Munich Security Conference brings some clarity as leaders plan for negotiations
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 15, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
We collected and mapped 59 events on
Friday, including updates from the Munich
Security Conference, so let's get started.
Political Conflict
"Gaza Strip
The International Committee of the
Red Cross (ICRC) is ""very concerned""
about the conditions of hostages
held by Hamas in Gaza, citing the
recent release of three hostages
who appeared gaunt and frail.
The ICRC is calling for dignified
and safe release operations and
access to the remaining captives.
Despite criticism for its handling
of the situation, the organization
insists that it will continue efforts
to secure the release of all hostages."
"Germany
The UK has imposed new sanctions
against Putin's allies, including
three high-profile figures: Deputy
Defense Minister Pavel Fradkov,
FSTEK head Vladimir Selin,
and businessman Artem Chaika.
Two entities linked to
Russia's nuclear energy company
Rosatom were also sanctioned.
Announced by Foreign Secretary David Lammy
at the Munich Security Conference, the
sanctions include asset freezes, trust
services restrictions, and travel bans."
"Germany
German Defense Minister
Pistorius criticized the U.S.
for removing Ukraine's NATO membership
and territorial integrity from
negotiations, calling it a mistake
at the Munich Security Conference.
He insisted these topics should only
be discussed with Ukraine present at
talks and stressed the necessity of
European involvement in negotiations.
This follows statements from Trump's
team suggesting Ukraine's pre-2014
borders are unrealistic to restore
and NATO membership is impractical.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov
responded by affirming Ukraine's
commitment to pursuing NATO membership."
"Germany
US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg has
urged direct talks between Putin
and Zelenskyy despite Putin's
refusal to recognize Zelenskyy's
legitimacy as Ukraine's president.
The call follows separate conversations
between Trump and both leaders,
where the Kremlin showed openness
to ""peaceful negotiations.""
However, concerns emerged when the US
President didn't acknowledge Ukraine
as an equal participant in peace talks.
Zelenskyy expressed worry about potential
exclusion from the peace process.
Kellogg maintains that both leaders
must engage in dialogue, and ""both
sides need to give up something."""
"Germany
US Vice President Vance met
Ukraine's President Zelensky in
Munich to discuss Trump's recent
peace initiative with Russia.
Vance emphasized pursuing a ""lasting
peace,"" while Zelensky expressed
willingness to meet Putin only after
establishing a ""common plan"" with Trump.
The meeting follows Trump's unexpected
announcement of peace talks with Putin,
raising concerns about Ukraine's position.
Both leaders described their
first meeting positively, with
plans for continued dialogue.
US officials assured Ukraine's
involvement in negotiations, though
Vance urged European allies to
increase defense capabilities."
"Israel
Israel will release 369 Palestinian
security prisoners tomorrow, including
36 serving life sentences, as part
of a hostage-prisoner exchange deal.
The prisoners, detained in the Gaza Strip,
were held after the October 7, 2023, war."
"Philippines
Former Philippine President Rodrigo
Duterte sparked controversy by
suggesting bombing senators to
create vacancies for opposition
candidates during a Manila rally.
His remarks, including a proposal
to kill 15 senators, came amid
tensions with President Marcos Jr.
and following his daughter Vice
President Sara Duterte's impeachment.
The comments are particularly sensitive
as Sara Duterte faces an upcoming
Senate trial, where a two-thirds
majority is needed for conviction.
The elder Duterte made these statements
while endorsing opposition candidates
for the May national elections
as he campaigns for Davao mayor."
"Russia
US Vice President JD Vance has warned
that the US could impose sanctions
and potentially take military action
against Russia if President Vladimir
Putin does not agree to a peace
deal with Ukraine that guarantees
Kyiv's long-term independence.
President Donald Trump has initiated
talks with Putin and Ukraine's
President Volodymyr Zelensky, stating
that Ukraine will have a seat at the
table during any peace negotiations."
"United States
U.S.
Indo-Pacific Command leader Admiral
Sam Paparo has warned that China's
military actions around Taiwan
are ""rehearsals for the forced
unification of Taiwan to the mainland.""
