February 22, 2025 29:13 E63

China's expanding gray zone

Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 22, 2025.

Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and

our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.

We collected and mapped 63 events on
Friday, including China's live-fire drills

in the Tasman Sea, and disinformation
heading into Germany's election.

We have a lot to cover,
so let's get started.

Political Conflict

"Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan has forced the BBC to close
its office in the country, citing

""no legal grounds"" for its operation
and a principle of ""reciprocity.""

The BBC expressed regret over
this decision, viewing it as a

restriction on press freedom.

The BBC's Azeri language service,
which reached approximately 1 million

weekly viewers and has operated since
1994, will be affected, though one BBC

correspondent will retain accreditation.

Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry accused
the BBC of ""politicizing"" the issue

and claimed similar actions were taken
against other foreign media organizations,

though no specifics were provided."

"Bolivia

Former Bolivian President Evo Morales
announced his bid for the August 2025

elections despite constitutional term
limits and pending criminal charges.

Morales, Bolivia's first Indigenous
president, will run with a small leftist

party called ""The Front for Victory""
instead of his traditional MAS party.

He faces opposition from current
President Luis Arce, his former ally,

and is currently under investigation
for alleged relations with a minor

during his 2006-2019 presidency.

This political tension comes
amid Bolivia's severe economic

crisis, marked by high inflation,
shortages, and social unrest."

"Gaza Strip

Following Israel's announcement that
a body Hamas claimed was Shiri Bibas

was actually an unidentified Gazan
woman, Hamas now claims Shiri's remains

were mixed with others in rubble
after an alleged Israeli airstrike.

However, Israeli forensic experts
at Abu Kabir Institute conclusively

determined through multiple
examinations and DNA testing that the

clothed body provided did not match
Shiri or any other female hostages.

While Hamas maintains that Shiri and
her sons were killed in an airstrike,

Israeli authorities have confirmed that
her sons Ariel and Kfir were murdered

by terrorists while in captivity."

"Gaza Strip

Hamas claims there was a possible
""mix-up"" after providing what they said

was Shiri Bibas's body to Israel, which
Israeli authorities determined was not

her but rather a Palestinian woman's body.

While the remains of her two
young sons, Ariel and Kfir, were

identified and determined to have been
killed in captivity by terrorists,

Shiri's fate remains unknown.

Hamas has pledged to investigate the
situation and maintains its commitment

to the current ceasefire-hostage
release agreement, requesting the

return of the misidentified body."

"Germany

German authorities have detected a Russian
disinformation campaign targeting the

federal election through fake social
media content in Hamburg and Leipzig.

The operation, dubbed ""Storm-1516,""
creates misleading content via

pseudo-media sites and fake accounts,
similar to tactics used in the 2024 U.S.

election.

A false video claimed an AfD candidate
was excluded from an electoral list,

while researchers found over 700
fake accounts promoting pro-Russian

narratives and attacking conservative
chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz."

"Israel

Israeli authorities identified the
remains of Oded Lifshitz and brothers

Ariel (4) and Kfir Bibas (10 months)
returned by Hamas, but a fourth body

claimed to be Shiri Bibas was not hers.

The IDF confirmed the Bibas children
were killed by terrorists in November

2023, while Lifshitz died in captivity.

The bodies' return in a
propaganda-filled ceremony sparked

outrage and mourning across Israel."

"Mexico

Mexico's President Claudia
Sheinbaum strongly opposed the U.S.

designation of Mexican drug cartels
as terrorist organizations, warning

against sovereignty violations.

This follows Trump's pressure on
Mexico to curb illegal drugs and

migration, threatening 25% tariffs.

While Mexico is cooperating through
increased border security and

drug seizures, Sheinbaum plans to
expand legal action against U.S.

gun manufacturers."

"Philippines

China and the Philippines are
engaged in a new dispute over aerial

encounters in the South China Sea.

China accused the Philippines of illegally
sending three aircraft into airspace

near the Spratly Islands, claiming
they warned and expelled the aircraft.

The Philippines countered that
their flights were legitimate

surveillance missions to document
Chinese maritime activities and

assert Philippine sovereignty.

This encounter follows an incident earlier
this week where the Philippines accused a

Chinese helicopter of dangerous maneuvers
near their surveillance aircraft."

"Saudi Arabia

A meeting was held in Riyadh with leaders
from six Arab nations to discuss Egypt's

plan for Gaza's post-war reconstruction.

