Iran-Hamas ceasefire deal approved, unrest in South Sudan, and Russia and Iran sign a treaty
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for January 18, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
Friday saw unrest in South Sudan, a
Russia-Iran treaty signed, and approval
of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal.
We collected 70 events and have a
lot to cover, so let's get started.
Terrorism,
"Algeria
On Wednesday, Islamic State in
the Greater Sahara terrorists
abducted a Spanish tourist and
several others in southern Algeria.
The terrorists later released all of
the hostages except the Spanish tourist.
The hostage reportedly was taken
to Mali after being abducted."
"Colombia
Thirty people have been killed in
violence between FARC and ELN rebels
near Colombia's border with Venezuela.
The government has suspended peace
talks with the ELN, accusing them
of committing ""war crimes"".
The clashes were caused by a territorial
dispute linked to the cocaine trade."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
Allied Democratic Forces insurgents
reportedly killed 12 Christians
during an attack on the village
of Masakuki on Wednesday.
The rebels also abducted 16
other villagers and burned
houses and motorcycles."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
On Wednesday, Allied Democratic Forces
(ADF) insurgents announced that it
killed 41 Christians in the village
of Makoko in the Lubero region."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
On Thursday, Allied Democratic
Forces (ADF) insurgents killed a
soldier's wife during an attack on the
village of Mikua, near the Kididiwe,
in the Bapakombe Bakondo area.
The rebels also torched several
homes during the attack."
A joint military operation conducted by
the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
and Uganda rescued 37 hostages taken by
the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels.
This operation, which occurred in
eastern DRC, included both airstrikes
and ground troop involvement.
The collaboration between the two
countries represents a significant effort
to combat the growing threat posed by
the ADF, which has been responsible
for numerous attacks in the region."
"India
On Friday, a Maoist IED blast
injured two Border Security Force
(BSF) members near the village
of Garpa, Narayanpur District."
"India
Security forces killed at least 12
Maoists during a clash in the south
Bastar area of Chhattisgarh on Thursday."
"Morocco
On Wednesday, police arrested a
suspected terrorist in the Taourirt area
for involvement in a terrorism plot.
Police seized suspicious chemical
substances that could be used in the
manufacturing of homemade explosives."
"Nigeria
Last Saturday, January 11, five Nigerian
soldiers and six Lakurawa terrorists were
killed during a clash in the Gudu Local
Government Area (LGA) of Sokoto State.
After the clash, soldiers recovered
four AK47 rifles, 160 rounds of 7.62mm
special ammo, and a box of 12.7mm
ammo."
"Pakistan
Six people were killed in a
rocket attack on an aid convoy
in Kurram district, Pakistan.
The convoy was delivering humanitarian
assistance when it was targeted,
leading to multiple casualties among
the aid workers and security personnel.
Local authorities are investigating
the attack, which underscores the
risks faced by aid convoys operating
in conflict-affected areas."
"Syria
A car bomb exploded in the center of
Manbij, eastern Aleppo, marking the
fifth explosion in recently seized areas.
The extent of losses is unknown.
The area has seen clashes between the
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the
Turkish-backed National Army for over
a month with no territorial changes."
"Syria
An SDF fighter was found dead
in Abu Khashab town, believed to
have been killed by ISIS members.
In a separate incident, an ISIS
cell attacked an SDF military
vehicle in Al-Sha'fah town with an
IED, but no details on casualties
or damage are available yet."
"Syria
A powerful explosion in Manbij,
eastern Aleppo, caused by an
improvised explosive device (IED)
planted in a civilian vehicle, killed
two men and injured eight others.
The blast damaged parked
cars and nearby homes."
"United States
U.S.
Attorney Michael F.
Easley, Jr.
announced the unsealing of a criminal
complaint against a Durham man
charged with attempting to provide
material support to ISIS, a designated
foreign terrorist organization.
The complaint alleges that Alexander
Justin White, age 29, was arrested
on December 4, 2024, as he was
preparing to board an international
flight to Morocco to join ISIS.
If convicted, White faces
up to 20 years in prison."
Military Conflict
"Gaza Strip
Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry
reports 88 deaths in the past 24 hours.
Israel denies targeting civilians,
while Hamas uses them as shields."
