Europe continues discussing Ukraine's security guarantees
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for March 8, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
Friday, we mapped 61 events,
including the Italian prime minister
proposing NATO Article 5 protections
for Ukraine, so let's get started.
"Belgium
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni
has suggested extending the protection
of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty
to Ukraine as a security guarantee.
This would provide Ukraine with
stable and lasting security without
granting it full NATO membership.
Meloni believes that applying Article
5 would be more effective than sending
unidentified European troops to Ukraine."
"China
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated
that China will continue to retaliate
against the US for ""arbitrary tariffs""
imposed on China, Canada, and Mexico
over fentanyl smuggling accusations.
Wang argued that the US should
not expect to suppress China while
maintaining a good relationship with it.
He also emphasized the importance
of mutual trust and security in
international relations, citing the
Ukraine conflict as an example of how
security should be mutual and equal."
"France
French President Emmanuel Macron
and Russian President Vladimir Putin
engaged in a heated exchange over
Macron's proposal to extend France's
nuclear umbrella to European allies.
Putin called Macron's proposal a
""threat,"" while Macron branded
Putin an ""imperialist"" who
seeks to ""rewrite history."""
"Gaza Strip
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has
urged major powers to promote a ""lasting
ceasefire"" in Gaza, emphasizing
the need for increased humanitarian
assistance for the people affected."
"Iran
Iran's foreign ministry summoned the
British ambassador to Tehran over what
it considers ""baseless"" accusations
by UK officials, including placing
Iran on a foreign influence watchlist.
Iran protested the allegations, which it
claims contradict international law and
diplomatic norms, and warned that such
actions would deepen distrust among the
Iranian people towards British policies.
The British ambassador was instructed to
convey the message to his government."
"Philippines
The Philippines and Canada have
successfully concluded negotiations
for a security pact that will allow
for increased cooperation between their
defense and military establishments.
The deal, which will be the latest in
a series of security agreements for
the Philippines, aims to foster closer
collaboration and promote regional
security in the face of China's
actions in the South China Sea."
"Senegal
France has begun transferring two
military bases in Dakar, Senegal,
to Senegalese control as part of
its withdrawal from the country.
This move is in line with an
agreement to return all French
military sites by the end of 2025.
The handover is the first step in a
process that will affect around 660
local staff, including 162 directly
employed by the French military."
"South Korea
South Korea is criticizing Russia for
supporting North Korea's efforts to
enhance its military capabilities,
which Seoul sees as a threat to
regional peace and stability.
Russia's foreign ministry spokesperson,
Maria Zakharova, stated that North Korea's
measures are ""fully justified"" in
response to external security threats.
In contrast, South Korea believes
that North Korea's nuclear and missile
development, as well as provocations, are
the primary causes of regional tension."
"United States
The FBI announced on Thursday the
arrest of two active-duty U.S.
Army soldiers and one former soldier
for gathering and selling sensitive
military information to China.
Jian Zhao and Li Tian, both stationed
at Joint Base Lewis-McChord, along with
former soldier Ruoyu Duan, were indicted
by federal grand juries in Oregon.
The indictment also names
other unnamed individuals who
were involved in the scheme."
"United States
US President Donald Trump has questioned
the fairness of the decades-old security
treaty with Japan, stating that it
is non-reciprocal and that Japan
does not have to protect the US while
the US provides protection to Japan.
This comes despite previous statements
by Trump and other officials emphasizing
the importance of the US military
presence in Japan for maintaining
peace and prosperity in the region."
"United States
President Donald Trump threatened
to impose sanctions and tariffs
on Russia until a ceasefire and
peace deal is reached with Ukraine.
This comes after Russia launched a
major attack on Ukraine, deploying
261 missiles and drones that targeted
energy and gas infrastructure."
"Yemen
The leader of Yemen's Houthi rebel group,
Abdulmalik al-Houthi, has threatened to
resume naval operations against Israel
if Israel does not lift its blockade
of aid into Gaza within four days."
