January 25, 2025 27:07 E35

Israel not withdrawing from Lebanon, and Hamas violates ceasefire agreement

Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for January 25, 2025.

Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and

our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.

We mapped 63 events on Friday,
including some interesting

developments that include Israel.

Terrorism

"Gaza Strip

The Israeli hostages scheduled for
release by Hamas on Saturday are female

IDF soldiers Karina Ariev, Daniella
Gilboa, Naama Levy, and Liri Albag.

The release order is based on categories,
starting with female civilians,

followed by female soldiers, elderly
hostages, and seriously ill hostages.

Israel expected the release of
hostage Arbel Yehud, who the

Palestinian Islamic Jihad group holds.

Israel is considering various
options to respond to the Hamas

violation, including changing the
list of prisoners to be released."

"Iraq

On Friday, PKK fighters attacked an
Iraqi border guard checkpoint in the

Batifa district of Zakho Independent
Administration, resulting in the deaths of

two guards and the wounding of another."

"Italy

On Wednesday morning, police arrested
a Moroccan citizen in Naples on

suspicion of planning an attack on
the Jewish community in the city.

The investigation revealed the
individual was affiliated with ISIS.

He had conducted reconnaissance
near a synagogue in the city and

also attempted to obtain a knife."

"Pakistan

Between Wednesday night and
Thursday, Pakistani security forces

neutralized six terrorists from the
banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan

(TTP) attempting to infiltrate
Balochistanâs Zhob district from

the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

The operation took place in the
general area of Sambaza, Zhob District.

Security forces effectively
engaged the group and thwarted

their infiltration attempt.

Troops recovered a significant
cache of weapons, ammunition, and

explosives during the operation."

"Philippines

The secretary of the vice mayor of Parang,
Maguindanao del Norte, was wounded in

an alleged grenade attack on Friday
before dawn in Barangay Nituan, Parang.

The grenade was reportedly thrown through
the window by unknown assailants while

the victim was sleeping inside her room."

"Syria

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
conducted a security operation

targeting two leaders of ISIS
terrorist cells in Deir Ezzor.

The operation was based on precise
information, and the terrorists were

captured in the town of Khisham.

The captured terrorists were involved
in carrying out terrorist acts against

SDF forces and civilian institutions,
as well as targeting fuel tankers."

"Turkey

On Tuesday, counter-terrorism
police forces arrested two

suspected al-Qaeda terrorists
during an operation in Istanbul."

"Yemen

Yemen's Houthi rebels have detained
more UN personnel, according

to a United Nations statement.

The rebels had previously
held 13 staff members in June.

The statement does not specify
the number of people arrested."

Military Conflict

"Democratic Republic of Congo

M23 rebels claimed to have killed
the military governor of North Kivu

Province on Thursday as he traveled
near the town of Sake in the province."

"Democratic Republic of Congo

The M23 rebels are battling the
Congolese army and have seized the town

of Sake, only 27 kilometers from Goma,
the largest city in eastern Congo.

The rebels are advancing closer to
Goma as bombs were heard on the distant

outskirts of the city on Thursday.

Hundreds of civilians were wounded
and brought to hospital in Goma."

"Gaza Strip

Over the past day, the IDF has reported
firing on threats in the Gaza Strip.

Warning shots were fired at suspects
who posed a threat, and in one instance,

soldiers opened fire to remove the threat.

The IDF is committed to implementing the
agreement to return hostages and will take

necessary actions to protect soldiers.

Palestinian civilians are urged
to obey IDF instructions and avoid

approaching deployed forces."

"Lebanon

The IDF has conducted strikes
in southern Lebanon to eliminate

threats and has destroyed Hezbollah
weapon depots and observation posts.

The military states that it is
operating in accordance with the

ceasefire agreement and will continue
to monitor Hezbollah's activities.

Prime Minister Netanyahu's office
announced that the IDF will remain in

certain areas of southern Lebanon beyond
day 60 of the ceasefire due to Lebanon's

failure to fully enforce its obligations."

"Myanmar

On Sunday, Peoples Revolution Army of
Magway (PRA-Magway) insurgents ambushed

four junta military vehicles near the
village of Goke Gyi, Ngape Township,

killing at least five regime soldiers."

"Myanmar

On Monday, junta forces dropped more
than 20 bombs in villages located

between Bawlake and WanMaLan in
Bawlake Township, Karenni State.

The attacks were carried out
using reconnaissance aircraft.

The extent of damage and
casualties were unknown."

