Chinese anger grows over the removal of a key phrase on a US website
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 18, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
We collected and mapped 56 events
on Monday, including Chinese anger
over the removal of a key phrase on
the US State Department website, and
the evolving situation surrounding
negotiations over the Ukraine war.
We have a lot to cover,
so let's get started.
Political Conflict
"China
The US State Department removed ""we
do not support Taiwan independence""
from its Taiwan relations fact
sheet, sparking anger from China.
While the US maintains its ""One China""
policy, recognizing China over Taiwan, the
updated fact sheet now includes support
for Taiwan's international organization
membership ""where applicable.""
China condemned the change as sending
""wrong signals"" to independence
advocates and demanded correction.
Taiwan's Foreign Minister welcomed
the ""Taiwan-friendly"" revisions.
The situation highlights ongoing
tensions over Taiwan's status, which
China claims as a breakaway province,
while many Taiwanese prefer maintaining
the current ambiguous status quo."
"Gaza Strip
The schedule for the remaining hostage
releases in the first phase of the
ceasefire deal with Hamas includes:
four bodies on February 20, three living
hostages on February 22, four more bodies
on February 27, and the final three
living hostages (including long-held
captives Hisham al-Sayed and Avera
Mengistu) between February 22 and March 2.
In exchange, Israel will release all
women and children detained from Gaza
since October 7, though reports indicate
these detainees were not involved in the
October 7 attack or subsequent fighting."
"Lebanon
The IDF has announced it will
maintain troops at five strategic
positions in southern Lebanon
after tomorrow's withdrawal
deadline, with US authorization.
These positions are located near
various Israeli border towns but
outside Lebanese populated areas.
The IDF will withdraw from all
Lebanese border villages by 10 a.m.
tomorrow.
The military has enhanced
its border defenses with new
posts, improved surveillance,
and increased troop presence.
While the IDF claims to have cleared the
border area of Hezbollah infrastructure,
they will continue enforcing the ceasefire
agreement and responding to threats.
If the ceasefire holds, displaced
Israeli residents can return to
northern Israel starting March 2."
"Saudi Arabia
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
is meeting with Saudi Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh as
part of his first Middle East tour.
The meeting is expected to address
President Trump's controversial
plan regarding Gaza Strip control
and Palestinian relocation."
"South Sudan
Security forces in South Sudan's
Unity State blocked the opposition
SPLM-IO from launching its county
secretariat in Rubkona on Saturday.
Multiple security agencies prevented
supporters from accessing the
venue under orders from Unity State
Governor Riek Bim, according to
SPLM-IO spokesman Dhoal Koryom.
The opposition claims this violates the
peace agreement, as they had properly
notified the governor beforehand.
This incident follows similar
disruptions of opposition events
elsewhere in the country, including
Northern Bahr el Ghazal state."
"Ukraine
US envoy Keith Kellogg is heading to
Kyiv for talks with President Zelenskyy
following US-Russia negotiations in Saudi
Arabia initiated by President Trump.
Kellogg emphasized that while the
US is working to facilitate peace
negotiations, any final decision would be
Ukraine's to make as a sovereign nation.
He suggested that European allies
would have input but not direct
participation in the talks.
Kellogg believes both Russia and
Ukraine may be ready to end the
conflict, noting that neither side"
"Ukraine
President Zelenskyy rejected a U.S.
proposal for 50% ownership of
Ukraine's rare earth minerals as
repayment for wartime support, citing
inadequate security guarantees.
While Trump claimed Ukraine agreed to
provide $500B worth of minerals, and U.S.
officials offered potential troop
deployment to guard the resources
post-war, Zelenskyy declined to sign.
Ukraine has significant titanium
and iron ore reserves, though
many are under Russian control.
Despite Zelenskyy's previous
support for resource exchange in his
""Victory Plan"" and acknowledgment
of the importance of U.S.
aid, the current deal remains unsigned."
"United Kingdom
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged
to send British peacekeeping troops
to Ukraine if needed while urging
European nations to take greater
responsibility for their defense
following US President Trump's demands.
Starmer will join other European
leaders in Paris for urgent talks
on Ukraine's security, including
discussions about troop deployments,
weapons supply, and security guarantees.
This comes after Trump announced
negotiations with Putin to end the
war, raising concerns about Europe
being sidelined in peace talks.
