Displaced Palestinians flow into northern Gaza
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for January 28, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
We collected 57 events on Monday,
including M23's taking of Goma, and
Palestinians returning to the northern
Gaza Strip, so let's get started.
"Terrorism
"Afghanistan
On Monday, Melanie Joly, the Canadian
Minister of Foreign Affairs, announced
the release of David Lavery, a
Canadian veteran, from a Taliban
prison after two months of captivity.
Lavery was released and reunited
with his family in Qatar.
Lavery was arrested on November 17,
2024, while entering Kabul airport."
"Afghanistan
On Sunday, news sources reported that
the Taliban arrested eight individuals
on charges of collaborating with
armed insurgent groups across various
provinces, including Kabul and Parwan.
After their arrests, the detainees
were tortured and killed."
"Indonesia
On Saturday, two armed pirates
boarded a bulker ship transiting
the Philipp Channel northwest of
Kapalayernih in the Singapore Strait.
No injuries or stolen
items were reported."
"Israel
The police and Shin Bet security service
have arrested two IDF reservists for
alleged espionage on behalf of Iran.
The primary suspect, Yuri
Eliasfov, passed along classified
material to his Iranian handler.
He recruited his friend, Georgi
Andreyev, into the scheme.
Both suspects spray-painted graffiti
and hung banners in Tel Aviv.
They are accused of security offenses
and an indictment is expected soon."
"Nigeria
Gunmen attacked the Chikakore community in
Kubwa, Abuja, on Sunday and abducted five
people, including three family members,
a visitor, as well as another neighbor.
Another woman was severely
injured in the attack."
"Philippines
On Monday, military authorities
reported that between last Friday
and Sunday, a series of clashes with
Dawlah Islamiya-Maute Group rebels
resulted in the death of a soldier
and a militant and the wounding of
two other soldiers in the village of
Kalanganan, Piagapo, Lanao del Sur.
Troops recovered abandoned war
materials, including an M-16 rifle,
an M-14 rifle, rifle grenades, an
Improvised Explosive Device circuit
indicator, assorted magazines, and
ammunition after the encounters."
"Somalia
Puntland forces arrested eight people,
including six foreign nationals, for
allegedly manufacturing bombs for ISIS
group terrorists in the city of Bosaso.
Puntland forces stated the individuals
were linked to a terrorist killed while
planting an IED in the area on Saturday.
Furthermore, authorities also
apprehended approximately 100 individuals
currently detained at multiple
police stations throughout Bosaso.
Ongoing investigations are
underway to ascertain any
connections these detainees may ha"
"Syria
Local gunmen arrested an
ISIS commander named Atta
Al-Hariri on a highway in Daraa.
He was found transporting many weapons in
coordination with another group leader.
The car he was traveling in was registered
in the name of an ISIS member's mother."
Military Conflict
"Democratic Republic of Congo
On Monday, hundreds of UN personnel
and civilians fled from the eastern
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)
to neighboring Rwanda as M23 rebels
seized the key Congolese city of Goma.
Dozens of Congolese troops
also ""surrendered"" to Rwandan
security forces during this time.
Meanwhile, at least 10 prisoners were
killed while attempting to escape
from Goma's Munzene central prison
by setting a fire, according to a
report from the UN-backed Radio Okapi.
The radio station also reported that
approximately 4,400 inmates escaped
the prison on Monday morning."
"Iraq
On Monday, a Turkish artillery
strike in the Shahi area of the
Dinarta sub-district of Dukoh
province killed a man and his wife."
"Iraq
On Monday, a Turkish drone strike
targeted a vehicle in the village of
Kardajan in the Raparin Independent
Administration of northern Iraq.
The strike resulted in the
death of two men and two women.
Another person riding a motorcycle
nearby was injured by shrapnel."
"Lebanon
Firing by Israeli troops killed two
people and wounded 17 in the second
day of protests in southern Lebanon.
The shooting occurred as residents
displaced by the war between
Israel and Hezbollah tried
to return to their villages.
The protests began after Israeli
troops opened fire on protesters who
breached roadblocks along the border.
The ceasefire deadline for Israeli
forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon
has been extended to February 18."
"Myanmar
On Saturday, junta forces targeted
a district hospital in the Taâang
National Liberation Army-controlled
town of Kyaukme Township.
The attack killed three people, including
two female public health workers,
and wounded at least 20 others."