"India
On Friday, a Maoist improvised
explosive device (IED) planted by
Maoists detonated at an iron ore mine
in Chhattisgarh's Narayanpur district,
killing one laborer and injuring another.
The blast occurred around 10:45
AM in the Aamdai Ghati iron ore
mine, within the jurisdiction of
the Chhote Dongar police station."
"Myanmar
On Wednesday, the Myanmar National
Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)
allegedly opened fire on at least
40 protesters opposing its gold
mining operation in Kutkai Township,
northern Shan State, resulting in
the reported deaths of at least six
villagers and injuries to six others.
The MNDAA armed group had been
planning to mine in the Nam area."
"Pakistan
On Thursday, an IED blast on the Bannu
Link Road hit a police van, wounding
a policeman and damaging the vehicle."
"Syria
An ISIS cell attacked a vehicle
of the Internal Security Forces
in Muhaymidah town, Deir Ezzor,
leaving one member injured.
The attackers used light weapons, and the
injured member was taken to the hospital."
"Syria
The Syrian Democratic Forces, assisted
by international coalition aircraft,
conducted an airdrop in Al-Shuhayl town,
Deir Ezzor's eastern countryside, and
apprehended an individual suspected
of being affiliated with ISIS."
"Turkey
In a series of targeted operations
called Mace-48, 47 ISIS suspects were
detained in 22 cities across Turkey.
The suspects were arrested for
their involvement with the terrorist
group, including membership, online
propaganda, and financial support.
The operations were conducted in
multiple cities across the country."
"Turkey
An indictment has been accepted by the
Ä°stanbul 23rd High Criminal Court, seeking
prison sentences of up to 15 years for
10 opposition municipal officials from
the Republican People's Party (CHP).
The officials, including two deputy
mayors, are accused of membership in the
outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Among the officials are two
two deputy mayors from the
Kartal and AtaÅehir districts.
Police arrested the
individuals last month."
"Australia
A Chinese naval group led by the
Type 055 destroyer Zunyi is nearing
the completion of its unprecedented
circumnavigation of Australia.
The fleet's voyage included sailing
near a strategically sensitive defense
facility off Western Australia.
On Thursday morning, the Australian
Defence Force reported the
flotilla was 630 nautical miles
(1,166km) northwest of Perth.
This was the ninth official update since
the previous Tuesday, accompanied by
surveillance images taken on Monday.
Analysts suggest the warships may soon
transit through the Sunda Strait, marking
their return to the South China Sea."
"Gaza Strip
The IDF conducted a drone strike in
the northern Gaza Strip, targeting
individuals suspected of planting
a bomb near Israeli troops.
The strike resulted in two reported deaths
in Gaza City's Shejaiya neighborhood.
Israeli forces remain deployed
in the buffer zone along the
Gaza border, warning Palestinians
against approaching the area."
"Iraq
Despite a ceasefire declared by the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the
Turkish military conducted 14 air and
artillery strikes in Iraqi Kurdistan
over the past week, the American
organization CPT reported on Friday.
According to CPT's data, the
Turkish forces carried out
nine attacks in Duhok, three in
Al-Sulaymaniyah, and two in Erbil.
The strikes included six artillery
bombardments, five fighter jets
airstrikes, and three helicopter attacks.
PKK fighters responded
to the assaults twice.
The attacks did not result in any
reported civilian casualties."
"Lebanon
The IDF conducted airstrikes in
southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah
military sites that were storing
weapons and rocket launchers.
The military said the sites posed
a threat to Israel and constituted
a violation of understandings
between Israel and Lebanon."
"Myanmar
On Tuesday, a junta airstrike on the
village of Net Saung, west of Taungha
Township, killed six people, including
three women, one man, and two children.
Two other villagers
sustained serious injuries.
On Wednesday, junta fighter jets continued
flying over the area, prompting at
least 10,000 residents from Net Saung,
Inn Tae, Pu Det Sa Kone, Htan Kyin,
and Htan Pin Chang villages to flee."