The plan aims to ensure Palestinians
can stay in their territory and

maintain their rights, countering a
previous Trump proposal to relocate

Gaza's residents to Egypt and Jordan.

This Trump plan was rejected by Egypt,
Jordan, the Arab League, and the EU

for undermining the two-state solution.

The US says it's open to alternative
plans but opposes any solution

that keeps Hamas in power."

"South Africa

During the G20 Summit in Johannesburg,
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang

Yi endorsed recent US-Russia
talks on ending the Ukraine war.

China claims to support peace efforts and
offered to play a ""constructive role."""

"West Bank

Israel plans to release 602
Palestinian prisoners as part of

the Hamas hostage exchange deal.

The group includes 445 Gazans
arrested after October 7, 60

long-term prisoners, 50 serving life
sentences, and 47 previously released

in the 2011 Gilad Shalit exchange.

Seven prisoners originally scheduled
for release outside Israel opted to

remain imprisoned and were replaced
with other eligible candidates."

Military Conflict

"Democratic Republic of Congo

Burundi is withdrawing some troops from
DR Congo amid supply issues while the

Rwandan-backed M23 rebels advance through
eastern DRC, capturing key cities.

This has triggered Burundi's
largest refugee crisis in 25

years, with around 30,000 Congolese
fleeing across the border.

Refugees face dire conditions without
basic necessities, and Burundi plans

to relocate them to its eastern region.

The UN warns of potential regional
conflict as M23 approaches the tri-border

area of DRC, Rwanda, and Burundi.

The US has sanctioned a Rwandan
minister for supporting M23, though

Rwanda denies involvement and claims
threats from Hutu fighters in DRC."

"India

A soldier named Mohammad Asif Rather was
injured when he stepped on a landmine

while patrolling near the Line of Control
in Poonch district, Jammu and Kashmir.

The incident occurred in the Balakote
sector around 5 PM on Thursday,

resulting in injuries to his left foot."

"Iraq

Three PKK members were found dead in
Duhok, northern Iraq, following clashes

with Turkish forces near Mount Metina.

The Turkish Defense Ministry reported
""neutralizing"" eleven militants in

the Operation Claw-Lock region and
killing 31 others across northern

Iraq and Syria in the past week."

"Iraq

Turkish forces conducted
multiple operations against

PKK militants in northern Iraq.

Nine militants were targeted in the
Operation Claw-Lock region, while two

additional PKK members were neutralized
by Turkish intelligence in Hakurk

while allegedly planning an attack."

"Myanmar

The Myanmar military junta conducted
air strikes on Pauktaw Township,

Rakhine State, resulting in four
civilian deaths, including two children.

The attacks targeted multiple villages
on the Pein Hne Chaung Island, part

of the Pha Yone Kar island group,
causing at least 17 injuries.

The affected area has been under
the control of the Arakan Army (AA)

since January 2024, following their
offensive against the Myanmar military.

The attacks specifically hit civilian
targets in the villages of Kyauk

Taung, Ma Nyin Kaing, and Sin Tet Maw,
using a Y-12 aircraft to drop bombs."

"Pakistan

Pakistani security forces conducted an
intelligence-based operation in Karak

District, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, resulting
in the elimination of six terrorists.

The operation, announced by the military's
media wing (ISPR), was launched after

receiving intelligence about the
presence of extremist militants."

"Sudan

An airstrike in El Koma, North Darfur,
killed one person on Wednesday, with

additional bombardments continuing
the following day, causing an

unconfirmed number of casualties."

"Sudan

The Sudanese Air Force resumed bombing
operations in Nyala, South Darfur's

capital, following a week-long pause.

Eight barrel bombs were dropped on
Nyala Airport and eastern neighborhoods,

though no casualties were reported."

"Sudan

A deadly aerial attack struck El
Khazan Jadeed in El Shaeiriya, East

Darfur, resulting in at least 10
fatalities and dozens of injuries.

Local residents reported that this
was the first aerial bombardment

in their area, which also caused
several houses to burn down."

"Syria

The IDF has confirmed conducting
airstrikes along the Lebanon-Syria

border, targeting crossings used
by Hezbollah for weapons smuggling.

The military states that these smuggling
attempts violate existing ceasefire

agreements between Israel and Lebanon."

"Syria

Turkish airstrikes targeted
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)

positions in multiple locations.

