February 19, 2025 25:12 E60

High-level diplomacy continues in Europe and the Middle East

Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 19, 2025.

Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and

our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.

We collected and mapped 54 events
on Tuesday, including negotiations

over Ukraine and Israel.

We have a lot to cover,
so let's get started.

Political Conflict

"Afghanistan

Taliban supreme leader Akhundzada
convened an emergency meeting with

governors from four southern provinces
(Kandahar, Zabul, Uruzgan, and

Helmand) to address security threats.

The meeting focused on preventing
ISIS attacks, securing Pakistan border

routes, and combating drug trafficking.

Officials discussed increasing community
engagement, investigating Taliban members'

potential involvement in the narcotics
trade, and monitoring NGO activities."

"Burundi

A significant refugee crisis is
unfolding as nearly 10,000 people from

the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
have fled to Burundi over three days due

to advancing Rwanda-backed M23 forces.

The rebels recently captured Bukavu, a
key city in South Kivu province, located

about 50km from the Burundian border.

Burundi, which has deployed over
10,000 troops to support the Congolese

army against M23, is working with
the UN refugee agency to process and

shelter the incoming refugees, who
are entering through both official

and unofficial border crossings.

The situation prompted Burundi to
temporarily close a major border

crossing to manage the refugee flow."

"Colombia

Colombia's ELN guerrilla group declared
a 72-hour ""armed strike"" in Choco,

forcing civilians to stay home and
halting transportation and services.

The group claims to expose alleged
government-military-mercenary collusion.

The government has suspended peace
talks with ELN due to the humanitarian

crisis, which includes forced recruitment
of minors and civilian deaths."

"Cook Islands

The Cook Islands has signed a strategic
partnership with China covering

deep-sea mining, education, and economic
cooperation, excluding security ties.

The deal sparked protests and concerns
both domestically and from New

Zealand, which has constitutional
ties with the Cook Islands.

While China offers a $4m grant and
opportunities in trade and infrastructure,

opposition parties worry about risks to
sovereignty and existing relationships.

PM Mark Brown insists the
partnership complements rather

than replaces traditional alliances
but faces a no-confidence vote."

"Democratic Republic of Congo

M23 rebels, backed by Rwanda,
have captured two major Congolese

cities - Bukavu and Goma.

UN officials report the rebels
have committed atrocities,

including killing children and
attacking humanitarian facilities.

The conflict has caused thousands
of deaths and massive displacement.

M23, the dominant group among many
fighting for control of Congo's mineral

wealth, claims to protect Tutsis
and Congolese of Rwandan origin.

Rwanda accuses Congo of
harboring genocide perpetrators.

The ongoing crisis has displaced over
6 million people, making it the world's

largest humanitarian emergency."

"Egypt

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah
el-Sissi was scheduled to visit Riyadh

on Thursday to discuss an Arab plan
for Gaza's reconstruction, which would

serve as an alternative to Trump's
US-controlled redevelopment proposal.

However, the summit has been
rescheduled to March 4, according

to Egypt's foreign ministry."

"France

European leaders met in Paris on
February 17, 2025, expressing willingness

to provide security guarantees to
Ukraine, though contingent on U.S.

participation.

The EU plans to approve 5
billion euros in additional aid.

While British PM Starmer suggested
potential peacekeeping forces following

a peace deal, German Chancellor Scholz
called such discussions premature.

Leaders emphasized that any peace
agreement must include Ukraine's consent

and warned against hasty ceasefires."

"Gaza Strip

Heavy equipment and mobile
homes have begun entering Gaza

through the Rafah crossing from
Egypt, according to Al-Ghad TV.

This development follows recent
tensions where Hamas had threatened

to stop releasing hostages unless
such construction equipment

was permitted to enter Gaza."

"Gaza Strip

According to a joint assessment by
the UN, EU, and World Bank, Gaza and

West Bank reconstruction following the
Israel-Hamas conflict will require $53.2

billion over ten years, with
$20 billion needed in the first

three years of recovery efforts."

