Israel says they are ready for the second phase of the ceasefire, but Hamas won't disarm
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for March 5, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
On Tuesday, we collected and
mapped 53 events, including
Israel and Hamas statements on the
ceasefire, so let's get started.
"Gaza Strip
Hamas leader Sami Abu Zuhri has firmly
rejected any possibility of disarmament,
declaring it a ""red line"" for both
Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups
in ceasefire extension negotiations.
Abu Zuhri dismissed discussions about
removing weapons from what he termed
""resistance"" forces as ""nonsense.""
His statement came shortly after Israeli
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar had insisted
on the ""full demilitarization"" of
Gaza as a prerequisite for advancing to
the second phase of the truce agreement
that has been in effect since January."
"Israel
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon
Sa'ar stated Israel is prepared
to move to the second phase of a
ceasefire but with two key conditions:
the release of all hostages and
complete demilitarization of Gaza.
Sa'ar also justified Israel's decision
to restrict humanitarian aid to Gaza,
claiming that such aid has become
Hamas's primary funding source,
which the group allegedly uses to
finance terrorism, rebuild military
capabilities, and recruit new members."
"North Korea
Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean
leader Kim Jong Un, criticized the Trump
administration for ""provocations""
including the USS Carl Vinson's visit to
South Korea and B-1B bomber deployments.
She claimed these actions justify North
Korea strengthening its nuclear deterrent.
South Korea's defense ministry
dismissed her statements as a deception
to justify nuclear development,
stating that ""North Korea's nuclear
weapons are never acceptable."""
"Russia
Russia has agreed to assist President
Trump in negotiating with Iran on its
nuclear program, according to Bloomberg.
During a phone call with Russian
President Putin last month, Trump
reportedly expressed interest in
addressing both Iran's nuclear
matters and its support for anti-U.S.
proxies in the Middle East.
The White House has not
responded to this report."
"Ukraine
The Trump administration has suspended
all US military aid to Ukraine
following a tense White House meeting
where Trump told Zelenskyy to return
""when he is ready for peace.""
Officials describe it as a temporary
""pause"" affecting billions in
shipments of ammunition, vehicles, and
equipment, including items in transit.
Ukrainian officials warn this helps Putin
and pushes Ukraine toward capitulation.
The move comes after Trump criticized
Zelenskyy for saying the war
could be ""very, very far away."""
"Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
said on X that Ukraine is ready for
peace negotiations under US President
Trump's leadership, emphasizing that
Ukrainians want an end to the war.
They propose immediate steps:
prisoner exchanges and truces
for air and sea operations.
The statement acknowledges past
US support, including Trump's
provision of Javelins, while noting
the recent White House meeting.
He also expressed readiness to sign a
minerals and security agreement as a step
toward stronger security guarantees, and
hopes for constructive future cooperation
to quickly achieve a lasting peace."
"United States
The US imposed 25% tariffs on
Canadian and Mexican goods while
increasing Chinese tariffs to 20%, now
affecting electronics like laptops.
China retaliated with 10-15% tariffs on US
agriculture and new export restrictions.
Canada announced 25% counter-tariffs
on $107B of US goods, with
Mexico's response pending.
Markets tumbled as currencies weakened
and automaker shares fell sharply."
"Yemen
The US has formally redesignated
Yemen's Houthi movement as a ""foreign
terrorist organization,"" announced
by Secretary of State Marco Rubio
following President Trump's directive.
This imposes harsher economic penalties
than Biden's administration had applied."
"Belgium
European Commission President
von der Leyen proposed a ""Rearm
Europe"" plan to boost EU military
spending by up to â¬800 billion.
The five-part plan includes a â¬150
billion loan instrument for defense
capabilities, an ""escape clause""
exempting military spending from
EU debt limits, and repurposing
of unused COVID recovery funds.
This initiative responds to the U.S.
halting Ukraine aid and aims to increase
European security self-reliance.
While France, Italy, and Spain favor joint
EU debt for defense, Germany and Northern
European countries remain skeptical.
EU leaders will discuss the
proposal at an upcoming summit."
"Egypt
An Arab summit has endorsed an
Egyptian proposal for Gaza's
reconstruction in its draft communique.