"Myanmar
On Thursday, junta drone strikes
hit the village of U Gin, Kyaukpyu
township, resulting in the burning
of at least 200 homes in the village.
The strikes occurred during attacks
on the naval base in the area."
"Myanmar
As of Monday, recent attacks
by junta soldiers, drones, and
artillery burned down approximately
100 houses across four villages in
Kawkareik Township, Karen State.
The junta initiated the attacks after
the Karen National Liberation Army
(KNLA)-led resistance forces encircled
and assaulted junta troops stationed
at the Shwe Kyet Min monastery
compound near Tatanku Village on
the outskirts of Kawkareik Town.
At least 30 to 40 houses have been set
ablaze in Kawtnwe Village, with the
majority of the village now destroyed as
junta troops continue burning homes daily.
In Sinkone and Yankoke villages,
rubber plantations have been
set on fire, as well as homes.
The KNLA forces remain engaged
in surrounding and attacking
the Shwe Kyet Min compound."
"Myanmar
Myanmar junta forces attacked Myay Zon Taw
Village in Yesagyo Township, killing five
elderly civilians, including two women,
and burning down almost all 300 homes.
The village was targeted as part of
a scorched-earth raid on a resistance
stronghold area, with military units
also burning down two nearby villages."
"Nigeria
On Thursday, combined security
forces killed the notorious Lakurawa
terrorist group kingpin, Maigemu,
during an operation in the Arewa
Local Government area of Kebbi State."
"Philippines
Government troops, led by the 2nd
Infantry Division, clashed with alleged
New People's Army (NPA) rebels in
Barangay Panaytayan, Oriental Mindoro.
The 25-minute firefight resulted
in no casualties for the government
side, but authorities are still
verifying losses on the NPA's side.
The government recovered war
materials, including 14 bunkers,
an early warning device, and
various firearms and ammunition."
"Somalia
On Friday, Somalia's defense minister
confirmed that its Air Force conducted
airstrikes on Al-Shabab terrorist
strongholds in the Middle Shabelle Region.
The minister did not disclose any
casualties or damage from the airstrikes."
"Sudan
Between Wednesday and Thursday, Rapid
Support Forces (RSF) killed at least
23 civilians during attacks on the
villages in Al-Baqir and the Al-Jadeed
Al-Thawra region of Al-Jazira State.
The RSF also placed the town of
Habiba village under siege and
prevented residents from leaving.
Seven Habiba villagers were
killed in the fighting.
RSF forces also killed six people,
including a woman and a child in
Al-Jadeed Al-Thawra; eight were
killed, including a woman in Al-Jadeed
Al-Qahwa, and two died in Al-Farajin."
"Sudan
The Sudanese military has made significant
advances in the capital, Khartoum,
clearing nearly all of East Nile locality
of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) presence.
The army's allied Sudan Shield Force,
led by Abu Aqla Keikel, has also
taken complete control of Hillat
Koko and secured the northeastern
entrance of Al Manshia Bridge."
"Sudan
A United Nations helicopter came
under fire in Nasir, Upper Nile State,
resulting in the death of a crew
member and injuries to two others.
The incident occurred during an evacuation
attempt requested by all parties to
de-escalate tensions and prevent violence.
The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)
has condemned the attack and called for
an investigation, urging all parties
to refrain from further violence and
adhere to the ceasefire agreement."
"Syria
A drone attack by the SDF on a
National Army vehicle in Aloush
village resulted in the death of
one member and injuries to others.
In response, Turkish forces fired heavy
artillery shells near the Teshreen Dam,
where a civilian convoy had arrived.
No casualties were reported
from these incidents.
Additionally, Turkish forces fired
artillery shells on Sarrin town, but
again, no casualties were reported."
"Syria
A militiaman from the Turkish-backed
National Army was killed during a
failed attempt to infiltrate the Deir
Hafer frontline in eastern Aleppo.
Clashes broke out between the factions
and the Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF) before the attackers retreated."
"Syria
There are intense military
clashes in Latakia and Tartus
cities, with reinforcements
deployed from Homs and Idlib.