Paparo expressed concern about China's
increasing military capabilities
and its cooperation with Russia
and North Korea, which he called
a ""triangle of troublemakers.""
He also highlighted the need for the U.S.
to improve its readiness and streamline
its acquisition system to effectively
counter China's growing military power."
"United States
India and the US are negotiating a new
10-year defense framework (2025-2035)
to strengthen military cooperation
and streamline procurement processes.
The agreement includes plans for
reciprocal defense procurement,
enhanced technology sharing in
areas like space and maritime
security, and expanded defense sales.
The US will review policies on sharing
advanced military technology with India,
including fifth-generation fighter jets.
This builds on existing cooperation,
with India already using various US
military equipment, and falls under
the broader ""US-India COMPACT for
the 21st Century"" initiative."
"United States
US President Donald Trump has announced
that the US will sell F-35 fighter jets
to India, marking a significant military
cooperation between the two countries.
This move would make India
one of the few countries to
operate advanced stealth planes.
The sale is part of a broader
agreement to increase military sales
to India by billions of dollars."
Military Conflict
"Democratic Republic of Congo
M23 rebels and Rwandan troops captured
Bukavu, the capital of DR Congo's
South Kivu province, after seizing the
main airport with minimal resistance.
President Tshisekedi accused Rwanda
of ""expansionist ambitions""
in the mineral-rich region.
The African Union called for a ceasefire,
but tensions remain high between DR
Congo and Rwanda, with both nations
recalling ambassadors and DR Congo
closing its airspace to Rwandan aircraft.
The capture gives M23 control of
the strategic Lake Kivu area."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
The M23 rebels, supported by Rwanda,
are advancing toward Bukavu, the
second-largest city in the eastern
Democratic Republic of Congo.
They have captured the Kavumu Airport
near Bukavu, causing Congolese military
forces to retreat from certain areas.
This movement follows their recent
capture of Goma, eastern Congo's
largest city, in late January 2025."
"Iraq
Turkish forces neutralized (killed,
captured, or forced to surrender) seven
PKK members in two separate operations:
three in northern Iraq's Haftanin and
Operation Claw-Lock regions and four
in Syria's Operation Peace Spring zone.
Additionally, Turkish forces discovered
and disabled a PKK weapons cache hidden
in a cave in the Claw-Lock region."
"Lebanon
According to Lebanese media, Israeli
airstrikes have been reported
near the towns of Yohmor and
Deir Siryan in southern Lebanon.
There is currently no response from
the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)."
"Philippines
An armed encounter occurred between
the 79th Infantry Battalion and three
New People's Army (NPA) rebels in Cadiz
City, Negros Occidental, on February 13.
During the four-minute clash,
an alleged NPA finance officer
was injured, as evidenced by
blood stains found at the scene.
The military recovered documents
revealing planned extortion
activities during elections, and
pursuit operations are ongoing."
"Philippines
Two ranking members of the New People's
Army (NPA) were killed in an encounter
with government forces in Agusan
del Sur province on February 12.
The slain rebels were identified as
Larry Garcia (alias Joven) and his vice
commanding officer (alias Gaga or Garing).
The Philippine Army recovered various
items from the clash site, including
explosives and subversive documents."
"Somalia
Somali government forces, backed by
international allies, have conducted a
military operation in the Lower Shabelle
region, targeting Al-Shabab checkpoints.
The operation, led by the 175th
Battalion and the 146th Battalion,
successfully dismantled the
checkpoints and freed civilians and
vehicles held by the militant group."
"Syria
Turkish artillery fire in Al-Zaydiyah
village, Al-Hasakah, resulted in
one woman's death and two injuries.
The injured were
transported to a hospital."
"Syria
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
and Turkish-backed National Army
factions have experienced a significant
increase in military activity.
The SDF has launched attacks
on several fronts, resulting in
19 injuries and two fatalities.
Turkish fighter jets have also
conducted airstrikes on SDF
positions, injuring SDF fighters."
"Syria
The Turkish military conducted
new airstrikes targeting Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) positions
near Al-Sheyoukh village in the
Kobane region of Aleppo's countryside.
The strikes occurred close
to the Qarrah Qarquzaq bridge
frontline, but no casualties
were reported from the incident."