The initial phase of this plan calls
for building 200,000 housing units
in Gaza over a two-year period at an
estimated cost of $20 billion and seeks
immediate support from the international
community and financial institutions.
The plan also advocates for Palestinian
elections across all territories
within a year, provided conditions are
suitableânoting that Palestinians haven't
held elections in nearly two decades."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
M23 rebels abducted at least 130 sick
and wounded men from two Goma hospitals
on February 28, targeting those
suspected of being Congolese soldiers
or pro-government militia members.
The Tutsi-led rebels have made
unprecedented advances in eastern
Congo since December, capturing major
cities, including Goma and Bukavu."
"India
A 65-year-old man named Kalmu
Hidma was killed by Naxalites in
Pentapad village, Sukma district,
Chhattisgarh, on Monday evening.
The victim was a relative
of former MLA Manish Kunjam.
Police have not specified
the motive behind the killing
and are still investigating."
"India
Two Maoist members of the banned People's
Liberation Front of India (PLFI) were
killed in a gun battle between rival
factions near the Phuljhari River
on the Jharkhand district border.
The incident occurred on March 2, with
police recovering the bodies of Parvel
Sandi Purti and Aashiq Tanti, both
of whom had criminal histories with
multiple cases registered against them.
Following the clash, police recovered
weapons, ammunition, mobile phones,
PLFI levy receipts, and other items
during their search operation."
"India
Two active members of the banned People's
Liberation Army (PLA) were arrested in
Manipur's Imphal West district on Monday.
The suspects, identified as Kharaijam
Ronald Singh (37) and Takhellambam Surjit
Sharma (39), were apprehended during a
police operation at Pheiding Crossing.
Police seized mobile phones, cash,
and a vehicle during the arrest."
"India
Gujarat ATS and central agencies
arrested 19-year-old Abdul Rahman
for allegedly plotting a terror
attack on Ayodhya's Ram Temple.
Sources claim he was working with
Pakistan's ISI, had conducted
multiple reconnaissance missions,
and planned to use hand grenades.
Two grenades were recovered
during his arrest in Faridabad.
Rahman reportedly traveled from Faizabad
to Faridabad to collect the explosives
before planning to return to Ayodhya.
He has been taken to Gujarat for
questioning, with multiple agencies
involved in the investigation."
"Nigeria
Suspected Boko Haram terrorists have
abducted a professor from the Nigerian
Army University and other passengers
on the Damaturu-Biu Road in Yobe State.
The professor was returning from
visiting family in Maiduguri."
"Pakistan
Two suicide bombers attacked a military
facility in Bannu, Pakistan, on Tuesday
by detonating explosives to breach a wall.
Five to six additional attackers
attempted to enter the compound
but were killed by security forces.
The attack was claimed by Jaish
Al-Fursan, a group affiliated
with the Pakistani Taliban."
"Philippines
A grenade explosion injured three
people in Barangay San Jose, Kalawit,
Zamboanga del Norte, on Monday, March 3.
The victims were Arnold Yu Lubaton (69)
and his guests Renel Elmenzo Labina
(38) and Honeylette Pagador Labina (33).
According to police reports, someone
threw a grenade at Lubaton's house and
fled as it exploded at the front door.
All three victims sustained shrapnel
wounds and were hospitalized.
Authorities are investigating whether
the attack was related to Lubaton's
political support for Mayor Antojado,
who is seeking his third and final term
in the upcoming May 2025 elections."
"Philippines
A former NPA member (alias Dok)
surrendered a defused IED and
detonating cord to the Army's Community
Support Program Team in Barotac
Viejo, Iloilo, on February 28, 2025.
Brigadier General Micheal Samson
praised this as a success of their peace
initiatives and urged other Communist
Terrorist Group members to follow suit."
"South Sudan
South Sudanese security forces have
detained General Gabriel Duop Lam,
deputy chief of defense forces and
SPLA-IO chief of staff, along with
two other senior officers - General
Yiey Daak and General Koang Gatkuoth.
They were arrested in Juba on Tuesday
and taken to an undisclosed location.
The arrests came shortly after armed
youth known as the White Army captured
an SSPDF base in Nasir County amid
tensions over a disarmament plan.
