More Chinese threats around Taiwan
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 27, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
On Wednesday, we collected and
mapped 55 events, including more
aggressive Chinese actions around
Taiwan, so let's get started.
Political Conflict
"Taiwan
Taiwan's Ministry of National
Defense condemned China for suddenly
declaring live-fire exercises 74
km off Taiwan's southern coast.
Officials detected 32 Chinese military
aircraft (22 crossing the median
line) and naval vessels in the area.
Taiwan deployed forces to monitor
these activities and criticized
China for threatening international
navigation without warning."
"China
Last week and into the weekend,
China conducted military exercises
between New Zealand and Australia
with minimal advance notice,
forcing passenger flights to divert.
New Zealand's Foreign Minister
Winston Peters raised concerns
during meetings in Beijing, calling
it a ""failure"" in their bilateral
relationship that needs correction.
Australia has complained more strongly
about the lack of proper notification,
which was only ""a couple of hours""
instead of the expected 12-24
hours needed for flight planning.
China maintains the drills
comply with international law."
"China
A senior Chinese official
reaffirmed commitment to
""reunification"" with Taiwan.
Tensions increased after Taiwan detained
a Chinese-linked ship suspected of
damaging an undersea communications
cableâthe fifth such incident this year.
China denies involvement, while
Taiwan maintains that only its
people can decide on their future.
China has never ruled out using
force to take control of the island."
"China
Chinese state media urged the Philippines
to remove the US Typhon intermediate-range
missile system from the South China Sea.
The People's Daily, a Communist Party
newspaper, accused the Philippines
of breaking promises by claiming
the deployment would be temporary.
The commentary emphasized that
the region needs ""peace and
prosperity, not intermediate-range
missiles and confrontation."""
"China
The US has sanctioned six Hong
Kong and China-based entities for
allegedly procuring drone components
for Iranian firms that supply
Iran's UAV and missile programs.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated
that Iran continues using front companies
and third-country suppliers to obtain
components for its drone program."
"Cook Islands
Cook Islands PM Mark Brown survived a
no-confidence vote (13-9) sparked by
his recent partnership deal with China.
Brown accused New Zealand media
of spreading misinformation
about the agreement and his
abandoned ""symbolic passport""
plan, destabilizing his country.
He claimed his government had consulted
with New Zealand for months but was being
""spoken to, rather than spoken with.""
The situation has strained the
""free association"" relationship
between the Cook Islands and New
Zealand, which provides budgetary
support and defense assistance."
"Gaza Strip
Israel has confirmed reaching
an agreement with Hamas for the
return of four deceased hostages.
The bodies will be transferred tonight,
and Hamas has agreed not to conduct any
ceremony before the handover takes place."
"Iran
Iran condemned new US sanctions that
targeted over 30 people and vessels
connected to Iran's oil trade, including
the head of the national oil company.
These sanctions, announced Monday,
represent the second wave in less than
a month since President Trump reinstated
his ""maximum pressure"" policy.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil
Baqaei characterized the sanctions as a
""clear sign of hostility"" toward the
Iranian people and called them ""wrongful,
unjustified, illegitimate"" and a
violation of Iranians' human rights."
"Turkey
Russian and US diplomats are meeting
in Istanbul to address diplomatic
disputes following recent talks
between Presidents Putin and Trump.
The meeting will focus on improving
conditions for diplomats in each
country before tackling larger issues.
While Trump seeks a quick Ukraine
ceasefire, Putin emphasizes
rebuilding trust first.
Both nations have expressed
interest in joint business ventures,
including rare earth mining projects.
Trump's efforts to repair relations
with Russia have worried Ukraine
and European allies about being
excluded from potential agreements.
The Kremlin indicates Putin
and Trump should meet in person
after thorough preparation."
Military Conflict
"Democratic Republic of Congo
Rwanda-backed M23 rebels are
advancing toward Uvira, near
Burundi's economic capital.
Burundian troops, allies of the
DRC government, are deploying
to counter this threat.