"Myanmar

The military junta has intensified
attacks on Kyaikto and Bilin Townships

in Mon State, Myanmar, using mortar
shells, drone strikes, and airstrikes.

The attacks have caused injuries
to residents and significant

damage to homes and businesses.

On Sunday, an 81 mm mortar shell
exploded in Khaywea Village.

While no casualties were reported,
the explosion caused severe damage

to a nearby electricity pole,
sparking fires that spread to nearby

huts and caused a forest fire.

Junta forces also carried out a
drone strike in Sitkwin Village,

destroying a general store.

Furthermore, last Saturday, junta
forces launched a drone attack

along the Asia Road between
Hngetpyawtaw and Takaychaunghpyar

villages in Kyaikto Township."

"Myanmar

According to sources, intense clashes
have erupted between Myanmar's military

junta and Karen National Union (KNU)
insurgents over efforts to reopen the

Myawaddy-Kawkareik section of the Asia
Highway along the Thai-Myanmar border.

Resistance sources confirmed that
heavy fighting had been reported since

the morning of January 20 in areas
surrounding the mountains of Seikhpu Taung

and Yin Kwel Taung along the highway.

According to a Kawkareik resident, the
junta appears to be clearing resistance

forces stationed along the highway, likely
in response to pressure from Thailand, in

preparation to reopen the route by March.

"
"Myanmar

Amid ongoing clashes between Myanmar's
junta forces and ethnic Rakhine rebels,

approximately two-thirds of the residents
in a beach resort town in the country's

heartland have fled their homes.

The fighting, which has occurred near the
popular beach destinations of Chaung Thar

and Shwe Thaung Yan in Pathein township,
Ayeyarwady region, underscores the junta's

waning control as the civil war drags on.

Typically home to around 6,000
households, Chaung Thar now has only

about 2,000 residents remaining."

"Nigeria

On Wednesday, the Nigerian Defense
Headquarters announced that its forces

killed one of the top terrorist commanders
and 31 other terrorists and wounded

others during operations in Zamfara and
Sokoto States in northwest Nigeria."

"Philippines

According to a senior Philippine
government source, the US has

deployed Typhon missile launchers to
a new location in the Philippines.

The launchers, which can fire
multipurpose missiles up to thousands

of kilometers, were previously located
at Laoag airfield and moved to another

location on the island of Luzon.

The Typhon system can hit targets in both
China and Russia from the Philippines,

and its mobility is seen as a way to make
it more survivable during a conflict.

This deployment is part of a US drive to
amass a variety of anti-ship weapons in

Asia and has drawn criticism from China,
which sees it as fueling an arms race."

"Russia

Russia experienced drone attacks in 11
regions, including Moscow and Crimea.

The Russian Ministry of Defense
claimed to have shot down 121

drones, with one being over Moscow.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin confirmed the
repelling of a drone attack in the Moscow

region with no casualties or damage.

Temporary flight restrictions
were imposed at several airports."

"Russia

Drones operated by the Security
Service of Ukraine and the Special

Operations Forces attacked the Ryazan
Oil Refining Company and the Kremniy

El microelectronics plant in Bryansk.

Fires broke out at the
production facilities, including

the oil pumping station.

The microelectronics plant is a key
enterprise for Russia's microelectronics

industry, producing components
for strategic weapons systems."

"Russia

South Korea reports North Korea plans
to send more troops to Russia after

suffering heavy losses against Ukraine.

About 300 North Korean soldiers
have died, and 2,700 were injured

fighting alongside Russian forces.

North Korea originally deployed
10,000-12,000 troops in October and

is now preparing to send additional
soldiers to replace casualties.

The troops lack combat experience
and have been vulnerable to

drone and artillery strikes.

North Korea continues preparing
for potential ICBM tests and sees

military cooperation with Russia
as a strategic opportunity."

"South Sudan

Over the past three days, clashes
between the South Sudan Peopleâs

Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the Sudan
Peopleâs Liberation Movement/Army in

Opposition (SPLM-IO) have been ongoing
over illegal checkpoints in Nagero

County, Western Equatoria State (WES).

The clashes resulted in an
unspecified number of casualties."

"Sudan

On Thursday, the Sudanese forces
and the Rapid Support Forces

(RSF) engaged in heavy artillery
exchanges across El Fasher.

Sudanese forces, positioned west
of the city, targeted RSF units

to the east, south, and far north.

In response, the RSF shelled the
headquarters of the army's 6th Infantry

Division, the city's main market,
and the Abu Shouk refugee camp.

The attack on the camp resulted in
the death of at least two people

and the wounding of seven others.