"Iraq
A 25-year-old man was injured when an
unidentified drone crashed in Duhok,
Kurdistan Region, on January 17, 2025.
The drone's origin is unknown, and
the area is a conflict zone between
the Turkish army and the PKK."
"Iraq
Iraqi and Kurdistan Regional
Government security forces conducted
a joint operation in the Gharaw
Palkana area of Khurmatu district,
a known Islamic State stronghold
that connects several provinces.
The operation utilized ground forces
and airstrikes to target ISIS positions,
resulting in heavy explosions.
Officials highlighted the strategic
significance of disrupting ISIS movements
and logistics in this critical region."
"Myanmar
On Wednesday, insurgent rocket attacks
on the town of Myaing hit the Thiri Min
Galar Monastery, injuring two civilians."
"Russia
The Ukrainian Defense Forces have
successfully hit the radar equipment
of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile
system in the Belgorod region of Russia.
This was part of precision strikes on
military targets of the Russian army.
The radar station and vehicles
of the Russian army were damaged.
Previously, the Ukrainian Defense
Forces also struck an oil depot
in the Voronezh region of Russia."
"Somalia
On Friday, the United States
announced it had carried out an
airstrike in the Harf Sufyan district
of Somalia, killing at least 10
Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab terrorists.
In a statement, the U.S.
government clarified that the airstrikes
were conducted in self-defense at the
request of the Somali Federal Government.
Additionally, the U.S.
said it had provided support to
Somali forces by evacuating soldiers
who were attacked while engaged in
combat against the terrorist group."
"Sudan
On Wednesday, Rapid Support Forces
(RSF) killed two people in Abu Ushar.
The paramilitary group also looted
properties in Al-Kamlin, near Al-Hasahisa.
The RSF also reportedly
confiscated the area's Star Link
satellite internet terminals,
isolating residents in the area."
"Sudan
According to Resistance Committees,
Rapid Support Forces (RSF) reportedly
abducted an unspecified number of
civilians in the town of Al-Hasahisa and
demanded a ransom for their release."
"Sudan
On Thursday, a Rapid Support Forces
(RSF) attack near the town of Kabakabiyah
resulted in heavy casualties to a
newly formed Sudanese joint force.
The Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM)
faction and the Gathering of Sudan
Liberation Forces created the joint
force on Monday to protect civilians
and deliver humanitarian aid in the area
under their control in the Darfur region."
"Sudan
Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attacked
several villages north of Wad
Rawah, killing four civilians
and wounding dozens of others.
During the attacks, residents fled the
area by boat across the Blue Nile."
"Sudan
On Wednesday, Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
attacked the village of Al-Khizan in the
Abu Guta administrative area, killing
15 people and wounding 20 others."
"Sudan
On Wednesday, Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
attacked the village of Al-Ashara in the
Abu Guta area, killing a man and his son."
"Syria
Turkish airstrikes near the Teshreen
Dam in the Manbij countryside in
eastern Aleppo have resulted in
the death of five civilians and
the injury of nearly 40 others."
"Syria
Eight members of pro-Turkey factions
were killed in military operations
by the SDF in eastern Aleppo.
SDF also attacked pro-Turkey factions
near Tal Syriatel, disabling vehicles
and destroying weapons depots.
Details on material damage
are not yet available."
"Syria
SDF fighters successfully intercepted
and destroyed three kamikaze drones
launched by factions of the National
Army in Sakiro village, east of Ain
Issa in the Al-Raqqah countryside.
No casualties were reported."
"Syria
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched
artillery attacks on two Turkish bases
in Bab Al-Faraj and Abdulhayy in Abu
Rasin town in Al-Hasakah countryside.
No casualties have been reported."
"Syria
SDF shot down a Turkish drone
in the Kobane area in the
eastern countryside of Aleppo.
The drone was on an inspection mission and
was targeted by SDF anti-aircraft troops.
Turkish fighter jets had previously
conducted airstrikes south of Sarin
in the Ain Al-Arab countryside."
"Syria
A Turkish drone attacked a building
in Al-Qamishli, causing a fuel
tank to explode and damaging the
building and surrounding areas.
No casualties were reported.
Additionally, the drone executed
an airstrike on an SDF military
site in Al-Raqqah countryside,
with no casualties reported."