The M23 rebels have recently captured
two major cities in eastern DRC - Bukavu
(South Kivu's capital) and Goma (North
Kivu's capital) - giving them significant
control in the mineral-rich region."
"Iran
Iranian security forces conducted
a joint operation in Sistan and
Baluchestan Province, resulting in
the killing of two foreign terrorists
and the arrest of six others.
The operation was carried out by the
Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC)
Ground Forces' Quds Headquarters and
Iran's Ministry of Intelligence as part
of the ""Martyrs of Security"" exercise.
The individuals were reportedly
members of the terrorist group Jaish
al-Adl, and the operation is ongoing to
""cleanse the region of terrorists."""
"Lebanon
The IDF reports that the Israeli Air
Force recently struck a key Hezbollah
operative from Unit 4400, which handles
Iranian weapons smuggling into Lebanon.
The strike occurred in southern
Lebanon's al-Qusayr area after
the target allegedly violated the
current ceasefire multiple times
through weapons smuggling activities.
According to the IDF, the operative
was targeted while planning additional
smuggling operations, and they claim
Unit 4400 continues to transport
weapons to Hezbollah in ways
that threaten Israel's security."
"Myanmar
Myanmar's military bombed Arakan Army
(AA) insurgents in Kyaukpyu, killing
civilians and forcing over 1,000 to flee.
The AA, which has captured 14 of Rakhine
state's 17 townships since 2023, is now
targeting Kyaukpyuâa strategic location
for Chinese investments, including
a planned deep-sea port and existing
oil/gas pipelines to Yunnan province.
The military has responded with
air and naval strikes since the
AA's February 20 offensive began."
"Nigeria
Villagers from Tafoki in Katsina State
killed three injured bandits following
a failed attack on their community.
On Tuesday, approximately 100 armed
bandits on motorcycles attempted to
raid the village but were repelled
by Nigerian security forces.
During the confrontation, several bandits
were wounded and fled into the forest.
The following morning (February 26),
villagers captured three of these
injured attackers and killed them.
Security forces have been
notified of the situation and are
continuing efforts to track down
the remaining bandits who escaped."
"Russia
On February 25-26, drones
attacked a seaport in Tuapse,
Russia's Krasnodar region.
According to local governor Veniamin
Kondratiev, private homes in the Tuapse
and Temryuk districts were damaged,
but no casualties were reported.
Local residents shared videos of
explosions at the Tuapse seaport
on social media, while Russian
Telegram channels reported air
defense activations over Anapa.
The attack led to the suspension
of operations at Sochi airport, and
Russian authorities claimed to have
destroyed 128 drones, with 83 reportedly
shot down over the Krasnodar region."
"Somalia
US AFRICOM conducted airstrikes
against Al-Shabab militants in
Somalia's Middle Shabelle region on
Tuesday after they retreated from
a failed attack on Alkowsar town.
The ""precision strike,"" coordinated with
Somali National Army forces, inflicted
significant casualties on the militants."
"Syria
Israeli airstrikes hit multiple military
targets in Syria, killing two people.
The attacks targeted the First
Division headquarters with tanks in Rif
Dimashq, the 112th Brigade near Ezrae'
in Daraa countryside, and positions
along the Syria-Lebanon border in
Juroud Al-Naby opposite Sarghaya Town.
The two fatalities occurred during
a drone strike on a border position
near Sarghaya Town in Rif Dimashq.
The operations included both
fighter jet attacks and at
least one drone strike on Syrian
territory near the Lebanese border."
"Syria
The excerpt reports an exchange of heavy
weapons fire between Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF) and Turkish forces early
Wednesday morning in several villages in
the Manbij countryside of eastern Aleppo.
Turkish fighter jets also
conducted two airstrikes on
SDF positions in the same area.
No casualties were reported from
these military engagements."
"Syria
A commander of Huras Al-Dein Faction
known as Abo Ahmed Al-Shamy (who
had an ID under the name Fady Ahmed
Farouh) was killed in a drone strike.
The attack was carried out by the
international coalition and targeted his
motorbike near Al-Nasr Al-Khairiya in
the Jarablus countryside east of Aleppo."