According to witnesses, Sudanese warplanes
targeted RSF positions around El Fasher,

dropping several explosive barrels
along the El Fasher-Kutum road, near the

inland port, and in the vicinity of the
Jebel El Seel camp east of the city."

"Sudan

On Friday afternoon, Sudanese forces
linked its forces in Kadro, northern

Bahri, and Omdurman with those
at the signal corps in the south.

The signal corps is located north of
the General Command of the Armed Forces,

separated by the Blue Nile River.

This advance marks a significant
step by the Sudanese army in breaking

the nearly two-year siege of the
army headquarters from the north."

"Syria

Nine militiamen of National Army
factions were killed and 11 others

injured in SDF military operations
targeting Turkish bases in Al-Hawshariyah

village in Manbij countryside and Deir
Hafer countryside in eastern Aleppo.

SDF also attacked a gathering of
Turkish vehicles and soldiers in

Atshanah village in southern Manbij,
with no reported casualties."

"Syria

Turkish fighter jets conducted airstrikes
on Tishreen Dam and Al-Teinah village

in the Ain Al-Arab countryside.

No casualties were reported.

Turkish forces also fired heavy
artillery on Umm Harmal village,

Rabeâat, and Khirbet Al-Shaâaer
villages, causing material damage

and panic among civilians."

"Syria

On Thursday, Turkish forces
conducted airstrikes on the

village of Tina, Sarrin City.

Casualty figures were unknown."

"Taiwan

Taiwan tracked 10 Chinese military
aircraft and seven naval vessels

around its country between 6 a.m.

on Thursday and 6 a.m.

on Friday.

Nine aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait
median line in the countryâs southwestern

Air Defense Identification Zone."

"Ukraine

Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,500 Russian

soldiers over the past day.

Over 190 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."

"Ukraine

With artillery and UAV support, the
Russian forces launched offensive

operations in Velyka Novosilka and
conducted around 80 shelling attacks.

The Khortytsia Operational-Strategic
Group of Troops reported that despite

fierce battles, Ukrainian soldiers are
holding their defense, and the Russians

have suffered significant losses."

"Ukraine

In the Kyiv region, three people
were killed in a Russian drone

attack, and one person suffered
burns and was taken to the hospital.

An apartment building, private houses,
cars, a shop, an outbuilding, and

a fence were damaged in the attack.

In Fastiv district, a residential building
was hit, causing a fire and destruction.

150 residents were evacuated,
and an injured man and

trapped woman were rescued.

In Brovary, a residential building was
destroyed, and a fire was extinguished."

"Ukraine

Kharkiv is under attack by strike
drones, with one hit reported

in the Osnovianskyi district.

The mayor and the head of the regional
military administration have urged

caution and reported no casualties so far.

Russian drones are still
detected in the sky."

"Ukraine

The Ukrainian Defense Forces
successfully shot down 25 Russian

attack drones, including Shahed UAVs,
while 27 additional drones were lost.

The Russian forces launched an attack
using 58 drones from multiple directions.

Ukrainian air defense forces
repelled the attack and shot

down drones in various regions."

"Ukraine

Russian forces are attempting to bypass
the town of Pokrovsk from the flanks, but

their efforts have been repelled so far.

They have intensified shelling
attacks using long-range weapons

like missiles and drones."

"Ukraine

The number of wounded in the missile
attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen

to 54, with one person killed.

The Russians carried out multiple
strikes in seven settlements of

the region, including air strikes
and rocket launcher attacks.

There were 733 reports of destruction to
residential buildings and infrastructure."

"West Bank

Palestinian media outlets report an
Israeli drone strike in Qabatiya, near

Jenin, resulting in multiple casualties.

The IDF has not provided any official
statement regarding the incident."

"West Bank

An Israeli drone strike near Qabatiya
in the West Bank killed two people.

The strike was part of a large-scale
Israeli operation in Jenin,

launched after the Gaza truce.

The Israeli military targeted a vehicle
with a ""terrorist cell"" inside."

Political Conflict

"Afghanistan

Afghanistan's Taliban government
rejected the arrest warrant sought by the

International Criminal Court (ICC) for its
leaders, calling it politically motivated.

The Taliban accused the ICC of having
double standards and ignoring war

crimes committed by foreign forces
during the occupation of Afghanistan.

They argued that the court should
not impose its interpretation

of human rights on the world."

"Colombia

Colombia has asked Venezuela for
assistance in quelling border violence

that has resulted in at least 80
deaths and displaced 40,000 people in

the lawless Catatumbo border region.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro
has proposed a âjoint plan to

eradicate armed gangs on the borderâ
after a week of bloody violence.

