonstrations.
The main protest opposed NATO, arms
industry, and weapons deliveries
to Ukraine, while a separate
rally supported Ukraine's cause.
Over 2,500 people joined three major
anti-war demonstrations with the
motto ""peace-capable instead of
war-capable,"" also protesting planned
US missile deployment in Germany.
The pro-Ukraine rally featured
Ambassador Makeev and displays
of war victims' photos.
Turnout was lower than expected
following a recent vehicle
attack that injured 39 people.
About 5,000 police officers
ensured peaceful proceedings."
"Lebanon
Approximately 20 ultra-Orthodox
Jewish Israelis were detained after
illegally crossing into Lebanon while
attempting to visit the tomb of Rav
Ashi, a 4th-century Babylonian scholar.
The tomb, located near Manara in
the Galilee panhandle, sits on
the Blue Line between Israel and
Lebanon, surrounded by both IDF
and UNIFIL military installations.
The group was intercepted by IDF forces
and transferred to police custody.
Israeli police emphasized that illegal
border crossing carries a potential
prison sentence of up to four years."
"Syria
The General Security Service conducted
a security operation in Deir Ezzor
city's Harabish neighborhood, resulting
in the arrest of several high-ranking
former regime affiliates and National
Defence Forces (NDF) members.
Five key individuals were arrested,
including Rashid Al-Faraj (NDF branch
head) and others who were associated
with former commander Hassan Al-Ghadban.
The suspects face various accusations,
including war crimes, drug
trafficking, and civilian torture."
Weapons
"Israel
The Israeli Defense Forces
(IDF) successfully intercepted
a drone attempting to smuggle
weapons from Egypt into Israel.
After detecting the drone crossing
the border, IDF troops shot it
down and discovered it was carrying
an assault rifle and ammunition."
Accidents
"India
At least 18 people, including nine
women and five children, died in a
crowd crush at New Delhi railway station
while trying to board trains to the
Maha Kumbh Mela religious gathering.
The incident occurred Saturday night
when train delays and overcrowding
led to chaos for 10-15 minutes."
"Mali
A tragic gold mine collapse in Mali's
Kayes region killed over 40 people,
predominantly women, on Saturday.
The victims were searching
for gold in abandoned open-pit
areas when the earth caved in.
The exact death toll varies between 43
and 48, according to different sources.
As one of the world's major gold
producers, Mali frequently experiences
such accidents due to unregulated
mining activities and unsafe practices."
"Syria
A landmine explosion in the
Al-Bushra Desert, Deir Ezzor
countryside, injured three children
who were searching for truffles.
In a separate incident, another civilian
was wounded by a landmine while also
hunting for truffles in the Ghanem
Al-Ali area of eastern Al-Raqqa."
"Syria
Three children sustained severe
injuries when they played with
unexploded 23-caliber gunshots
near Maqsaf Al-Rabwa in Al-Mayadeen
City, Deir Ezzor countryside.
The children were transported to
a hospital for medical treatment.
In a separate incident, a civilian
lost their life when a landmine from
war remnants detonated in the northern
Aleppo countryside, within areas
controlled by the National Army."
"United States
A plane crash occurred near
Covington Municipal Airport in
Newton County on Saturday night,
resulting in two fatalities.
The single-engine aircraft lost
communication shortly after its 11 p.m.
takeoff, prompting FAA
notification to local police.
Officers discovered the crashed
plane in a wooded area north of
the runway, where both occupants
were pronounced dead at the scene.
The incident is currently under
investigation by the FAA and NTSB."
"Thanks for joining us for the February
17, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
As a reminder, complete reports with
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