"Syria
Turkish forces and their proxy factions
exchanged attacks with Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF) across multiple frontlines
in eastern Aleppo and northeastern Syria.
Turkish artillery, drone strikes,
and ground assaults targeted SDF
positions near Teshreen Dam, Deir
Hafer, and Qarrah Quzaq Bridge,
resulting in clashes and casualties.
Turkish forces also bombarded
Abu Rasin town and villages in
Al-Hasakah countryside, damaging
civilian infrastructure, including
a bread bakery and security
headquarters, and destroying homes
in Al-Rubay'at and Al-Bobi villages."
"Syria
Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz,
confirmed Israeli airstrikes in southern
Syria following blasts near Damascus.
Katz warned that Israel ""will
not allow southern Syria to
become southern Lebanon.""
These strikes follow recent demands
by Israeli officials, including
Prime Minister Netanyahu, for the
demilitarization of southern Syria
and warnings against the Syrian
army movement south of Damascus."
"Syria
The Turkish National Defense Ministry
reported that six PKK/YPG terrorists
were neutralized in northern Syria and
the Peace Spring region on Wednesday.
The term ""neutralized"" is
used by Turkish authorities to
indicate individuals who were
killed, captured, or surrendered."
"Taiwan
The excerpt reports that four
Chinese Coast Guard ships entered
Taiwan's territorial waters near
Kinmen on Tuesday afternoon.
Taiwan Coast Guard vessels
intercepted and monitored the
Chinese ships, which left Kinmen's
restricted waters after three hours.
According to the Taiwan Coast Guard
Administration, Chinese Coast Guard
vessels have entered Kinmen's waters
60 times since a February 14, 2024,
incident when a Chinese speedboat
capsized, resulting in two deaths."
"Taiwan
The Taiwanese Ministry of National
Defense reported monitoring significant
Chinese military activity around
Taiwan over a 24-hour period.
They tracked 14 Chinese naval
ships, 11 military aircraft, and two
official ships, with nine aircraft
crossing the Taiwan Strait median
line into various sections of Taiwan's
air defense identification zone.
In response, Taiwan deployed aircraft,
naval ships, and coastal missile
systems to monitor the activities
of the People's Liberation Army."
"Ukraine
The Russian army conducted two air strikes
on the village of Zolochiv in Ukraine's
Kharkiv region, injuring three people and
damaging approximately 30 private houses,
10 outbuildings, and a greenhouse."
"Ukraine
Two people were injured when a
multi-story residential building was
hit in the Kyivskyi district in Kharkiv.
According to Mayor Ihor Terekhov, a
total of four Shahed drones struck
the city - one hit a roadway in
the city center, another struck an
apartment on the second floor of a
building, and two targeted a café.
Explosions were reportedly heard in
Kharkiv during an air raid alert."
"Ukraine
Two people were killed and two others
injured in a Russian drone attack
on the Kyiv region on February 25.
Buildings were damaged and
destroyed in the attack."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian defense forces shot down
110 Russian Shahed-type attack drones
during a massive aerial assault that
began Tuesday evening (February 25).
An additional 66 decoy drones
disappeared from radar tracking
without causing damage.
The drones were launched from
multiple Russian regions,
including Orel, Bryansk, and Kursk.
Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile
troops, electronic warfare units,
and mobile fire groups participated
in defending against the attack."
"Ukraine
Russian forces used a drone to
attack and kill a 65-year-old man
in Lvove village, Kherson region.
According to Oleksandr Prokudin,
head of the Kherson Regional Military
Administration, the attack occurred
around 2 PM when explosives were
dropped from a UAV, resulting in
fatal injuries to the resident."
"Ukraine
Russian forces attacked a DTEK facility in
Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region, described
as part of ongoing ""energy terror.""
The DTEK Group announced
the attack via Telegram.
Power engineers are working to
restore operations at the damaged
facility as quickly as possible."
"Ukraine
Administrative buildings in Hlukhiv,
Sumy region, were damaged following
a Russian strike on February 26.