A large-scale security campaign is
targeting former regime army members,
resulting in clashes with local gunmen.
The situation has led to significant
casualties, with 71 people killed
in attacks and battles between
military forces and local gunmen."
"Syria
The Kurdish-led SDF battled ISIS in
Deir Ezzor, backed by US air support.
Casualty figures were not
reported in the fighting."
"Taiwan
On Friday, Taiwan detected 11
Chinese balloons near its country.
This is one of the highest-recorded
numbers of balloons ever.
The balloons, five Chinese
aircraft, and six warships were
spotted over the past day."
"Ukraine
On March 7, Russian forces launched
a devastating attack on the Odesa
region's energy infrastructure,
marking the sixth such attack in 2.5
weeks.
The DTEK Group reported that repair
teams are working to restore damaged
equipment and maintain the power supply.
Additionally, facilities of the Naftogaz
Group and a gas transmission system in
the Ternopil region were also damaged."
"Ukraine
On March 7, a Russian missile
attack on Kharkiv injured eight
people, with two hospitalized.
The attack damaged critical
infrastructure, residential
buildings, and private homes,
causing fires and disrupting
heating services for 670 households.
The situation is ongoing, with
restoration efforts in progress."
"Ukraine
Russian forces have launched a missile
attack on a critical industrial facility
in the Ternopil region of Ukraine.
The attack occurred on the night
of March 7, with air defense forces
managing to shoot down one missile.
Fortunately, there were no
reported casualties, but emergency
services are working to mitigate
disruptions to the gas supply."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,150 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Over 200 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Russian attacks on the Kherson region
resulted in the deaths of two people.
Kherson Regional Governor Oleksandr
Prokudin reported that multiple
settlements came under Russian fire
and airstrikes, causing damage to 16
private houses, an apartment building,
a cell tower, and a civilian vehicle."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian fighters from the 12th
Azov Special Purpose Brigade have
successfully cleared a residential
area near Toretsk, eliminating nearly
50 Russian troops and capturing a
full platoon of Russian soldiers.
The operation also allowed for the
evacuation of several dozen civilians
and their pets from the combat zone."
"Ukraine
Russian forces attacked Sloviansk
overnight on March 7, using guided
aerial bombs that injured seven
people, including two children.
The attack damaged or destroyed
around 30 houses and five cars."
"Ukraine
A 56-year-old man suffered a traumatic
amputation of his right lower
leg and is in critical condition
after a Russian attack in Kherson.
A 48-year-old woman was also
injured in the attack, suffering a
concussion and blast injury, but her
condition is reported to be mild.
Russian forces have been shelling
residential areas in Kherson, causing
damage to apartment buildings."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched over 20 attacks on
the Nikopol district in the Dnipropetrovsk
region, causing destruction and damage to
infrastructure, an industrial facility,
an administrative building, a college,
a residential building, and a truck.
The attacks primarily used kamikaze
drones, artillery, and explosives
from UAVs, with emergency services
managing to extinguish a fire
that broke out as a result."
"Western Sahara
On Sunday, units of the Sahrawi People's
Liberation Army reportedly carried out
artillery strikes on Moroccan forces
stationed in the Mahbes Sector of
Western Sahara, resulting in significant
losses of Moroccan troops and equipment.
Furthermore, the SPLA claimed to
have conducted bombardments on
Wednesday on a Moroccan Army brigade
headquarters in the town of Mahbes."
"Bangladesh
On Friday, hundreds of activists
from the banned militant group
Hizb-ut-Tahrir gathered for a 'March
for Khilafat' procession near the Baitul
Mukarram Mosque in Dhaka after Friday
prayers, defying police barricades.
The activists were chanting ""Khilafat,
Khilafat"" and demanding the
replacement of Bangladesh's secular
democracy with an Islamic caliphate.
Police struggled to control the crowd
and resorted to using tear gas and sound
grenades to disperse the protesters."