"Israel

Israel's Prime Minister's Office has
confirmed that six living hostages

will be released on Saturday as
part of phase one of the Hamas deal,

following negotiations in Cairo.

Additionally, four bodies of
deceased hostages will be released

on Thursday, with Hamas required to
release four more bodies next week.

The hostages' families have been
notified, and Israeli officials are

characterizing the Cairo agreement
as ""an important achievement""

if successfully implemented."

"Israel

Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon
Sa'ar announced upcoming negotiations

for the second phase of the Gaza
ceasefire deal, which will focus on

exchanging remaining Israeli hostages
for Palestinian security prisoners.

The talks, originally scheduled for
February 3, will begin this week

following a security cabinet meeting.

Sa'ar emphasized Israel's demand for
complete demilitarization of Gaza and

rejected both Hamas and Palestinian
Authority control of the region."

"Lebanon

As today's US-brokered ceasefire
deadline arrives, Lebanon has declared

it will consider any remaining Israeli
military presence on its territory as

occupation, asserting its right to use
all means necessary to ensure withdrawal.

While Israel agreed to the
February 18 deadline, it plans to

maintain forces in five strategic
locations in southern Lebanon.

Following a meeting between Lebanon's
top leaders, officials announced the

army's readiness to assume border
control duties and their intention to

seek UN Security Council intervention
regarding Israeli violations and to

compel immediate Israeli withdrawal."

"Saudi Arabia

Secretary of State Rubio met with
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov

following a Trump-Putin call.

The meeting, held in Saudi Arabia,
resulted in three key agreements:

establishing bilateral diplomatic
consultations, appointing teams to

work on ending the Ukraine conflict,
and developing future cooperation on

geopolitical and economic matters.

The U.S.

team included National Security
Advisor Waltz and Ambassador Witkoff,

while Russia was represented by
Lavrov and Presidential Aide Ushakov.

While marking an important step
toward peace, both sides acknowledged

that more engagement would be
needed for lasting results."

"Syria

The Syrian Democratic Forces
announced key agreements with

stakeholders in northern and eastern
Syria aimed at enhancing stability.

Major points include integrating SDF
forces into the Syrian army, reactivating

civil institutions, removing foreign
fighters, increasing coordination with

Damascus, maintaining Syria's unity,
and facilitating refugee returns.

Implementation committees were
formed to execute these provisions.

While SDF commander Mazloum Abdi
affirmed ongoing efforts to serve

Syria's interests, the Syrian
government has not yet officially

confirmed these agreements."

"Turkey

President Zelenskyy, speaking at the
opening of Ukraine's new embassy in

Ankara, emphasized that Ukraine seeks
peace but will not compromise on its

territorial integrity and sovereignty.

He called for security guarantees from the
US, EU, TÃ¼rkiye, and European partners.

Zelenskyy firmly stated that
Ukraine will never recognize

Russian-occupied territories as part
of Russia and prefers to reclaim

these territories through diplomatic
means to protect Ukrainian lives."

Terrorism

"Guyana

Six Guyanese soldiers were injured
in an attack by armed men firing from

the Venezuelan side of the Cuyuni
River during a resupply mission.

The incident adds to existing tensions
between Guyana and Venezuela over the

disputed Essequibo region, which comprises
two-thirds of Guyana's territory."

"India

Security forces successfully neutralized
two pressure cooker IEDs in South Kashmir

- one in Shopian's Chitragam area and
another in Pulwama's Pinglish locality.

Joint police-army patrols detected
both devices and were safely destroyed

by bomb disposal squads, preventing
potential harm to civilians and

security personnel in the area."

"Kenya

Two al-Shabaab suspects were arrested
in Mandera East for plotting to

kidnap Chinese construction workers.

The main suspect, Isaac Abdi Mohamed,
entered Kenya from Somalia and

forged documents to appear Kenyan.

His accomplice, Noor Yacob Ali, was
to receive Sh100,000 for helping

with the kidnapping and Sh300,000
for transporting victims to Somalia."

"Pakistan

A terrorist attack in Shadipur,
Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, left one

policeman injured when militants
threw a hand grenade at a police van.

Security forces killed one militant
and made several arrests in response."