Starmer emphasized the UK's role
as a bridge between Europe and the
US while supporting Ukraine's NATO
membership path and facing pressure to
increase the UK's defense spending."
Military Conflict
"Iraq
Turkish defense officials announced
the neutralization of three
PKK militants - two in northern
Iraq and one in northern Syria.
The locations of the
operations were not reported."
"Lebanon
A Hamas official, identified as
Mohammed Shahin, was killed in an
Israeli drone strike in Sidon, Lebanon.
According to an Israeli official, Shahin
was targeted because he was allegedly
planning an attack against Israelis.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
has not yet provided an official
statement about the strike."
"Myanmar
The Arakan Army (AA) launched
a major offensive against
multiple Myanmar military (junta)
installations in Sittwe, Arakan State.
Using captured howitzers and heavy
artillery, the AA targeted at least
seven strategic locations, including
the Regional Operation Command,
Naval Headquarters, and various
military bases and checkpoints.
The attack began around 11:00 am
on February 17, resulting in the
destruction of several military
checkpoints and causing casualties.
The junta forces have responded
by shelling suspected AA
positions in the area."
"Nigeria
A military airstrike in the Yauni
community, Katsina State, killed six
members of a family and injured one woman.
The incident occurred following
a confrontation between security
forces and bandits who had planned
to attack voters during a local
government election in Zakka village.
The fighter jet, reportedly
arriving as reinforcement,
mistakenly bombed the civilian area.
This incident has renewed concerns
about civilian casualties in military
operations, particularly as this is
not the first accidental airstrike
affecting Katsina residents."
"Nigeria
Combined security operatives in
Nigeria killed five suspected members
of the Eastern Security Network
(ESN), IPOB's militant wing, during
separate operations in Imo State.
The raids resulted in the recovery
of multiple weapons, including
AK-47 rifles and pump-action guns."
"Russia
Ukrainian officials confirmed drone
attacks on two key oil facilities in
Russia's Krasnodar region on February 17.
The Ilsky oil refinery,
which processes 6.6
million tonnes of oil annually
and supplies fuel for Russian
military equipment, was hit.
Additionally, the Kropotkinskaya
oil pumping station, the largest
in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium
handling Kazakhstan's oil
exports, was put out of operation.
These strikes impact Russia's
oil processing and transportation
capabilities in the southern region."
"Russia
The Russian Defence Ministry
claims to have intercepted and
destroyed 90 Ukrainian drones
and a Neptune-MD cruise missile
during the night of February 16-17.
According to their report, the majority
of the drones were downed over the
Sea of Azov (38), Krasnodar Krai (24),
occupied Crimea (15), and the Black
Sea (7), with the remaining six drones
allegedly intercepted across various
Russian regions including Kursk,
Rostov, Bryansk, and Belgorod oblasts."
"Somalia
U.S.
airstrikes in northern Somalia killed 16
ISIS-affiliated militants, including two
bomb-makers, and destroyed a bomb factory.
The Sunday operation, conducted with
UAE support, targeted villages in
Puntland's Cal Miskaad mountains.
Militants attempted retaliation with
seven drones, but five were shot down.
While local officials reported 16
deaths, AFRICOM confirmed only two."
"Somalia
The U.S.
Africa Command (AFRICOM) conducted
two recent airstrikes against
ISIS in northeastern Somalia.
The latest strike on Sunday
killed two militants."
"Syria
Turkish fighter jets conducted airstrikes
near several locations in Syria,
including villages near Ain Al-Arab
(Kobani) and areas around Qorah Qozak
Bridge and Teshrin Dam in eastern Aleppo.
While no casualties were reported,
there were mutual drone attacks between
Turkish forces and SDF (Syrian Democratic
Forces) - SDF shot down two Turkish
kamikaze drones near Teshrin Dam, and
in return, SDF drones targeted Turkish
bases in Qorah Qozar and Al-Hushariya."
"Syria
A US airstrike in northwest Syria
killed a senior finance and logistics
official from Hurras al-Din (HaD),
an Al-Qaeda affiliated group.
CENTCOM announced this operation
as part of their ongoing efforts
to disrupt terrorist activities
threatening US, allied, and
civilian personnel in the region."
"Syria
Turkish military forces and allied
factions conducted artillery shelling
on three villages (Taweela, Tel Taweel,
and Om Al-Kaif) near Tel Tamr in
western Al-Hasakah countryside, Syria.