The violence is attributed to clashes
between rival armed groups, including

the 5,800-strong leftist militia
National Liberation Army (ELN), in

the northeastern Catatumbo region."

"Iran

A warning has been issued to seafarers
in the Persian Gulf regarding attempts by

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC) to force ships into Iranian waters.

The British military's United Kingdom
Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO)

has reported several incidents of VHF
radio challenges to vessels, which

are believed to be part of Iran's
large-scale exercise, Great Prophet XVIII.

While Iran has a history of
harassing and impounding vessels,

recent attacks have been carried
out by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

Iranian media has also
reported a forthcoming Guard

exercise in the Persian Gulf."

"Israel

The list of names published by Hamas of
the female hostages set to be released

tomorrow violates the ceasefire agreement.

According to the agreement, female
civilians should be released first,

followed by female soldiers, the
elderly, and those who are extremely ill.

On Sunday, three female
civilian hostages were freed.

Israeli officials have asked the
media not to publish the names until

the families have been notified.

"
"Israel

The UN Palestinian relief agency
UNRWA has been instructed to

cease operations in Jerusalem and
evacuate all premises by January

30, according to Israel's UN envoy.

A law prohibiting UNRWA's operation
on Israeli land and contact with

Israeli authorities will come
into effect on the same day.

Israel's annexation of East
Jerusalem is not recognized by most

of the international community."

"Israel

The UN Palestinian relief agency
UNRWA has been instructed to

cease operations in Jerusalem and
evacuate all premises by January

30, according to Israel's UN envoy.

A law prohibiting UNRWA's operation
on Israeli land and contact with

Israeli authorities will come
into effect on the same day.

Israel's annexation of East
Jerusalem is not recognized by most

of the international community."

"Lebanon

Israel is likely to keep troops stationed
in parts of southern Lebanon beyond

the ceasefire deadline, according to
an unnamed senior Israeli official.

The security cabinet has yet to decide
whether to approve the IDF's withdrawal

or request a 30-day extension.

Israel claims that the Lebanese
army has been slow in deploying,

allowing Hezbollah to regroup.

The IDF would coordinate
with the US administration

if it keeps troops stationed.

Talks are ongoing with the
US regarding the extension."

"Lebanon

The White House is calling for a
short, temporary extension to the

60-day deadline for Israel to withdraw
its forces from southern Lebanon.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
announced that Israel would not

complete its withdrawal in time,
violating the ceasefire terms.

The White House supports Israel's
stance and emphasizes the goal

of preventing Hezbollah from
threatening Lebanon and its neighbors.

The IDF has started the withdrawal from
central regions, and the extension is

being finalized with regional partners."

"Lebanon

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has
announced that Israel will not complete

its full withdrawal from southern
Lebanon by the 60-day deadline set

in the ceasefire deal with Hezbollah.

The delay is due to Lebanon's
failure to fully enforce its

obligations under the agreement.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will
continue the phased withdrawal process

in coordination with the United States.

The IDF is currently deployed in
several villages in southern Lebanon,

while the Lebanese Armed Forces
have deployed in the western sector.

There are concerns about the possibility
of renewed hostilities with Hezbollah if

the IDF stays beyond the 60-day limit."

"Myanmar

More than 40 soldiers fighting
for Myanmarâs junta defected to

ethnic Karen insurgents since
August, according to rebels.

These soldiers were primarily
new conscripts forcibly recruited

under the military service law.

The defections occurred between August
1 and last Saturday, January 18,

2025, and the soldiers surrendered
to the Peopleâs Defense Forces

(PDF), allied with the Karen National
Liberation Army (KNLA) in Karen State."

"Pakistan

During a press conference on
Friday, senior Counter-Terrorism

Department officials stated that
key commanders and other militants

from various militant groups in
Balochistan surrendered to government

forces in the Balochistan region.

The militants turned over their
weapons during the surrender."

"Syria

Syria's new ruling administration
has canceled a contract with

Russian firm STG Stroytransgaz to
manage and operate Tartous Port.

The contract was annulled due
to the firm's failure to fulfill

the terms of the 2019 deal.

The contract is separate from the
Russian naval base in Tartous.

Russia and Syria are in talks
about the future of Russia's

military presence in Syria."

"United States

According to an internal memo,
US Secretary of State Marco

Rubio has ordered a halt to most
US foreign aid, with exceptions

for funding to Israel and Egypt.

The memo states that no new funds will
be allocated until each proposed award

or extension is reviewed and approved in
accordance with President Trump's agenda."