"Taiwan
Between Thursday and Friday, Taiwan's
Ministry of National Defense (MND)
tracked five Chinese military aircraft
and six naval vessels around the country.
One of the fighter bombers crossed the
median line into Taiwan's southwestern
air defense zone, prompting a
response from Taiwan's military."
"Ukraine
Russian forces killed three civilians and
wounded eight more in the Donetsk region.
The fatalities occurred in
Kramatorsk, Shevchenko, and Pokrovsk."
"Ukraine
A Russian drone strike ignited a fire
in an outbuilding on the outskirts
of Sumy, injuring one person.
Emergency services are on-site
to assess the situation."
"Ukraine
A Russian drone allegedly struck
the protective containment shell
of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power
Plant in Ukraine, but radiation
levels remain normal and stable.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy claimed the strike damaged
the structure and started a fire,
while a senior Russian official denied
responsibility, suggesting Ukrainian
officials made the claim to thwart
peace talks between Russia and the US.
The International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) confirmed that an explosion had
occurred but did not attribute blame."
"Ukraine
An explosion of an unidentified object
occurred on Pohranychna Street in
Mykolaiv on Friday around 14:00, killing
two people and injuring eight others
near a public dining establishment.
The incident prompted immediate
response from emergency services, law
enforcement, and medical personnel."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,200 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Over 420 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
A 50-year-old woman was killed
in a Russian glide bomb attack
on the village of Preobrazhenka
in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Rescuers have recovered her body from
under the rubble of a destroyed house, and
ongoing rescue operations are in place.
At least six glide bombs were dropped on
the village, causing significant damage."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched attacks on
Bohodukhiv and Kupiansk in the Kharkiv
region, leaving four people injured.
The attacks caused significant
damage to buildings and vehicles,
and two men were hospitalized."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian
reconnaissance UAVs in the Kharkiv sector,
intercepting drones that attempted to
gather intel on Ukrainian positions.
Additionally, Ukrainian forces destroyed
one Russian tank, two artillery pieces,
and one EW system in the Pokrovsk sector."
"Ukraine
Ukraine's Defense Forces
shot down 73 Russian drones,
including Shahed attack UAVs.
Additionally, 58 Russian decoy
drones were lost from tracking
without causing any damage."
"Ukraine
A 47-year-old man's body has been
recovered from the rubble of a destroyed
house in Preobrazhenka village,
Zaporizhzhia region, bringing the
total number of casualties to two.
The village was attacked with at
least six glide bombs, with a woman's
body previously found under the
debris of a residential building."
Terrorism
"Gaza Strip
Three hostages from Kibbutz Nir
Oz, abducted by Hamas on October 7,
2023, are set for release tomorrow.
Sagui Dekel-Chen, Sasha
Trufanov, and Yair Horn will be
reunited with their families."
"Gaza Strip
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad plans to
release one male hostage this Saturday.
However, Israeli officials have
requested that media outlets
withhold the hostage's name until
the families have been notified."
"Iraq
A mass grave containing approximately
25 civilians has been found in
Saqlawa, near Fallujah, Iraq.
Preliminary investigations indicate
signs of torture and execution on
the bodies, suggesting involvement
of Saddam Hussein's regime.
The identities of the victims remain
unknown, although there is a possibility
that the remains of a prominent Iraqi
cleric's family are among those buried."
"Israel
The Israel Police apprehended an
individual at the entrance to Tamra
in northern Israel after noticing
a suspicious object on his person.
The suspect, who was accompanied by
others, refused to identify himself
and did not cooperate with the police.
A large number of security forces
were dispatched to the scene,
and the circumstances of the
incident are under investigation."
"Mali
Four police officers were wounded
when suspected Al-Qaeda-affiliated
militants attacked a Malian minister's
convoy near Niena in southern Mali.
The attack, reportedly carried out
by the Katiba Macina group, involved
a rocket attack and gunfire exchange
targeting Higher Education Minister
Bourema Kansaye's delegation.
While the convoy reached its destination,
this incident highlights Mali's ongoing
security crisis, which continues despite
the junta's claims of improved security."