No injuries or deaths were
reported from the bombardment."
"Syria
Turkish military forces have
escalated tensions in northern
Syria with artillery strikes near
strategic infrastructure (Teshreen
Dam and Qarquzaq Bridge) in Aleppo's
countryside, while Turkish fighter
jets conducted flights over Kobane.
This military activity is part of
ongoing confrontations between Turkish
forces and the Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria."
"Taiwan
The Taiwanese Ministry of National
Defense reported significant
Chinese military activity near
Taiwan during a 24-hour period.
They detected 41 Chinese military
aircraft, nine naval vessels, and
one official ship, with 28 aircraft
crossing the Taiwan Strait median
line and entering Taiwan's air
defense identification zone (ADIZ).
In response, Taiwan mobilized its
forces, including patrol aircraft,
naval vessels, and missile defense
systems, to monitor the situation."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,530 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Over 380 pieces of equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Russian forces conducted two drone
attacks on Kostiantynivka, Donetsk
region, targeting first a water
truck and then an evacuation team.
The second strike injured three
officials - two police officers
and the head of the local military
administration - who were responding to
help those wounded in the initial attack."
"Ukraine
Russian drones attacked Zaporizhzhia at
night, causing damage to 21 buildings (15
apartment buildings and 6 private homes).
The attack resulted in broken windows,
damaged roofs, and power outages
in several residential buildings.
Emergency teams and local
organizations responded immediately,
with window repairs already
completed in 9 apartment buildings.
Officials reported that at
least 10 Russian drones were
involved in the attack."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces successfully defended
against a large-scale Russian drone attack
on the night of February 16-17, 2025.
Of the 147 UAVs launched by
Russia, 83 were shot down across
multiple regions, and 46 others
failed to reach their targets.
The drones were launched from
several Russian locations including
Oryol, Bryansk, and Kursk.
While Ukraine's air defense systems
were largely successful, some damage
was reported in the Kharkiv, Kyiv,
Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia regions."
"Ukraine
A Russian Shahed drone attack
on Kharkiv, Ukraine, resulted
in explosions in two districts
- Saltivskyi and Kholodnohirskyi.
The attack damaged a private residence,
and three people suffered acute stress
reactions requiring medical attention.
This incident occurred amid ongoing
Russian drone attacks across
Ukraine, with air raid alerts
active in Kyiv and other regions."
"Ukraine
A 57-year-old man was injured in a Russian
attack using an FPV drone in Myropillia.
The attack occurred around 16:00 on
February 17, 2025, targeting civilian
infrastructure, according to the
Prosecutor's Office of Sumy Oblast."
"Ukraine
Russian forces conducted a drone
attack on Kharkiv city on February 17.
Ukrainian air defense forces
reportedly intercepted and shot
down a Russian Molniya UAV over
the Shevchenkivskyi district.
According to Mayor Ihor Terekhov
and Regional Governor Oleh
Syniehubov, no casualties were
reported in this incident."
"Ukraine
Russian forces conducted a kamikaze
drone attack on the Chervonohryhorivka
community in Ukraine's Nikopol
district, injuring five civilians.
One victim required hospitalization, while
others received outpatient treatment.
The attack also damaged a
filling station and a vehicle.
This incident follows a previous
Russian attack on Marhanets the day
before, which wounded four people."
"Ukraine
Russian forces conducted artillery
attacks on Kherson, damaging the power
grid and causing electricity outages
in multiple districts, particularly
affecting the Korabelnyi district.
According to Roman Mrochko, Head of the
Kherson City Military Administration,
energy crews are working to restore power.
This incident occurred alongside
other Russian drone attacks across
various Ukrainian regions overnight."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces successfully defended
against a Russian assault on the
Pokrovsk front during a snowstorm.
The Russian forces attempted to
exploit poor visibility by sending
infantry groups of 5-7 soldiers
approaching from multiple directions.
However, Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance
detected the movement, allowing
artillery and drone operators to
eliminate the Russian forces before
they could reach Ukrainian positions.
The defense maintained its
tactical positions, and the Russian
assault was completely repelled."
Terrorism
"India
Security forces in West Singhbhum
district recovered three IEDs during
a two-day operation against Maoists.
Two devices (20 kg and 5 kg) were
found along the Gua-Rovam forest
stretch, while another 5 kg IED was
discovered in the Lemsadih forest area.