The head of the Hlukhiv community,
Nadiya Vailo, reported that the attack
likely involved a guided aerial bomb,
with explosions heard around 10:00."
"Ukraine
Ukrinform journalist Tetiana
Kulyk was killed in a Russian
drone attack in the Kyiv region.
Damage assessments were not
reported in the attack."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,170 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Around 385 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Russian forces struck Kostiantynivka
in Ukraine's Donetsk region with
at least six FAB-250 bombs, killing
five people and injuring 11.
The attack damaged 52 civilian
objects, including more than
20 residential buildings.
Rescue operations and documentation
of the aftermath continue, with
authorities still determining the
full extent of casualties and damage."
"Ukraine
The excerpt reports that Russian forces
attacked the town of Semenivka in
Ukraine's Chernihiv region with drones,
damaging an apartment building roof,
several private houses, and outbuildings.
No casualties were reported
from this specific attack."
"Ukraine
Russian attacks in the Kherson
region on February 25, 2025, resulted
in one death and eight injuries.
According to Oleksandr Prokudin,
head of the Kherson Regional State
Administration, Russian forces
targeted 36 towns and villages in
the region with fire and airstrikes.
The attacks damaged a high-rise
building, 12 private houses, a mobile
tower, a garage, and several cars.
Ukrainian air defense reportedly
destroyed one Russian Shahed
drone during the attacks."
"Ukraine
Russian forces attacked Ukraine's
Dnipropetrovsk region, striking the
Nikopol district approximately 15 times
with kamikaze drones and artillery.
The attacks damaged industrial
facilities, infrastructure, four
private homes, and three outbuildings
across multiple communities.
The Synelnykove district was also
hit with a guided aerial bomb.
Regional governor Serhiy Lysak reported
no injuries from these specific
attacks, though a separate incident
in Kramatorsk resulted in casualties."
"Ukraine
Russian forces killed two residents in
the Donetsk region (in Krasnotorka and
Yampil) and wounded 18 others, according
to Vadym Filashkin, head of the Donetsk
Regional Military Administration."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian paratroopers from the
25th Sicheslav airborne brigade have
successfully taken control of Kotlyne
village in the Pokrovsk sector.
This strategic location was significant
as Russian capture would have given
them access to the Pokrovsk-Dnipro road.
During the operation, Ukrainian forces
destroyed one APC and 12 vehicles
while reportedly killing 275 Russian
soldiers and neutralizing 203 more."
Weapons
"Somalia
Puntland forces discovered an ISIS
leadership bunker in Sheebaab,
Somalia, after seizing the town.
The underground hideout, camouflaged
with vegetation, was equipped with
electricity, bedding, and air ventilation.
It served as ISIS's largest
command center in Somalia, housing
leadership, a court, training
camps, and operational coordination.
Two mass graves and airstrike-resistant
caves were also discovered."
Terrorism
"India
An Indian Army vehicle from 9 JAK
Rifles was attacked by terrorists in
Rajouri's Sunderbani area on Wednesday.
The attack came from a hilltop near
Village Phall forest area around
1 pm, with no reported injuries.
Security forces launched
a search operation.
Separately, BSF troops neutralized
an intruder attempting to cross the
International Border in Pathankot Sector
after the individual ignored warnings.
The BSF plans to file a protest with
Pakistan Rangers regarding the incident.
The intruder's identity and
motives are under investigation."
"India
Arunjay Bora (aka Ujjal Asom), an
active ULFA-I member since 2018,
surrendered to Tinsukia police on
Sunday, marking a significant development
in Assam's insurgency situation.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Home Affairs
has issued a notice to ULFA and its
groups, requiring them to explain why
they shouldn't be declared unlawful
organizations for five years under UAPA."
"Nigeria
Nigeria Police arrested 20 suspects
in a raid on a Taraba State hideout,
recovering weapons, including
an AK-47 rifle and ammunition.
In a separate operation, three
kidnap victims were rescued in Oyo
State after being abducted from a
palace, with one suspect arrested."
"Philippines
University professor Israel Angas was
killed in an ambush in Cotabato City.