"West Bank

The US Treasury Department has
announced the termination of sanctions

against violent settlers in the West
Bank, in line with an executive order

signed by President Donald Trump.

These sanctions were authorized
by former President Joe Biden last

February in response to Israel's
failure to address settler violence.

Seventeen individuals and 16 entities were
designated under this sanctions regime."

Civil Unrest

"Israel

Dozens of family members and supporters
of the hostages have blocked Tel Aviv's

major highway to protest against Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's potential

decision to resume the war before the
hostage deal is fully implemented.

The families argue that going back
to war would endanger those left

behind and allow extremists to
bury the hostages in the tunnels."

"Mexico

On Thursday, thousands of people
protested in the streets of Culiacan,

the capital of Mexicoâs Sinaloa
state, against the killing of two

young brothers, Gael and Alexander
Sarmiento, aged 12 and 9 respectively.

The boys and their father
were fatally shot during an

attempted carjacking on Sunday.

The incident has sparked outrage,
with mothers and children in school

uniforms joining the protests, calling
for an end to the months-long Sinaloa

cartel violence that has affected
the city and the resignation of

the Sinaloa governor, Ruben Rocha."

"Serbia

Many schools, bookstores, theatres, and
bars in Belgrade remained closed as part

of an anti-government protest following
a fatal railway station roof collapse.

Demonstrators are demanding swift
judicial action against those

responsible for the disaster, citing
corruption and shoddy construction work.

Teachers' unions supported a
student strike, resulting in

the closure of most schools.

Thousands of students gathered in
front of the government building,

observing a moment of silence before
planning to march across Belgrade."

Cyber

"United States

Conduent has confirmed
experiencing disruptions due to a

cyberattack, affecting government
agencies in multiple US states.

The Wisconsin Department of Children
and Families reported that organizations

in four states were impacted by a
""global network issue"" at Conduent.

The incident affected payments
and a customer service line.

Conduent stated that the cyber
security incident has been contained,

and all systems have been restored."

Accidents

"Ethiopia

A public transport bus accident in
Dawunt district of the Amhara region

resulted in the deaths of 25 people
and injuries to several others.

The bus was en route to
Dessie when it crashed."

"India

At least eight people died, and
seven were injured in a blast at an

ordnance factory in Maharashtra, India.

The factory manufactures
propellants and explosives.

The explosion caused a roof to
collapse, trapping workers inside.

Medical and rescue teams are at the site.

The cause of the blast is unknown."

"Syria

A civilian was killed and another injured
by an old landmine explosion in Al-Kum

town in the eastern countryside of Homs.

In the Athariyah area in the eastern
countryside of Hama, another civilian

was injured while herding sheep.

In the eastern countryside of Aleppo, a
landmine killed a young man, and another

man was injured while driving his car.

Additionally, a child was
injured in Mazraâat Al-Naâmat

village in the same area."

"United States

On Thursday, a small plane crashed
in a field near Horseshoe Bend Road,

near the Columbia area of Tuolumne
County, injuring both people on board.

An investigation of the
crash was underway."

Weapons

"Greece

Greek authorities discovered a cache
of makeshift bombs, explosives, hand

grenades, and thousands of bullets
during a raid on a warehouse in Crete.

The explosive devices were found
ready for use, and one person has been

detained and will face legal proceedings.

This is the second operation
of its kind this week."

Other Events

"India

On Thursday, a Special National
Investigation Agency (NIA) Court

in Guwahati convicted and sentenced
two men for their involvement in a

case related to the recruitment and
radicalization of youth to raise a module

of the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT),
which is affiliated with the Al-Qaeda

in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS).

The accused, both from Barpeta
district in Assam, were sentenced

under various sections of the Indian
Penal Code (IPC) and the Unlawful

Activities (Prevention) Act (UA(P)A)."

"Nigeria

A federal court in Nigeria has
declared the Islamist Lakurawa

group a terrorist organization.

This allows the military to use maximum
force against the group, which has become

a security threat in the northwest.

The Lakurawa group operates mainly in
Kebbi and Sokoto states, exacerbating

insecurity in Nigeria's Muslim north."

"United States

On Thursday, a US district judge
sentenced two Somali men living in Tucson,

Ahmed Mahad Mohamed and Abdi Yemeni
Hussein, to prison for their conspiracy

to provide material support to ISIS.

Mohamed, 27, was sentenced to 11
years in prison, while Hussein, 26,

received a sentence of eight years.

Both men will also face lifetime terms of
supervised release and will be deported

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