The bomb disposal squad
successfully defused all devices."
"Pakistan
Militants attacked a humanitarian aid
convoy in Pakistan's Kurram district,
killing a truck driver and a security
official while wounding 15 others.
The convoy was carrying essential
supplies for residents affected
by sectarian violence between
Shiite and Sunni tribes that has
claimed 130 lives in recent months.
The attackers looted and
burned some aid trucks."
"Pakistan
Two people died, and seven were injured
in a violent confrontation over a
land dispute in Jamshoro, Sindh.
The victims were identified as
Ghulam Khoso and Thim Khoso.
Police have secured the area and
are working to restore order as
tensions remain high in the region."
"Philippines
Nine NPA rebels surrendered to the
Philippine Army's 19th Infantry Battalion
in Northern Samar on February 15, 2025.
The group, which belonged to the NPA's
sub-regional guerrilla unit, turned
over six firearms, including R4, M16,
and carbine rifles, along with an
anti-personnel mine and bandoliers.
The surrenderers, known by their
aliases, presented themselves at the army
headquarters in Opong village, Catubig."
"South Africa
Muhsin Hendricks, the world's first openly
gay Muslim imam, was fatally shot in
South Africa by two masked assailants.
Known for founding a mosque welcoming
LGBTQ+ Muslims in Cape Town, Hendricks
advocated for reconciling the
Islamic faith with queer identity
since coming out in the mid-1990s.
While police haven't established
a motive, many organizations
suspect it was a targeted
assassination due to his teachings.
The Muslim Judicial Council of
South Africa, though opposing
his views, condemned his murder.
Hendricks led the Al-Ghurbaab Foundation
and was internationally recognized for
his work supporting LGBTQ+ Muslims.
"
"South Sudan
Armed Murle youth attacked Kapoeta
North County in South Sudan's
Eastern Equatoria State, killing
14 civilians (including women and
children) and injuring nine others.
The attack occurred at
Napeikar around 4 a.m.
on Friday, where the assailants
also stole 700 cattle.
County Commissioner David Nayee
Lomar condemned the ""brutal and
unprovoked"" attack, noting it's
part of recurring raids by Murle
youth that destabilize the region.
He called on the Greater Pibor
Administrative Area authorities
to return the stolen cattle and
urged the national government to
address these cross-border raids.
"
"Syria
A fatal incident occurred in
Latakia involving armed assailants
on a motorbike who attacked a
checkpoint at Al-Andalus Square.
During the pursuit by Internal Security
Forces, two officers were injured, and
a woman was killed at Al-Azhary Square
in the resulting exchange of gunfire."
"Syria
Two explosive ordnance disposal
experts from the Military Operations
Administration were injured
when an old landmine detonated
during a dismantling operation
in Taybat Al-Imam, northern Hama.
The experts were transported to a
hospital for medical treatment."
"Syria
Syrian security forces arrested three
individuals involved in mass executions
in 2013, following the fall of Bashar
Assad's regime in December 2024.
One of the arrested, Monzer Al-Jazairi,
a former military security operative,
confessed to participating in the
execution of approximately 500 civilians
in the Damascus suburb of Tadamon.
The killings were first exposed
through a leaked video in 2022, showing
Military Intelligence Branch 227
members executing blindfolded prisoners.
The arrests are part of ongoing efforts
by the new Syrian leadership, under
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, to prosecute
those responsible for war crimes during
the country's 13-year civil war."
Weapons
"Lebanon
The IDF has announced the destruction
of a Hezbollah tunnel discovered in
the Lebanese territory near Mount Dov.
The tunnel, which belonged to
Hezbollah's Radwan Force, contained
multiple rooms and weapons stockpiles.
It was initially located by the 810th
Regional Brigade and was demolished
by combat engineers on Sunday."
Cyber
"Tunisia
A Moroccan hacking group called
'Moroccan Soldiers' conducted
DDoS attacks on multiple Tunisian
government websites over the weekend,
including the election authority
(ISIE) and various ministry websites.
While most sites were restored
by Monday morning, the Tunisian
government did not publicly acknowledge
the attacks on social media.
The incident appears
politically motivated."
Civil Unrest
"Israel
Families of hostages and their
supporters are conducting protests
across Israel, including blocking Tel
Aviv's Namir Road, to mark 500 days since
their loved ones were taken captive.