In east Aleppo countryside, the
attacks killed two SDF fighters

and wounded three others.

Additional strikes were conducted
near Sarin, Kobane, and Teshreen

dam areas, though no casualties
were reported from these locations."

"Syria

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
shot down a Turkish drone

near Kobane in western Aleppo.

The incident reflects ongoing military
tensions between Turkish forces and

SDF in northern Syria, occurring amid
increased drone activity in the region."

"Taiwan

The Taiwanese Ministry of National
Defense reported detecting significant

Chinese military activity near
Taiwan over a 24-hour period.

They observed 28 Chinese military aircraft
and seven naval vessels, with 25 aircraft

crossing the Taiwan Strait median line in
both northern and southern defense zones.

Taiwan responded by deploying its own
aircraft, ships, and coastal missile

systems to monitor these activities."

"Ukraine

Russian forces conducted an airstrike
using glide bombs on Huliaipole,

resulting in three civilian injuries and
the destruction of at least 13 houses.

According to Ivan Fedorov, Head
of the Zaporizhzhia Regional

Military Administration, the injured
civilians have been hospitalized."

"Ukraine

Russian forces attacked the residential
area of Sloviansk, Donetsk region,

resulting in six civilian casualties.

The attack damaged 59 private
homes and an educational facility.

Emergency services are
responding to the scene."

"Ukraine

Ukrainian forces intercepted a
massive Russian drone attack on

the night of February 20-21, 2025.

Out of 160 Shahed-type drones and
multiple decoy drones launched from

various Russian locations, Ukrainian
air defense successfully shot

down 87 drones across 12 regions.

The attack also included two
Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic

missiles targeting the Odesa
region from occupied Crimea.

While strikes were reported in
Odesa, Kyiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv

regions, Ukrainian forces also
managed to disrupt 70 Russian decoy

drones through radar detection."

"Ukraine

Russian forces conducted three
drone attacks on Ukraine's Sumy

region (Velykopysarivka and Esman
communities) on February 21.

The attacks damaged a private
residence in Velykopysarivka.

Ukrainian air defense successfully
intercepted seven Russian

Shahed drones in the region."

"Ukraine

In the past 24 hours, Russian forces
launched 588 attacks on 12 settlements in

Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, including
22 airstrikes, 329 drone attacks, 8

MLRS attacks, and 229 artillery strikes.

The attacks, reported by regional head
Ivan Fedorov, resulted in one death in

Huliaipole and one injury in Bilenke.

Ten residential buildings were damaged.

The affected areas included
Novoandriivka, Mala Tokmachka,

Malokaterynivka, Stepnohirsk, Pavlivka,
Kamianske, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka,

Charivne, and Novodarivka."

"Ukraine

Russian forces conducted extensive
shelling across 32 settlements in

Ukraine's Kherson region on February 20.

The attacks resulted in two deaths
and two injuries, with significant

damage to civilian infrastructure,
including an apartment building, 15

private homes, and various vehicles.

Ukrainian air defense intercepted one
Russian Shahed drone during this period.

The affected areas included major
settlements like Kherson, Beryslav,

and Bilozerka, among others."

"Ukraine

Russian forces shelled Kramatorsk in
Ukraine's Donetsk region on February

21, causing damage to residential
buildings in the private sector.

According to city military
administration head Oleksandr

Honcharenko, no casualties were reported
in this attack, though emergency

services are assessing the damage."

"Ukraine

Russian forces conducted a drone
strike on a police vehicle in Kupiansk,

Kharkiv Oblast, on February 21 at
7:55, reportedly using a Molniya UAV.

Three police officers from the Kupiansk
District Police Department were injured

in the attack, suffering contusions
and receiving medical attention."

"Ukraine

Russian drone attacks on the Kyiv
region resulted in power line damage

in the Bucha and Obukhiv districts
and a damaged roof of a private

house in the Boryspil district.

While air defense forces were
active throughout the night and

successfully destroyed Russian
targets, no casualties or critical

infrastructure damage was reported.

Power supply has been
restored in affected areas."

"Ukraine

Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,280 Russian

soldiers over the past day.

Over 360 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."

"Ukraine

A Russian airstrike using three
guided aerial bombs hit the village

of Zolochiv in Ukraine's Kharkiv
region, injuring five civilians.

The attack damaged multiple properties,
including two destroyed houses, four

damaged households, and a vehicle.

The strikes also affected the
outskirts of nearby Orishanka village."