Two unidentified men on a motorcycle
shot Angas while he was driving
his SUV home around 6 p.m.
Tuesday.
The victim, an engineering professor
at Notre Dame University, was rushed to
the hospital but was pronounced dead.
Police recovered multiple .45-caliber
pistol shells at the scene and
are currently investigating
the motive behind the attack."
Cyber
"Philippines
The Philippine Army confirmed a
network breach but claimed no data
was stolen, describing it as ""illegal
access"" rather than hacking.
However, security organization
Deep Web Konek reported that
approximately 10,000 sensitive military
personnel records were compromised.
The attack was attributed to Philippine
Exodus Security, a group known for
targeting other government agencies.
The Army is implementing counter-measures
through its Cyber Security Enhancement
Program, while the Philippine Navy
has initiated an investigation
and emphasized the importance of
collective cybersecurity efforts."
Accidents
"Chile
Chile experienced its worst blackout
in 15 years on Tuesday, affecting
90% of its 20 million residents.
By Wednesday, authorities
restored power to 90% of homes.
President Boric declared a state
of emergency, implemented a
curfew and criticized private
grid companies for the failure.
The outage caused chaos in Santiago, with
metro evacuations, traffic gridlock, and
people trapped in elevators and rides.
Hospitals and prisons
used emergency generators.
Interior Minister Toha ruled
out sabotage, attributing the
failure to system operations."
"Russia
A Russian research vessel, ""Ashamba,""
sank at Novorossiysk port due to
heavy icing during a winter storm.
The crew couldn't prevent the vessel
from capsizing as it listed to port.
Pollution risk is limited due to small
diesel quantities onboard, and authorities
have launched investigations into
possible maritime regulation breaches."
"Sudan
A Sudanese military Antonov aircraft
crashed in Omdurman, killing at least
46 people and injuring 10 others.
The plane crashed during takeoff
from Wadi Sayidna Air Base, damaging
homes in the Karrari district."
"Syria
Two young brothers died, and another
was injured when a hand grenade they
were playing with exploded in Inkhil.
No other details were
reported in the incident."
"Syria
A member of the Turkish-backed National
Army was killed when a landmine exploded
while he was attempting to dismantle
it in Tel Refaat City, located in
the northern Aleppo countryside.
The landmine was described as a war
remnant, suggesting it was left over
from previous conflict in the area."
"Syria
Three children were killed by
an old landmine explosion in the
Al-Shoula desert, located in the
southern countryside of Deir Ezzor.
This area is under the control
of the Damascus government."
"Thailand
A chartered bus overturned in eastern
Thailand Wednesday morning, killing
18 and injuring 31 during an overnight
journey for a municipal study tour.
Officials promised to investigate
and increase safety inspections
of public transport vehicles."
"United States
A fisherman witnessed an ICON A5
single-engine amphibious aircraft
crash while attempting to land in the
water near Center Hill Lake in DeKalb
County on Tuesday around 3:53 p.m.
The pilot, James Luna of Auburntown,
escaped with minor injuries and was able
to board the fisherman's boat without
requiring medical transportation.
Multiple agencies responded to the
incident, including DeKalb County
Fire Department, Sheriff's Department,
and Emergency Medical Service.
No fire or spills were reported, and
the crash has been reported to the FAA."
"United States
A small Piper PA-28 plane crashed
into a mountain in Manchester, Vermont
early Wednesday around 3:50 a.m.
All three people on board survived and
were being evaluated and airlifted to
safety by approximately 11:40 a.m.,
according to the
Manchester Fire Department.
The Federal Aviation Administration
has located the plane and will
be investigating the incident."
Other Events
"Thailand
Cobra Gold 2025, the 44th iteration
of Asia's largest military exercise,
began on February 25 in Thailand, with
over 200 service members from seven
nations attending the opening ceremony.
More than 3,200 U.S.
personnel will participate alongside
international partners in joint
training, multinational engagements,
and humanitarian projects.
The exercise focuses on command
and control, humanitarian
assistance, and field training,
with approximately 30 nations
participating directly or as observers."
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27, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
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