Additional demonstrations and
events are scheduled for the day."
"Turkey
Turkish authorities detained 17 doctors
across 10 provinces, accusing them
of connections to the Gülen movement.
The arrests were based on allegations that
these medical professionals participated
in a Gülen-affiliated study retreat for
medical specialization exam preparation.
The suspects are also accused of using
pay phones to contact movement leaders,
making deposits at a Gülen-linked bank,
and holding leadership positions within
the movement's alleged military network."
"West Bank
A 17-year-old has been arrested for
writing threatening anti-Israeli
graffiti in several locations in Gush
Etzion, a West Bank settlement bloc.
The graffiti included references
to Iran's Ayatollah Khomeini and
historical anti-Jewish events.
Police investigation revealed that
the suspect was contacted through
Telegram by a foreign entity that
paid him in cryptocurrency and
allegedly encouraged him to commit
additional serious acts of sabotage.
The suspect confessed after being
caught with spray paint, and
the investigation is ongoing."
Accidents
"Canada
A Delta Airlines plane arriving
from Minneapolis was involved in a
serious incident at Toronto Pearson
International Airport on Monday.
The aircraft reportedly overturned
on the runway during landing.
Eight people were injured, with
one person in critical condition
requiring airlift to a trauma center.
All passengers and crew were
safely evacuated and accounted for.
The incident has reportedly led to
cancellations of arrivals and departures
at the airport, though airport officials
haven't confirmed these cancellations."
"Egypt
A building collapsed in Cairo's Kerdasa
neighborhood, resulting in 10 deaths
and eight injuries, with more people
potentially trapped under the rubble.
According to witnesses, the collapse
was caused by a gas cylinder explosion."
"India
A coal mining accident in Madhya Pradesh's
Shahdol district resulted in the death of
a couple, Omkar Yadav and Parvati Yadav.
The couple was among five laborers
digging for coal near the Son
River when a mud mound collapsed.
While three workers escaped,
the couple was buried alive."
"India
A firecracker factory explosion in
Maharashtra, India resulted in 2
deaths and 3 injuries on Sunday.
The incident occurred in Katol
area of Nagpur district, causing
structural damage and fire."
"Kazakhstan
A collapse at Kazakhmys' Zhomart
copper mine in central Kazakhstan
has trapped seven miners
approximately 640 meters underground.
Communication with the workers
has been lost due to cable damage.
Emergency rescue teams have
been dispatched to the site."
"Syria
A landmine explosion from war remnants
in Hama's Athriya area killed three
civilians who were collecting truffles.
Additionally, two separate landmine
explosions in SDF-controlled
territories in Deir Ezzor injured two
children - one in Ma'iziliya Town and
another in Suwaidan Jazeera Town."
"Syria
A tragic incident occurred in Hemar
Al-Ali, a town in western Deir
Ezzor under SDF control, where an
unexploded ordnance detonated while
children were playing with it.
The explosion resulted in the
death of one child and injuries
to his three younger brothers."
"United States
A small plane crashed near
Pearland Regional Airport in
Texas late Sunday around 10:45 PM.
The aircraft was found upside down in
a wooded area between Dixie Farm Road
and Madison Ann Drive, approximately
a quarter mile from the airport.
The sole occupant, the pilot, survived
the crash without apparent injuries.
The FAA is investigating the incident,
with details about the plane's
departure location and the cause of
the crash still under investigation."
Other Events
"Indonesia
The Komodo 2025 Multilateral Naval
Exercise (MNEK 2025) is underway in
Indonesia and began at Benoa Port.
The exercise involves 40 warships
and 3,000 naval personnel from 37
countries and focuses on coordinated
search and rescue operations.
The program includes maritime security
seminars, naval drills, cultural
exchanges, public ship tours, defense
exhibitions, and healthcare services,
along with the 6th International
Maritime Security Symposium."
"Israel
Two brothers, Yousef and Hadi Nasser, from
Arraba in the Lower Galilee, have been
indicted for allegedly planning terror
attacks against Israeli security forces.
The pair, who reportedly identified
with Hamas, were arrested by police
and Shin Bet agents after military
equipment was found in their home.
According to authorities, Yousef
had learned to make explosives, and
the brothers were preparing for an
""armed confrontation"" with Israel."
"Thanks for joining us for the February
18, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
As a reminder, complete reports with
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