"Philippines

An armed ambush in Mamasapano,
Maguindanao del Sur, killed one

person and injured three others,
including a six-year-old child.

The incident occurred on Monday morning
when gunmen attacked the group, who were

traveling in a minivan and motorcycles.

The attackers fled on
motorcycles after the assault."

"Syria

SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) fighters
successfully thwarted an attack by two

ISIS terrorists near al-Hasakah in Syria.

The terrorists were killed after
they attempted to infiltrate an SDF

military position and opened fire."

"West Bank

According to Palestinian media, settler
extremists conducted an overnight attack

in Susya, near Hebron in the southern West
Bank, setting fire to multiple vehicles.

While video evidence shows at
least one burning vehicle, no

injuries have been reported."

Military Conflict

"Gaza Strip

The IDF reports firing warning shots
at Palestinian suspects who approached

troops in various areas of Gaza today,
with direct fire used against one suspect

in southern Gaza who ignored warnings.

Additionally, a drone strike was
conducted in central Gaza to prevent

unauthorized vehicle movement northward.

The military emphasizes that vehicles
must only use the Salah a-Din road, where

inspections are conducted, and warns
Gaza residents to follow instructions

and avoid approaching troops."

"India

Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged
fire across the Line of Control

(LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir's Poonch
sector on Sunday around 11 AM.

The incident began when Pakistani
forces initiated small arms fire on

an Indian post, prompting the Indian
Army to respond with retaliatory fire.

No Indian casualties were
reported in the exchange."

"Iraq

The Turkish Ministry of Defense reported
neutralizing two PKK members in the

Kurdistan Region during Operation
Claw-Lock and Kara in northern Iraq.

The PKK operates from the Qandil
Mountains and uses various locations

to launch attacks against Turkey."

"Lebanon

As the ceasefire deadline expires, the
IDF has withdrawn from most southern

Lebanese villages while maintaining
five strategic positions, according

to a Lebanese security source.

The Lebanese army is gradually
deploying to vacated areas, including

key border towns like Mais al-Jabal
and Blida, though explosives and

damaged roads hamper progress.

Local authorities are urging
displaced residents to await

Lebanese army deployment before
returning to ensure safety."

"Lebanon

Following the IDF withdrawal, the Lebanese
Armed Forces (LAF) deployed troops

overnight to multiple villages and towns
in southern Lebanon near the Israeli

border, including Aabbasiyyeh, Kafr Kila,
Bint Jbeil, and several other locations.

The deployment, coordinated with a US-led
ceasefire committee and UN observer

force UNIFIL, includes engineering
units conducting area surveys, opening

roads, and safely removing unexploded
ordnance left from the fighting."

"Pakistan

Pakistani security forces conducted
an intelligence-based operation in

South Waziristan District, resulting
in the elimination of 30 terrorists.

The operation took place in the
Sararogha area, and follow-up

operations are ongoing."

"Philippines

A Chinese Navy helicopter performed
dangerous maneuvers within 3

meters of a Philippine surveillance
flight carrying journalists over

the disputed Scarborough Shoal.

This incident is the latest in a
series of confrontations in the

South China Sea, following recent
clashes involving Australian

aircraft and Philippine vessels."

"Sudan

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has
allegedly killed over 200 civilians

in Sudan's White Nile state amid
an ongoing civil war with the

military that began in April 2023.

The conflict between army chief Gen
al-Burhan and RSF leader Hemedti

has displaced 12 million people."

"Sudan

The RSF attacked the Zamzam
displacement camp near El Fasher,

North Darfur, but were repelled
by SAF and Darfur Joint Forces.

The camp, housing one million
displaced people, has suffered severe

damage from recent RSF attacks.

Casualties from Monday's
attacks were not reported."

"Sudan

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
has made significant territorial

gains against the Rapid Support
Forces (RSF) in several key areas.

The SAF captured the Kafouri area
in Bahri city, which was the RSF's

last stronghold in the region and a
strategic location for artillery attacks.

Additionally, the army took control
of Al-Rahad city in North Kordofan

State, an important railway hub."