While the SSPDF blames SPLA-IO for
the resistance, First Vice President
Riek Machar had already authorized
SSPDF deployment in the area."
"Ukraine
The Security Service of Ukraine
(SSU) has detained two individuals
who were helping direct Russian
strikes on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
The first suspect, a 47-year-old man
from Sloviansk, was recruited by Russian
intelligence after posting pro-Kremlin
comments online and subsequently
monitored Ukrainian troop movements.
The second suspect, a 37-year-old
factory worker from Kramatorsk, worked
for the Russian FSB and marked Ukrainian
military positions on Google Maps.
Both have been charged with high
treason committed under martial law
and face potential life imprisonment
with property confiscation."
"West Bank
Israeli troops shot a Palestinian
gunman who had opened fire on them near
the West Bank settlement outpost of
Homesh, according to a military source.
No Israeli soldiers were injured
during the exchange of fire."
"France
A Russian Su-35 fighter jet performed
dangerous maneuvers against a French
Reaper drone over the Mediterranean on
March 2, making three approaches that
nearly caused the drone to lose control.
French Defense Minister Lecornu
condemned the action as ""intentional,
unprofessional, and aggressive."""
"Gaza Strip
IDF troops shot at an individual
in southern Gaza who was allegedly
approaching Israeli forces and deemed an
""imminent threat,"" with the military
confirming they hit the target."
"Lebanon
An alleged Israeli drone strike
was reported in Rechknanay,
located in Lebanon's Tyre District.
While the IDF has not officially commented
on the incident, Hezbollah-affiliated
Lebanese news outlet al-Manar reported
that one person was killed in the attack.
According to Hebrew-language journalist
Doron Kadosh, an unnamed Israeli official
claimed the strike eliminated ""a
central figure"" in Hezbollah's elite
Radwan force, though this information
has not been independently confirmed."
"Myanmar
The junta conducted airstrikes on 10
villages in Myaing and Pauk townships
of Magway Region, killing at least
11 civilians and injuring others.
According to local residents, five jet
fighters targeted villages in eastern
Myaing Township without provocation, as
there was no active fighting in the area.
Resistance forces have partially
controlled Myaing since September.
In Pauk Township, at least six people
were killed and six injured despite
no recent fighting since January 23."
"Myanmar
The AA reports continued
major clashes near Sittwe and
the port town of Kyaukphyu.
Fighting around Sittwe has persisted
since February 7, with current battles
focused on War Bo village (less than
six miles north of the capital).
The AA is targeting multiple
military positions, including a
naval base near Shwe Min Gan port
and several northern villages.
According to AA spokesperson Khaing
Thukha, Myanmar's military is
mounting strong resistance using
ground, naval, and air forces."
"Myanmar
On March 1, junta aircraft bombed the
villages of Methana and Hteekyawkhee
in Hpa-An Township at around 6:00 am,
despite no ongoing fighting in the area.
Four bombs were dropped, destroying a
house in Hteekyawkhee and a religious
building at a monastery near Methana.
According to the KNU Thaton
District secretary, the attacks were
unprovoked and used 120 mm mortar
bombs and handmade plastic grenades.
The airstrikes have caused
residents to evacuate and students
to avoid school out of fear."
"Philippines
A Philippine Air Force FA-50 fighter
jet with two pilots went missing early
Tuesday during a night operation,
coinciding with military air strikes
supporting troops fighting NPA rebels
near the Bukidnon-Agusan del Sur boundary.
The jet lost communication minutes
before reaching the target area,
and search operations are underway.
Military officials have given conflicting
information about the exact location
of the rebel encounter and whether
FA-50s were involved in the strikes."
"Russia
Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces
conducted several strikes on
Russian territory on March 4,
targeting energy infrastructure.
The attacks hit oil pumping facilities in
the Rostov region that supply the Russian
military, production facilities at the
Syzran oil refinery in Samara region,
the Sokhranovsky gas pipeline department
in Rostov, and an oil refinery in Ufa.
These strikes resulted in explosions
and fires despite Russian electronic
warfare and air defense countermeasures.
Ukrainian officials confirmed the
operations but are still verifying
the full extent of the damage."