"Syria
The Turkish Ministry of National Defense
announced on Friday that its forces
neutralized 29 Kurdistan Workers' Party
(PKK) terrorists during operations in
the Operation Euphrates Shield/Peace
Springs Zones of northern Syria.
Turkey uses the term ""neutralize""
to indicate that a member
has been killed or captured."
"Taiwan
Taiwan tracked 13 Chinese military
aircraft and seven naval vessels
around its country between 6 a.m.
on Thursday and 6 a.m.
on Friday.
11 aircraft crossed the Taiwan
Strait median line in the countryâs
northern and southwestern Air
Defense Identification Zone."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,670 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Over 220 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
A man was killed in Antonivka,
Kherson region, due to a Russian UAV
attack on a public transport stop.
Russian troops have been attacking
Antonivka with UAVs since morning.
The head of the Kherson Regional State
Administration reported the incident."
"Ukraine
A night attack by Russian drones
in the Kyiv region resulted in
injuries to a 12-year-old boy,
who is in satisfactory condition.
The attack also caused a fire
in a cafe and damage to a nearby
private house, car, and fences.
Fortunately, no critical
infrastructure was hit."
"Ukraine
The Ukrainian Defense Forces have
successfully shot down 33 Russian
Shahed attack UAVs and other
drones, while nine drones were lost.
The Russians launched an air attack
using ballistic missiles and various
types of drones from multiple directions.
However, the attack was repelled by the
Ukrainian Air Force and Defense Forces.
The downed drones caused damage
to buildings in several regions."
"Ukraine
A Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine,
resulted in the deaths of at least four
civilians and injured several others.
The attack targeted a residential
area, causing significant damage
to buildings and infrastructure.
Emergency services are currently engaged
in rescue operations and assessing
the extent of the destruction."
"Ukraine
Emergency and rescue operations
have been completed in Kryvyi Rih
following a Russian missile strike.
Four people were killed and nine
injured, with five hospitalized.
Damage includes four multi-story
buildings, 17 private
houses, and several cars."
"Ukraine
Russian kamikaze drones attacked
the Nikopol and Marhanets
communities in the Dnipro region,
damaging houses and a store.
Two private houses and a
shop were damaged, but no
one was killed or injured."
Political Conflict
"China
On January 16, 2025, Vice Foreign
Minister Chen Xiaodong and Undersecretary
of the Department of Foreign Affairs
of the Philippines Maria Theresa P.
Lazaro co-chaired the tenth meeting
of the China-Philippines Bilateral
Consultation Mechanism on the South
China Sea (BCM) in Xiamen, Fujian.
The two sides reiterated the importance
of maintaining peace and stability in
the South China Sea, as this serves the
common interests of regional countries,
including China and the Philippines.
They agreed to strengthen maritime
dialogue, communication, and contact,
properly manage disputes and differences,
and promote practical cooperation in
the Coast Guard, marine science and
technology, and environmental protection."
"Colombia
On Friday, Colombian President Gustavo
Petro suspended peace talks with the
leftist National Liberation Army (ELN)
after accusing the group of committing
a war crime in the Catatumbo region.
The suspension came in response to
an ELN attack the previous day, which
killed at least five demobilized members
of the former FARC rebel group who
were part of the 2016 peace agreement.
The ELN also launched attacks against
members of the Estado Mayor Central
(EMC), a FARC dissident faction engaged in
separate peace talks with the government."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
On Wednesday, at least 600 Zaire
self-defense group militiamen surrendered
to government forces in the town of
Mabanga, Djugu territory, Ituri province.
Mabanga territory is a strategic
area due to its valuable
resources, such as gold mines.
It has been the site of ongoing disputes
between local and regional armed groups."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
The United Nations reports that over
230,000 people have fled the eastern
Democratic Republic of Congo since
January 1 due to ongoing violence.
This surge in displacement is primarily
attributed to the conflict involving
rebel groups, including M23 rebels, who
have seized key towns in the region.
The situation has been further
exacerbated by the collapse of peace
talks in mid-December, which were
aimed at ending decades of chaos
and bloodshed in eastern Congo."
"Israel
National Security Minister Itamar
Ben Gvir stated that his Otzma
Yehudit party will leave the
coalition if the hostage-ceasefire
deal with Hamas is approved.
He criticized the deal for
releasing terrorists and harming
Israel's defense capabilities.