"Myanmar
On Sunday, junta forces conducted
airstrikes and helicopter gunship
strafing on the village of Singup,
Myingyaing Township, killing 17
civilians and wounding several others.
A few days earlier, pro-junta
Channels claimed that insurgent
groups were active near the village."
"Somalia
The Somalia Federal Government launched
a campaign to target the terrorist group
Al-Shabaab in several regions of the
country, including the Hiran region,
where the group has already established
control over parts of the region."
"Syria
A six-month-old child and a 12-year-old
girl were killed in an attack by
Turkish forces in Al-Jammas Village.
The attack also injured
a child and a young man."
"Syria
Ten militiamen, including a commander
of the Jund Al-Haramayn faction, were
killed, and ten others were injured
in an attack by SDF on gatherings
of factions in Khoudi Hill and Um
Al-Rous village on the frontline of
Qarquzaq frontline in eastern Aleppo.
The attack also resulted in
the destruction of several
vehicles of the factions.
Factions of the Turkish-backed
National Army retaliated by attacking
several SDF positions on the Deir
Hafer frontline, using drones,
rockets, and mortars, causing m"
"Syria
A member of Turkish forces was
killed in an attack by the SDF
on a Turkish base in Tel Mohamed.
Earlier, four members of Turkish
forces were injured in a similar
attack on the same base."
"Syria
The Turkish Ministry of Defense
announced the neutralization of
four PKK members in northern Syria.
The location of the
strike was not reported."
"Taiwan
Taiwan tracked five Chinese naval
vessels and four military aircraft
around its country between 6 a.m.
on Sunday and 6 a.m.
on Monday.
Four aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait
median line in the nationâs northern
Air Defense Identification Zone."
"Ukraine
Russian troops killed one person and
injured four others in the Donetsk
region, according to the head of the
Donetsk Regional State Administration."
"Ukraine
At night, a nine-story residential
building in Dnipro was hit
by a Russian attack drone.
The roof and technical floor
were partially destroyed, but
fortunately, there were no casualties.
Three high-rise buildings were
damaged by the drone attack,
with one building experiencing a
fire that rescuers extinguished."
"Ukraine
At night in the Khmelnytsky
region, air defense shot down seven
Russian drones of the Shahed type.
The attack damaged a house, specifically
the windows and facade of the building.
No injuries or deaths were reported.
Ukrainian Defense Forces also
shot down 57 Russian Shahed attack
UAVs and other types of drones,
with 39 Russian imitators lost."
"Ukraine
The Ukrainian Defense Forces shot down
57 Russian Shahed attack UAVs and other
types of drones, and another 39 Russian
decoy drones disappeared from the radar.
The attack occurred in multiple
regions, causing damage to
infrastructure facilities, apartment
buildings, and private homes.
No casualties were reported, and
the injured were being treated.
Russian troops also attacked
critical infrastructure
facilities in the Ivano-Frankivsk
region with attack drones."
"Ukraine
Russian forces carried out 263 strikes on
11 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region.
114 drones and 145 artillery
strikes were used in the attacks.
There were 18 reports of damage to
private homes and apartments, but no
civilian casualties were reported."
"Ukraine
Russian troops shelled Nikopol,
Dnipro region, injuring five people.
The attack caused a fire at an
industrial enterprise, which
was quickly extinguished."
"Ukraine
Near Vovchansk, Ukrainian
soldiers successfully repelled
an assault by the Russian army.
The attack involved approximately
10 pieces of equipment and infantry.
The Ukrainian military prevented the
Russians from capturing any land.
In a separate incident, drone operators
destroyed Russian tanks, vehicles, and
infrastructure in the Donetsk region."
"Ukraine
On Monday afternoon, Russian troops
fired on Kindrashivka, Kupiansk
district, injuring a 61-year-old woman.
The woman's condition is moderate,
and she has been hospitalized."
"Ukraine
The Russians attempted to storm
Ukrainian positions in Vovchansk and
break through the defense lines in
the Kramatorsk and Toretsk sectors.
Ukrainian positions were not lost in
the Lyman sector, but the Russians
attacked multiple settlements.
Heavy fighting is ongoing in the
Pokrovsk sector, with Ukrainian
soldiers holding the line and
destroying the Russian forces."
"Ukraine
In Kupiansk, Kharkiv region, 13
private houses and a power line
were damaged by Russian shelling.