"Mexico
A major Sinaloa cartel leader, Humberto
Rivera (known by aliases ""El Chato,""
""El Don,"" and ""El Viejón""),
was arrested in Juarez, Mexico.
Authorities apprehended the
51-year-old on February 13th in
the San Lorenzo neighborhood.
Rivera, who was an FBI priority target
and former right-hand man to deceased
cartel leader Gabino Salas Valenciano,
was found carrying false identification
and cocaine at the time of his arrest."
"Myanmar
The Karen Border Guard Force (BGF), a
Myanmar junta-aligned group, conducted
raids on suspected online scam
operations in Shwe Kokko, Karen State.
The raids, which began early Friday
morning, resulted in the detention of
approximately 2,000 workers allegedly
involved in fraudulent activities.
This action follows the BGF's recent
formation of a special task force to
address online financial fraud and human
trafficking, prompted by increasing
pressure from China and Thailand to
curb illegal activities in the region."
"Pakistan
At least 11 coal mine workers were killed
and six injured in a roadside bomb attack
in Pakistan's Balochistan province.
The incident occurred in the Harnai
district, which has been hit by
insurgent attacks in the past.
The attack is believed to be
linked to the Baloch Liberation
Army (BLA), a militant group that
has been responsible for several
high-casualty attacks in Balochistan."
"Syria
Armed attackers targeted security posts
in the Al-Qabu area and Fahel village in
western Homs, with no reported casualties.
In response, the Military Operations
Administration conducted house searches
in Al-Qabu's eastern neighborhood,
creating tension in the area."
"Syria
A military post of the Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) in Al-Baghouz
came under attack by an ISIS cell.
Clashes occurred, resulting
in one injured attacker.
This incident coincides with a surge
in ISIS attacks in SDF-controlled areas
despite joint security operations by the
SDF and International Coalition Forces."
Civil Unrest
"Iran
Iranian authorities have detained two
unidentified British citizens (one
male, one female) on security-related
charges in Kerman, Iran.
While state media showed images of the
detainees meeting with British Ambassador
Hugo Shorter, specific details about
their arrest date and charges remain
undisclosed, with Kerman's judiciary
promising more information later."
"Lebanon
Hezbollah supporters blocked the
Beirut airport road and burned tires
in protest of a decision to bar two
Iranian planes from landing in Lebanon.
The ban was reportedly due to
concerns about smuggling funds to arm
Hezbollah through civilian flights.
The Lebanese army deployed to
the area, and scuffles broke out
between protesters and soldiers."
"Russia
Russian customs officials detained
a 28-year-old American citizen
at Moscow's Vnukovo airport after
they discovered cannabis-infused
marmalade in their luggage.
Russian authorities have initiated
criminal proceedings for drug
smuggling, and according to reports
from Mash (a Telegram channel), the
individual, identified only as K.
Byers, could face up to seven
years in prison if convicted."
Cyber
"United States
The Virginia Attorney General's Office
suffered a cyberattack that forced most
computer systems offline, including
email, file sharing, and internet access.
The incident, affecting the state's
top prosecutorial agency led by
Jason Miyares, is under investigation
by Virginia State Police."
Weapons
"Ukraine
The Organization for the Prohibition
of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has found
CS gas, a banned riot control agent, in
nine samples from Ukraine's front line,
including grenades, soil, and vegetation.
While not lethal, CS gas
irritates lungs, skin, and eyes
and is prohibited in warfare.
This is the second confirmed case
of riot control agents in the
Dnipropetrovsk region's conflict zones.
Both Russia and Ukraine accuse each
other of using chemical weapons,
with Western allies claiming
Moscow has used banned substances.
The OPCW did not attribute
responsibility to either side."
Active Shooting
"United States
A shooting occurred at a Walmart
Supercenter in Sumter on Friday
afternoon following an altercation
between two individuals.
One person was injured and is
receiving medical treatment.
Police have released a photo of a
suspected individual involved in the
incident and are offering up to $5,000
for information leading to an arrest.
The store was evacuated
following the incident."
Accidents
"Myanmar
A tragic accident occurred in
Myanmar's Pauktaw Township when a
group of young people discovered and
tampered with an unexploded bomb.