"Syria
Thousands of people gathered in
various Syrian provinces, including
Damascus and Idlib, to protest an
attack on security forces in Latakia.
The protesters, carrying Syrian flags,
condemned the assault by forces loyal
to the ousted Bashar Assad regime and
expressed their opposition to sectarianism
and the division of the country."
"Syria
A security campaign has been launched
by the Internal Security Forces in
Al-Nuqayrah village, Homs, resulting in
the arrest of five individuals and the
confiscation of weapons and machine guns.
The campaign appears to be voluntary,
with residents handing over
their arms to security services.
The arrested individuals are
suspected of arming people in the
area to protect against potential
regime-affiliated attacks."
"France
A World War II bomb has been discovered
on the tracks leading to France's busiest
train terminal, Gare du Nord, in Paris.
The unexploded bomb was found during
maintenance work and has halted all
traffic to the station, which serves
approximately 700,000 people daily.
Paris police are working
to disable the device."
"India
A Jaguar aircraft of the Indian Air Force
(IAF) crashed in the Panchkula district
after taking off from Ambala Air Base.
The pilot ejected safely.
According to the IAF, the crash
occurred during a routine training
sortie due to a system malfunction.
An inquiry has been ordered to
investigate the cause of the accident."
"South Korea
On Friday, South Korea announced
that 15 civilians and 14 soldiers
were injured after fighter jets
accidentally dropped bombs on the
village of Pocheon on Thursday."
"Syria
Three separate landmine explosions in
Syria have resulted in the deaths of three
civilians and the injury of one person.
The incidents occurred in the Manbij
countryside, Afrin countryside,
and Deir Ezzor western countryside,
all in areas controlled by
various factions or governments."
"United States
A massive pipeline explosion and tank
battery fire occurred near Highway 285 and
County Road 436 in Reeves County, Texas,
on March 5 at approximately 11:30 p.m.
The fire is still burning, and authorities
have shut off the pipeline, but 2.5
miles of pipe need to burn off.
The cause of the explosion is unknown,
and authorities are urging oil companies
to inventory their trucks and employees
to account for any missing personnel."
"United States
A single-engine Cirrus SR22 plane crashed
at Grand Strand Airport in North Myrtle
Beach on Thursday, injuring the pilot.
The pilot was the only person
on board and was evaluated by
paramedics for minor injuries.
The Federal Aviation Administration
is investigating the incident."
"United States
A small plane crashed and
burst into flames in Pearland,
Texas, on Thursday afternoon.
Fortunately, the two people on
board walked away without injuries.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
will investigate the cause of the crash."
"Yemen
According to the International
Organization for Migration, four
migrant boats capsized in waters
off Yemen and Djibouti, resulting in
two deaths and 186 people missing.
In Yemen, two boats capsized, leaving
181 people and five Yemeni crew
members missing, while in Djibouti,
two bodies were recovered, and
all others on board were rescued."
"Guam
Two U.S.
Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft from Patrol
Squadron (VP) 16 and VP 47, operating
under Commander, Task Force (CTF) 72,
joined maritime patrol and reconnaissance
communities from the Royal Australian
Air Force (RAAF), Indian Navy (IN),
Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
(JMSDF), and the Republic of Korea
Navy (ROKN) for Exercise Sea Dragon 25.
During the exercise, pilots and aircrew
from the participating countries
will coordinate to develop plans and
discuss tactics that incorporate their
respective capabilities and equipment
for anti-submarine warfare (ASW).
The exercise will culminate in a
final battle problem near Guam, where
participants will track a live U.S.
Navy submarine."
"South Korea
A South Korean court has ordered
the release of impeached President
Yoon Suk Yeol from jail, allowing
him to stand trial for rebellion
charges without physical detention.
The decision comes after Yoon's
lawyers argued that the investigative
agency lacked legal authority
to probe rebellion charges.
The Constitutional Court is expected
to rule soon on whether to formally
remove Yoon from office or reinstate
him, which could lead to a national
election to choose his successor."
Thanks for joining us for the March
8, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
As a reminder, complete reports with
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