An 86-year-old woman was injured.
In Mala Danylivka, a Kub UAV
damaged an apartment building.
Ukrainian troops were attacked
four times near Vovchansk.
The Defense Forces repelled 11 Russian
attacks in the Kupiansk sector.
Firefighting and rubble removal
operations in Kupiansk were suspended
due to constant Russian shelling."
"Ukraine
Russian troops attacked Stepnohirsk
in the Zaporizhzhia region using
guided aerial bombs, resulting
in four people being injured.
Ivan Fedorov, the head of the Zaporizhzhia
Regional Military Administration,
reported this on Telegram."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,430 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Over 165 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces have been withdrawn
from the southern part of Velyka
Novosilka to prevent encirclement.
Russian forces have entered a significant
portion of the settlement, but
Ukrainians are maintaining defensive
lines to prevent further advancement.
Intense fighting continues in the
area, with the Russians attempting
to assault positions in Vovchansk
and break through defenses in the
Kramatorsk and Toretsk sectors."
"Ukraine
Russian troops attacked a tractor
in Kherson with a UAV, resulting
in the death of a 44-year-old man.
They also targeted an educational
institution in the Dniprovskyi
district of Kherson with a drone,
injuring a 38-year-old man.
The Russian forces have been launching
attacks in the region, causing damage."
"West Bank
The IDF conducted a strike in the
Tulkarem area of the West Bank in
collaboration with the Shin Bet.
Casualty information was not
available after the strike."
"West Bank
The Palestinian Authority health
ministry reported two deaths and
three injuries in an IDF drone strike
near Tulkarem in the West Bank.
The IDF will release more information
about the strike later today."
Political Conflict
"Afghanistan
On Monday, the Taliban
ambassador to Qatar warned U.S.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio against
making threats after saying he would
place bounties on Afghanistanâs rulers
for their continued detention of U.S.
nationals.
The ambassador stated it was the policy
of the Afghan government to resolve
issues peacefully through dialogue."
"Colombia
On Sunday, the White House announced that
Colombia had agreed to accept flights of
deported migrants from the United States.
This announcement came just hours after
President Donald Trump threatened to
impose steep import tariffs and other
sanctions against the long-standing U.S.
ally."
"Gaza Strip
The Hamas-run interior ministry in Gaza
confirmed that displaced Palestinians
are returning to northern Gaza
following negotiations with Israel.
The passage is taking place along
the Al-Rashid Road via the Netzarim
checkpoint towards Gaza City and the
northern part of the Gaza Strip."
"Gaza Strip
Hamas will release Arbel Yehoud
and two other hostages before
Friday, in addition to three
hostages being set free on Saturday.
This follows negotiations with Israel
and also allows displaced residents
of northern Gaza to return home
this morning, starting at 7 a.m."
"Iraq
On Monday, the Iraqi group Harakat Ansar
Allah al-Awfiya (HAAA) refused again to
disarm or dissolve, restating its stance
to resist US forces in the country.
A senior member of the group stated,
""Disarmament is unrealistic as
long as US forces remain in Iraq.""
The spokesperson emphasized the
group's objective to oppose the
""occupying"" forces and disclosed that
they closely track the negotiations
between Baghdad and Washington
regarding troop withdrawal schedules."
"Mali
The withdrawal of Mali, Niger, and
Burkina Faso from the Economic Community
of West African States (ECOWAS) will
take effect on Wednesday, following
a year of political tensions that
have fractured the region and left
the bloc's future in uncertainty.
All three countries have ignored
ECOWAS's call to extend the six-month
withdrawal period to find a solution.
Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have
now united in a confederation called
the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
The three countries' military
regimes accuse ECOWAS of imposing
""inhuman, illegal and illegitimate""
sanctions against them after the
coups that brought them to power.
They also believe that the
ECOWAS has not helped them enough
to fight jihadist violence."
"Philippines
Last Friday, January 24, 87 New
Peopleâs Army (NPA) insurgents
surrendered to government forces
in San Fernando, Bukidnon.
The rebels turned in
their firearms and IEDs."
"Somalia
Somalia and Egypt have agreed to
cooperate in the fight against terrorism.
The agreement came during final
technical discussions on the African
nationsâ participation in a new African
Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia.
The African Union Support and
Stabilisation Mission in Somalia
(AUSSOM) started its five-year
tenure in early January.