Two individuals (aged 20 and 18)
were killed instantly, and four
others were injured, including three
teenagers and a woman in her twenties."
"Nicaragua
A boat carrying 17 migrants,
including Vietnamese nationals, sank
in Nicaraguan waters on February 5.
Three Vietnamese survivors,
including two with Hungarian
residence permits, were rescued.
The incident highlights the
increasing number of Vietnamese
migrants attempting to reach the U.S.
by sea, with many paying smugglers
up to $70,000 for the journey."
"Peru
A bridge collapse in northern Peru
led to a double-decker bus and a car
plunging into a river, resulting in
at least two deaths and 41 injuries.
The accident occurred when the
60-meter bridge's central pillar,
built in the 1960s on the Panamerican
Highway, failed structurally.
The bus was carrying over 50
passengers from Chimbote to Lima
when the incident happened."
"South Korea
A fire broke out at a resort construction
site in Busan, South Korea, on Friday,
resulting in the deaths of at least
six people and injuring 25 others.
Approximately 100 workers were evacuated,
and 14 were rescued by helicopter.
Firefighters deployed to the site
were able to largely extinguish
the blaze by Friday afternoon.
The cause of the fire
is currently unknown."
"Syria
Two separate incidents involving
unexploded war remnants occurred in Syria.
Two civilians were killed when a war
remnant detonated in Qawas village in
southern Manbij (an area under National
Army control), while another civilian was
injured by cluster bomb shrapnel in Jrouh
village in eastern Hama countryside."
"United States
A small single-engine plane crashed
off the end of the runway at
the Buckeye Airport on Thursday.
Fortunately, the incident did not
result in any major consequences, as the
three people on board were able to walk
away from the crash and were evaluated
by medical personnel on the scene.
Additionally, no fuel leak was reported."
Other Events
"Greece
NATO's Steadfast Dart 25 exercise, its
largest for 2025, is taking place in
Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania (Feb 10-21).
A key segment featured Greek and
Spanish special forces conducting an
amphibious landing in Volos, Greece.
The exercise involves 10,000+ troops
from nine countries, with 1,500 vehicles,
20 fighter jets, and 17 naval units.
Part of NATO's Allied Reaction Force
(established after Russia's Ukraine
invasion), the operation highlights
Greece's dual role as both a host
nation and strategic transit hub
for NATO forces through its ports."
"Poland
Two Russian men were sentenced to five
and a half years in prison in Poland
for placing Wagner Group recruitment
posters and anti-EU materials across
Polish cities, Berlin, and Paris.
The Kraków court convicted them of
working for Russian intelligence and
recruiting for a terrorist organization.
While they claimed ignorance and said they
were trying to earn money, prosecutors
proved they were trained operatives."
"Sweden
A 22-year-old man in Sweden has been
convicted of participating in a terrorist
organization, financing terrorism, and
traveling abroad for terrorism purposes.
The case is the first conviction
under a new law adopted in 2023,
which was amended to align with
Sweden's freedom of association laws.
The conviction comes after Sweden
strengthened its anti-terror laws
in 2017 following a deadly truck
attack in Stockholm and after the
country joined NATO in March 2024."
"Taiwan
Former Mainland Affairs Council
Deputy Minister Chang Hsien-yao
was indicted for allegedly working
with Chinese officials to influence
Taiwan's 2023 presidential election.
Prosecutors say he was directed to
promote Terry Gou's candidacy after
the KMT had already selected Hou Yu-ih.
Chang reportedly met with Communist
Party leaders in Beijing and
organized events supporting Gou.
He faces charges under the
Anti-Infiltration Act and
Presidential Election Act.
This case is connected to a larger
crackdown that resulted in over
200 arrests for Chinese election
interference in January 2024."
"Taiwan
The Supreme Court of Taiwan has
upheld the sentences of eight military
officers involved in a spy ring case.
The group planned to pass information
about Taiwan's Han Kuang military
exercises to China and had a plan
to commandeer a Chinook helicopter
to land on a Chinese Navy ship.
Key individuals involved, including
the alleged mastermind Hsiao
Hsiang-yun, received prison terms
ranging from 18 months to 13 years."
"Thanks for joining us for the February
15, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
As a reminder, complete reports with
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