"Syria
A large-scale security operation by
Internal Security Forces was reported in
the Al-Da'tour neighborhood of Latakia
city, a predominantly Alawite area.
The Ministry of Defence deployed military
vehicles, armed pickup trucks, and
personnel to the surrounding areas.
The operation targets several groups:
pro-government militias, drug dealers,
escaped prisoners, and gunmen who had
attacked security forces in the region.
The security campaign involved
road closures and heavy gunfire,
causing panic among local
residents, particularly students."
"Syria
Artillery fire was exchanged
between Syrian Democratic Forces
and Turkish forces at Sarin junction
and Qarrah Quzaq bridge frontlines.
Additionally, Turkish forces
shelled positions in Qararishk
village near Kobane, causing
civilians to flee to safer areas.
No casualties have been
reported from these incidents."
"Taiwan
The Taiwan Ministry of National Defense
reported detecting 19 Chinese military
aircraft, five naval vessels, and two
official ships around Taiwan during a
24-hour period ending Tuesday morning.
Eleven of the aircraft crossed
the Taiwan Strait median line
into Taiwan's southwestern air
defense identification zone.
Taiwan responded by deploying aircraft,
naval ships, and coastal missile
systems to monitor these activities."
"Ukraine
A 71-year-old woman was wounded
during morning shelling in
Antonivka, a suburb of Kherson,
and was subsequently hospitalized.
The attack occurred around 9:00 a.m.,
causing her to sustain
an explosive injury.
Additionally, two other civilians were
injured in separate drone attacks in
the Dniprovsky district of Kherson."
"Ukraine
Russian forces attacked multiple
settlements in Ukraine's Kherson
region, injuring five civilians.
The attacks included shelling and
airstrikes targeting 29 different
settlements, including Kherson city.
The bombardment damaged nine
private homes, a ""point of
invincibility"" center, a warehouse,
a garage, and private vehicles."
"Ukraine
A Russian drone struck a children's
hospital in Sumy on the night of March 4.
The impact occurred between the
fourth floor and the roof in the
staircase area, shattering windows
but not damaging doctors' offices.
No injuries were reported, as
only security guards were present
during the nighttime attack.
While the hospital remains operational,
water from firefighting efforts flooded
some medical examination rooms, including
those for ECG and ultrasound procedures."
"Ukraine
The Russian army conducted
multiple attacks on the
Dnipropetrovsk region in Ukraine.
The communities of Nikopol,
Marhanets, and Myrivsk were affected.
Officials reported no
casualties from these attacks."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,340 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Over 240 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
A Russian attack on March 3 damaged a
DTEK energy facility in the Odesa region.
By March 4, energy workers had restored
power to critical infrastructure
and reconnected electricity to
7,000 households, though emergency
outages continued in some areas.
The drone attack also damaged
residential buildings, caused multiple
fires, and injured four people."
"Ukraine
The Russian military attacked the border
village of Kozacha Lopan in Ukraine's
Kharkiv district with three air bombs.
The attack targeted residential
areas, wounding a 41-year-old man
who is receiving medical attention.
Three private homes and outbuildings
were destroyed, with at least 10
additional properties damaged."
"Ukraine
A Russian guided aerial bomb struck
a checkpoint in Beryslav district,
Kherson region on March 3, 2025,
killing Ukrainian police officer
Senior Sergeant Serhii Vakulin.
The 46-year-old officer had served in
law enforcement since 1998 and was on
duty with the Response Sector of the
Patrol Police when the attack occurred.
Vakulin, who was originally from
Russian-occupied Hornostaivka,
leaves behind a wife and young son."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian Defense Forces shot down
65 Russian drones during an attack
on March 3-4, while 32 additional
decoy drones were lost in tracking.
Russia launched 99 Shahed-type strike
drones from multiple locations,
including Oryol, Kursk, and Bryansk.
The Ukrainian response involved
aircraft, anti-aircraft missile
units, and electronic warfare teams.
Drone interceptions occurred across
nine Ukrainian regions, with damage
reported in Odesa, Sumy, and Donetsk."
"West Bank
Israeli authorities killed Issar
Saadi, described as Hamas's terror
network leader in Jenin, during an
expanded counterterrorism operation.