Somaliaâs Defense Ministry stated that the
Federal Government of Somalia recognizes
the role Egypt can play in eliminating
al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-affiliated"
"Sweden
Swedish authorities seized the
Maltese-flagged ship The Vezhen,
suspected of damaging a data cable
running under the Baltic Sea to Latvia.
The ship is now anchored outside
the Swedish port of Karlskrona.
Prosecutors stated that an initial
investigation pointed to sabotage,
prompting an inquiry involving Sweden's
police, military, and coast guard.
On Sunday, Latvia's military reported
that three ships were seen in the
area where the damage occurred.
However, on Monday,
Bulgarian shipping company"
Civil Unrest
"Belgium
Thousands of protesters marched
in Brussels, calling for a
permanent ceasefire in Gaza
and sanctions against Israel.
They demanded protection for Palestinians,
the release of political detainees,
and access to international aid.
Organizers also urged a military embargo
against Israel, support for the ICJ case
on Israel's conduct, and the suspension
of the EU's Association Agreement."
"Iran
On Sunday, Iranian citizens
protested nationwide as retirees and
defrauded citizens voiced grievances
against economic mismanagement
and government corruption.
The protests occurred in Tehran,
Damghan, Isfahan, Ahvaz, and Gilan."
"Pakistan
On Sunday, tribesmen in Azam Warsak,
South Waziristan, protested in front of
a police station after a mortar shell
explosion resulted in the death of a child
and injuries to three others on Saturday."
"Serbia
Students in Belgrade, supported by
professors, teachers, and members of
the public, initiated a 24-hour blockade
of the Autokomanda highway interchange.
The blockade was backed by farmers on
tractors and bikers who provided security.
The protesters are demanding
accountability from President Aleksandar
Vucic's government for a fatal
incident at Novi Sad railway station."
Weapons
"Nigeria
On Monday, police thwarted a planned
terrorist attack and recovered IEDS and
heavy weapons during an operation in Kano.
A Chadian national was behind
the planned attack but escaped
to Cameroon before the operation.
Police arrested another individual who
gave the terrorist shelter in Kano."
Accidents
"Afghanistan
On Sunday, a remnant rocket shell
blast killed a child and injured five
others while they were playing with
it in the Gol Ghundi area of Zazi
Aryub district in Paktia province."
"Nigeria
The police are investigating an explosion
at a mining site in Niger State, Nigeria.
The explosion, caused by suspected
dynamite stored in a residential
area, resulted in the death of one
person and injuries to six others.
The person responsible for storing the
dynamite, Yushau, is currently at large.
The Commissioner of Police has ordered
an investigation into the incident and
dispatched a unit to assess the scene."
"Pakistan
Sunday night, an LPG (liquefied
petroleum gas) tanker explosion occurred
in Multan, Pakistan, resulting in
at least six deaths and 38 injuries.
The explosion also resulted in the
collapse of several houses in the area.
An investigation of the
blast was underway."
"Syria
A child and a young man died in
separate incidents involving hand
grenade explosions in Deir Ezzor City
and Al-Saqilbiya City, respectively.
Another child was injured
in the Deir Ezzor incident.
The injured child and the deceased were
taken to a hospital in Al-Hasakah City."
"Syria
Different areas of Syria have experienced
a series of landmine explosions
resulting in casualties and injuries.
One person died while driving a
motorbike in Jabal Al-Shomariya,
eastern Homs countryside.
Another person was injured in Al-Kharita
Town, western Deir Ezzor countryside,
and a child was injured in Nahta
Town, eastern Daraa countryside.
Additionally, two civilians were injured,
and ten sheep died in the Al-Andarin
area, eastern Hama countryside."
"United States
A crash between a vehicle and a Green
Line train occurred at the intersection of
University Avenue and Lexington Parkway.
The driver of the vehicle made
an illegal left turn in front of
the train, resulting in injuries
that were not life-threatening.
The light rail went off the tracks,
causing service to be temporarily
replaced by buses between Western
and Snelling Avenue stations.
Service was restored around 9:30 p.m."
"United States
On Monday morning, eight train cars
derailed at the Portsmouth rail yard.
Three of the cars overturned.
Authorities stated the derailment
was likely caused by the rails
breaking due to freezing and thawing."
"Thanks for joining us for the January
28, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
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