Ben Gvir expressed his support for
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
but emphasized that he cannot be
part of a ""defeatist agreement."""
"Israel
The Prime Minister's Office
confirms that despite delays,
hostages are still expected to
be released from Gaza on Sunday.
The ceasefire deal needs approval
from the security cabinet and the full
cabinet before it can go into effect.
Once approved, three female
hostages will be freed.
The High Court may hear
petitions against the deal, but
it is unlikely to intervene."
"Israel
The Israeli security cabinet has
approved the hostage release-ceasefire
deal agreed to in Doha.
The full cabinet will now discuss and
vote on the deal before Shabbat begins.
The approval was based on an examination
of diplomatic, security, and humanitarian
aspects, with the understanding
that it supports the war's goals.
The PMO did not disclose the voting
details, but two parties have stated
they will not support the deal.
Despite bureaucratic delays, the plan will
still be implemented on Sunday, and the
High Court is not expected to intervene."
"Israel
The full government approved
the hostage-ceasefire agreement
with Hamas, following the
security cabinet's endorsement.
24 ministers voted in
favor, while eight opposed.
The agreement will take effect
on Sunday, and opponents can
petition the High Court of Justice,
although intervention is unlikely."
"North Korea
North Korea has condemned recent
joint military drills conducted by
South Korea, Japan, and the United
States, threatening to respond
more intensively in self-defense.
The exercises included air drills
with US B-1B bombers and followed
North Korea's recent missile launches,
which are seen as a message to
the incoming Trump administration.
North Korea's foreign ministry
expressed serious concern over these
provocations, asserting the need
to protect its security interests.
Relations between the Koreas remain
tense, with North Korea's missile activity
violating UN sanctions and ongoing
military support for Ukraine reported."
"Qatar
Israeli and Hamas negotiating
teams have signed a hostage
release and ceasefire deal in Doha.
The agreement was delayed due to a dispute
over the identities of the Palestinian
security prisoners to be released.
Netanyahu is working to convince
far-right ministers to support the
deal, and there are claims that the US
has given guarantees allowing Israel to
resume fighting after the first stage."
"Russia
Iranian President Masoud
Pezeshkian visited Russia to sign
a cooperation treaty and talks
with President Vladimir Putin.
The treaty covers trade,
military cooperation, science,
education, and culture."
"Sudan
The United States imposed sanctions on
Thursday against Abdel Fattah al-Burhan,
the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces,
citing his destabilization of the country
and undermining of democratic progress.
Under the penalties announced by
the Treasury Department's Office of
Foreign Assets Control, any property
or assets owned or controlled
by al-Burhan have been blocked."
"Syria
Syria's new government condemned
Israeli incursions following
a strike that killed three and
injured five in Ghadir al-Bustan.
Ahmad al-Sharaa criticized Israel's
justification of military presence due
to Iranian militias, asserting that the
excuse is invalid post-Assad's ouster.
He welcomed international forces to the
buffer zone, with Qatar's foreign minister
also calling for Israel's withdrawal.
Syrian officials emphasized the
need for respect for sovereignty and
international pressure on Israel, as
local residents expressed fear and
frustration over ongoing strikes and
military actions in their villages."
"Yemen
On Thursday, the Iranian-backed Houthi
rebel group in Yemen announced an
end to attacks on Israel and maritime
operations in the region, following
an Israeli-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza."
Civil Unrest
"Serbia
Thousands of Serbians, led by university
students, protested in Belgrade, demanding
objective reporting and justice for those
killed in a train station roof collapse.
The protests began after the
incident on November 1, and students
have been blocking universities
and organizing street blockades.
The protesters denounced smear campaigns
against them on the public broadcaster
and called for objective reporting."
"South Sudan
On Friday morning, violent
protests in the capital city of
Bor, Jonglei State, resulted in
at least 16 people being injured.
Additionally, 58 Sudanese nationals
are currently under government
protection following the unrest.
The protests across parts of South
Sudan were sparked by the killing
of several South Sudanese nationals,
which was captured on camera
after the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF)
captured Wad Medani on Saturday."
"South Sudan
South Sudan has imposed a
nationwide curfew starting at 6 p.m.
local time following violent protests
targeting Sudanese nationals in Juba.