"Syria

The Turkish military conducted airstrikes
targeting positions in the towns of

Sarrin and Al-Sheiokh near Ain Al-Arab
in eastern Aleppo's countryside.

Turkish reconnaissance aircraft and
fighter jets maintained an active presence

in the area during the operation."

"Syria

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
conducted multiple attacks against

Turkish-backed National Army
factions in different locations.

In Aleppo countryside near Deir
Hafer, the attack resulted in two

militia deaths and one injury.

Additional SDF attacks occurred
at Syriatel Hill near Teshreen

dam and in Haj Hussein village,
though casualties were unconfirmed.

A separate attack in the Tel Tamr
area of western Al-Hasakah killed

one National Army militiaman."

"Taiwan

The Taiwanese Ministry of National
Defense reported monitoring

Chinese military activity near
Taiwan over a 24-hour period.

They detected eight military aircraft
(4 of which crossed the Taiwan

Strait median line), nine naval
vessels, and one official ship.

In response, Taiwan deployed
combat aircraft, naval vessels, and

missile defense systems to monitor
these activities, particularly in

Taiwan's southwestern air defense
identification zone (ADIZ)."

"Ukraine

Russian forces conducted attacks
in Ukraine's Donetsk region,

resulting in one civilian death
in Pokrovsk and three injuries.

Russians carried out two drone attacks
in Kostiantynivka, targeting rescue

workers delivering water and later
injuring three members of an evacuation

team, including two police officers and
a local military administration head."

"Ukraine

A Russian FPV drone attack in Kupiansk
resulted in three men being injured in the

village of Kutkivka, Kupiansk district.

The victims, aged 23, 48, and 50, suffered
shrapnel wounds and were hospitalized.

The attack also damaged private homes
and struck a truck in the village

of Prystin using a Molniya UAV,
causing the vehicle to catch fire."

"Ukraine

Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted
a major Russian drone attack, shooting

down 103 out of 176 Shahed-type
attack UAVs and decoy drones launched

from multiple locations, including
Russian territory and occupied Crimea.

The attack occurred between
February 17-18, 2025, affecting

multiple Ukrainian regions.

While Ukrainian defenses were largely
successful, some attacks got through,

notably in the Kirovohrad region, where
a drone strike on a residential building

injured a woman and her two children.

The defensive operation involved
anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic

warfare units, and mobile fire groups
across twelve Ukrainian regions."

"Ukraine

Russian strikes on Ukraine's Kherson
region on February 17 resulted

in eight injuries and widespread
damage across multiple settlements.

The attacks damaged residential
buildings (including an apartment

building and nine private homes),
a ""point of invincibility,""

an outbuilding, and vehicles.

Ukrainian air defense successfully
intercepted two Russian

Shahed drones overnight."

"Ukraine

Russian forces launched a massive
nighttime airstrike on Mylove village

in Ukraine's Kherson region, using nine
guided bombs that damaged around 50

homes, with three completely destroyed.

The attack also struck a school,
kindergarten, and store, though

no casualties were reported
in this specific incident."

"Ukraine

Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,170 Russian

soldiers over the past day.

Over 335 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."

"Ukraine

An 80-year-old man was killed when
Russian forces shelled Orikhiv in

Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, with
his body being discovered beneath

the ruins of his destroyed home.

Regional military administrator
Ivan Fedorov reported the incident

through a Telegram message."

"Ukraine

Russian shelling damaged a fire
station's building and equipment

in the Novhorod-Siverskyi
district in the Chernihiv region.

No casualties were reported,
and local police are assessing

the attack's aftermath."

Civil Unrest

"Turkey

Turkish authorities conducted a major
crackdown against the banned Kurdistan

Workers' Party (PKK), detaining 282
people across 51 provinces over five days.

The suspects were accused of
financing the PKK, recruiting

members, spreading propaganda, and
participating in violent demonstrations.

The operation, which resulted in the
seizure of weapons, including AK-47s,

comes amid potential peace talks
between Ankara and the Kurdish group."