Border Police and IDF troops
attempted to arrest Saadi based
on Shin Bet intelligence, but an
exchange of fire resulted in his
death along with another gunman.
Three Palestinians were detained,
and weapons, including an assault
rifle and handgun, were recovered.
A third gunman was killed in
a separate firefight nearby.
The operation marks the first use of
heavier ""Eitan"" armored personnel
carriers in Jenin as Israeli
forces expanded their activities
to additional neighborhoods."
"Kenya
At least four people were shot
during protests at Kenya's Kakuma
refugee camp, where thousands
demonstrated against food rationing.
The World Food Programme (WFP) has
reduced rations to 45% of the minimum
food basket due to funding constraints.
A South Sudanese refugee highlighted the
inadequacy of monthly food allocations,
while the WFP announced office closures in
South Africa due to US foreign aid cuts.
Kenya is transitioning from donor-reliant
refugee camps to integrated settlements."
"Serbia
Serbian opposition lawmakers threw
smoke grenades and tear gas in
parliament during protests against
the government, with one legislator
suffering a stroke in the chaos.
This disruption is part of four-month-long
student-led demonstrations that have
expanded to include teachers and
farmers, becoming the biggest threat
to President Vucic's decade-long rule.
Protesters demand action against
corruption and government incompetence,
with many honoring 15 people
killed in a railway station roof
collapse that sparked the movement."
"United Kingdom
Thousands of farmers protested in
London against Labour's inheritance
tax changes, which would impose a 20%
tax on farms worth over £1 million,
ending the previous 100% exemption.
NFU president Tom Bradshaw declared
farmers ""will not go away.""
Conservative politicians,
including Kemi Badenoch and Nigel
Farage, supported the protest.
The government insists most farms
won't be affected, claiming only 27%
of estates exceed the threshold."
"Afghanistan
A 63-year-old man named Qurban Gildi was
killed by an unexploded hand grenade in
northern Afghanistan's Jawzjan province.
According to police spokesman Qari
Abdul Sattar Halimi, the incident
occurred while Gildi was working on
his agricultural land in the Hindu Kush
village of the Mardian district when he
accidentally hit the unexploded ordnance
left over from previous conflicts."
"Nigeria
A bus caught fire on the Abeokuta-Sagamu
Expressway Tuesday afternoon, killing
16 passengers and injuring three others.
The FRSC reported that the bus,
carrying 21 people, erupted in flames
near Buhari Estate around 1:00 PM.
The victims were burned beyond
recognition, with the injured taken
to the Federal Medical Centre.
Officials believe a gas cylinder in
the vehicle caused the explosion."
"Nigeria
A tanker explosion near Gabster Mega
Petrol Station in Ibadan's Orita
Challenge area early Tuesday morning
killed two people, believed to be
the tanker driver and his assistant.
The victims were trapped in the
blast and burned beyond recognition."
"Syria
An ammunition vehicle exploded near a
fuel station in Al-Sukkariya Square,
Al-Bokamal, on the Syria-Iraq border.
The explosion caused a fuel tank
to detonate as well, resulting
in three civilian deaths and an
unspecified number of injuries."
"Syria
In the Al-Qonaitara countryside,
a landmine explosion killed one
child and severely injured another.
In southern Idlib countryside, a young
man was injured when a grenade exploded
in an abandoned house in Kafr Nubl City.
In Daraa City, a child was injured
while playing with a Dushka bullet that
exploded in the Al-Manshiya neighborhood."
"Syria
Six people were killed in an explosion
in the Al-Alyaniya area of Palmyra
City in eastern Homs countryside.
The victims included five members of
the Internal Security Administration
and one member of the Syrian Free Army.
The explosion occurred in their
vehicle, which was carrying
landmines that had been dismantled."
"Myanmar
Myanmar's military junta arrested
Major General Myint Kyaw Tun and
three other officers after China
linked them to online scam operations.
The arrests occurred on February 21
during a military ceremony attended
by junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.
The officers are under investigation
in Naypyidaw, with Brigadier General
Aye Min Oo replacing Myint Kyaw Tun.
Sources suggest more senior
officers may be implicated."
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5, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
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