The unrest was sparked by graphic
videos of South Sudanese being
killed in Sudan, leading to revenge
attacks on Sudanese-owned businesses.
Police Chief Abraham Manyuat emphasized
the need for public order and urged
citizens to report disturbances.
Clashes resulted in injuries, and
the government has summoned the
Sudanese ambassador to address the
killings of its nationals in Sudan,
calling for the protection of South
Sudanese caught in the violence.
"
"South Sudan
On Thursday, riots erupted in Juba,
the capital of South Sudan, as
demonstrators took to the streets
to protest the massacre of South
Sudanese citizens in neighboring Sudan.
Amidst the chaos, protesters looted
shops belonging to Sudanese citizens
and attacked the Sudanese embassy,
resulting in the death of a diplomat.
Police responded by firing into
the air to disperse the crowd.
The news of the civilian casualties,
including South Sudanese, following
the capture of Wad Madani by the
Sudanese Armed Forces (FAS), has
sparked unrest in South Sudan."
"United Kingdom
A convoy of tractors is traveling
to Sussex supermarkets to protest
against the government's changes
to inheritance tax on farms.
The proposed changes, which come
into effect from April 2026, will
introduce a £1m cap to agricultural
property relief and make working farms
liable to pay 20% inheritance tax on
properties and land valued at over £1m.
Farmers are concerned that
this will impact food security
and make their farms unviable.
The protest aims to raise awareness
and gather support from the public."
Cyber
"Netherlands
A significant DDoS attack has
targeted the joint network of Dutch
universities, causing widespread
internet disruptions across the country.
Starting around 8:20 AM on January 17,
2025, institutions reported slow or no
internet connectivity, with issues noted
in cities like Amsterdam and Utrecht.
This follows previous attacks
earlier in the week that had
already impacted services.
The Technical University
Eindhoven announced that classes
will resume after the weekend,
with catch-up sessions planned.
Additionally, a separate DDoS attack
affected the DigiD system, disrupting
various government services."
Weapons
"Lebanon
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
reports that UN peacekeepers have
discovered over 100 weapons caches
belonging to Hezbollah and its allies in
south Lebanon since the beginning of the
ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.
The presence of armed personnel and
weapons other than those of the Lebanese
army and the UNIFIL peacekeeping force
violates a UN Security Council decision.
The truce agreement requires Israel to
cede its positions in southern Lebanon
to the Lebanese army, while Hezbollah
must retreat north of the Litani River."
"Syria
Syria reported that it thwarted an attempt
to smuggle rifles and drones into Lebanon
through an illegal border crossing.
The Syrian military claimed to have
intercepted the operation, emphasizing
its commitment to securing the border
and preventing arms trafficking."
Accidents
"Iran
On Thursday, a remnant landmine leftover
from the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s
exploded in the Gilan-e-Gharb district of
Kermanshah province, injuring two people."
"Syria
A child was killed, and three others
were seriously injured in separate
incidents involving the explosion of
old landmines in the Aleppo countryside.
The child's death occurred in Abajah
village, while the injuries occurred in
Tel Tuwayhinah village near Khanaser city.
The injured children were
taken to the hospital."
"Turkey
On Friday, seven irregular migrants
drowned off the coast of KuÅadası,
Aydın, in western Türkiye along the
Aegean Sea, after their rubber boat
ignored a ""stop"" warning from the
Coast Guard Command and capsized,
causing them to fall into the water.
The Coast Guard rescued
32 other migrants."
"United States
A light plane crashed in Plainview while
approaching Plainview-Hale County Airport.
The pilot survived the crash, but the
airplane suffered significant damage."
"United States
A small plane crashed in Sarpy
County, Nebraska, with an 80-year-old
male pilot as the only occupant.
The pilot reported mechanical
issues before the incident.
Emergency services responded, and
the pilot was taken to the hospital
with non-life-threatening injuries.
The Federal Aviation Administration is
investigating the cause of the crash."
"United States
A single-engine plane crashed
near Thaden Field on Thursday
afternoon, injuring two men on board.
The plane, a Comanche 250,
experienced engine problems
while approaching the airport and
could not make it to the runway.
One man suffered minor injuries
and was taken to a local hospital.
The Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA) will investigate the scene
before removing the plane."
"Thanks for joining us for the January
18, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
As a reminder, complete reports with
casualty information, interactive web
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