"United States

On Presidents Day 2025, thousands of
Americans participated in nationwide

protests organized by the ""50501
Movement"" to demonstrate against

President Trump and Elon Musk's
actions in the federal government.

Protesters gathered at state
capitols and public spaces across the

country, expressing concerns about
mass firings of federal employees,

Musk's leadership of the Department
of Government Efficiency (DOGE),

healthcare coverage, and data privacy.

In Washington, D.C.,

demonstrators called on Congress
to take stronger action against

what they view as executive
overreach, with movement organizers

promising more protests to come."

Accidents

"Bolivia

A fatal bus accident in Yocalla,
Bolivia, resulted in at least 30

deaths when the vehicle plunged
into an 800-meter-deep ravine.

The crash occurred on a narrow
road between Potosi and Oruro,

with 15 people reportedly injured.

Police suspect speeding was the cause, as
the driver lost control of the vehicle.

Some of the injured passengers are in
serious condition at a local hospital."

"Canada

A Delta Flight 4819 from Minneapolis
crashed at Toronto Pearson International

Airport on February 17, 2025, when
the CRJ 900 aircraft flipped over and

caught fire on a snow-covered runway.

All 80 occupants (76 passengers
and four crew) survived, though

18 were hospitalized, including
three in critical condition.

The incident occurred during strong
winds and blowing snow, though

officials noted the runway was
dry with no crosswind conditions.

The Transportation Safety Board of
Canada is investigating the cause,

while the airport has partially resumed
operations after a temporary shutdown."

"India

A private bus accident in Punjab's
Faridkot district resulted in five

deaths and 26 injuries when the vehicle
fell into a drain from a 10-foot high

bridge on the Faridkot-Kotkapura road.

The incident occurred around 8 AM
while the bus was traveling from

Muktsar to Amritsar with 36 passengers.

While officials suggest the driver
lost control, witnesses claim the bus

collided with a truck before falling."

"Syria

One person died from a landmine
in Tartous, while another was

injured in Al-Sukhna, Homs.

In Deir Ezzor's Haribsha Desert, a
landmine killed one person and injured

three others during truffle hunting.

Additionally, a child died from
a hand grenade explosion in Himar

Al-Ali Town, western Deir Ezzor."

"United States

A freight train carrying printer paper
experienced a minor derailment in

Littleton, Massachusetts on Tuesday
morning, with three boxcars coming off

the tracks at the Gilson Road crossing.

No hazardous materials were involved
and no injuries were reported.

While the incident initially caused
road closures, the affected cars were

rerailed, operations were restored, and
the road reopened within a few hours.

The cause of the derailment
is still being investigated."

"United States

A train derailment occurred near
Bakersfield in Caliente, involving

15 Union Pacific rail cars.

The incident happened around 9 a.m.

on Tuesday, prompting emergency crews
to respond to the area of Caliente

Bodfish Road and West J Street.

Fortunately, no injuries were
reported, and no chemical spills or

leaks resulted from the derailment."

"United States

A freight train derailed near
Union Station on NJ Transit's

Raritan Valley Line at 6:50 AM
on Tuesday, February 18, 2025.

Approximately 20 cargo container cars
were affected, with some completely

derailed and one tipped over.

The incident disrupted service for
the line's 23,000 daily riders, though

limited service resumed by noon.

Recovery efforts are expected to be
complex, requiring crane equipment

to remove the derailed cars."

Other Events

"Iran

A British couple, Craig and
Lindsey Foreman, were arrested in

Iran on espionage charges while
on a worldwide motorbike tour.

Despite the UK Foreign Office's advice
against travel to Iran, the couple chose

to proceed with their five-day visit.

After visiting Tabriz, Tehran, and
Isfahan, they disappeared before

reaching their hotel in Kerman.

The charges are particularly
concerning as Iranian law lacks a clear

definition of espionage, though the
country has previously charged other

foreigners with similar accusations."

"Iran

The IRGC (Islamic Revolution Guards
Corps) Ground Force has initiated a

major military exercise called ""The
Great Prophet 19"" in the Shavariyeh

region of Khuzestan province.

The drill, which began on Monday, features
the deployment of domestically-produced

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