"Ukraine

A Russian drone attack in the
village of Mykilske, Kherson

region, injured a 57-year-old man
who was treated for an explosive

injury, wounds, and arm fractures.

He declined hospitalization."

"Ukraine

Russian forces conducted an aerial
bombing attack on Kostiantynivka,

Donetsk region, on February 21,
dropping three bombs that resulted

in one death and two light injuries.

The attack damaged nine private homes
and three non-residential buildings."

"Ukraine

The spokesman for the Siversk
Operational and Tactical Group of

Troops, Vadym Mysnyk, reported that
Russian forces are actively shelling the

northern border of Ukraine, utilizing
artillery and fiber-optic UAVs.

Ukrainian forces are actively working
to counteract these threats by shooting

down drones with air defense systems and
mobile fire groups, as well as employing

electronic warfare to suppress them.

Mysnyk also noted the presence of
Russian subversive reconnaissance

groups, particularly in areas
adjacent to the Kursk region, where

Russian troops are concentrated.

Ukrainian Defense Forces are actively
trying to detect and neutralize these

groups before they cross the border."

"Ukraine

Russian forces conducted an attack
on Huliaypole, a frontline village

in the Zaporizhzhia region, resulting
in the death of a 53-year-old

man and damage to private homes."

"Ukraine

A Russian drone attack occurred
in Sumy, Ukraine, on February

20th, targeting residential areas
and causing property damage.

The Sumy City Council advised residents
to report any damage to the police."

"Ukraine

Russian forces launched nighttime
attacks on Zelenivka village in the

Kherson community, causing damage to two
private homes and power infrastructure.

Over the past day, Russian troops
also shelled multiple settlements

in the Kherson city territorial
community, including Kherson,

Sadove, Antonivka, Prydniprovske,
Inzhenerne, Komyshany, and Zelenivka.

The attacks resulted in damage to
at least seven private houses, two

educational institutions, and a vehicle."

Terrorism

"Gaza Strip

Hamas has confirmed it will release six
hostages on Saturday, including four

people captured during the October 7,
2023 attacks (Tal Shoham, Omer Shem-Tov,

Eliya Cohen, and Omer Wenkert) and
two long-term captives (Avera Mengistu

and Hisham al-Sayed) who entered
Gaza independently over a decade ago.

According to Hamas, these six
individuals represent the last

living hostages to be released under
the first phase of the agreement.

The families have already been
informed by Israeli officials."

"Germany

An 18-year-old Russian citizen
of Chechen ethnicity was arrested

for allegedly planning an attack
on the Israeli Embassy in Berlin.

The suspect was apprehended
at Berlin's BER airport while

attempting to leave the country.

German police confirmed the arrest and
detention but provided limited details.

According to Bild newspaper, the
investigation was initiated following

intelligence from a foreign agency."

"Germany

A knife attack near Berlin's
Holocaust memorial has left

one man seriously injured,
according to German media reports.

The incident occurred around 18:00 local
time, and the victim was transported

to hospital by emergency services.

Police have secured the area and
launched an investigation, while

witnesses to the incident are
receiving care from rescue workers.

The attacker remains unidentified."

"India

A District Reserve Guard (DRG) jawan
was injured in Chhattisgarh's Narayanpur

district when he accidentally triggered
a pressure IED planted by Maoists.

The incident occurred during a
joint patrol operation between

Toymeta and Kawanar villages,
and the injured jawan was being

airlifted for medical treatment."

"India

Police arrested 17 militants from
banned outfits across four districts

in Manipur over a 24-hour period.

Thirteen of the arrests were
members of KYKL from Bishnupur

district, where authorities
seized ammunition, communication

equipment, and tactical gear.

The remaining arrests included members
of the United National Liberation

Front (P), Kangleipak Communist
Party (City Meitei), and KCP (PWG),

who were apprehended in Imphal East,
Kakching, and Imphal West districts.

Some of the militants were reportedly
involved in extortion activities."

"Israel

The Shin Bet has reportedly arrested three
suspects in connection with the recent bus

bombings in Bat Yam and Holon, including
at least one Jewish Israeli and one

Palestinian who was illegally in Israel.

The Jewish Israeli suspect is
scheduled for a remand hearing today.

The security agency has declined
to comment further, citing

an ongoing investigation."

"Pakistan

Armed militants attacked a police
check post in Balochistan, Pakistan,

killing two officers and injuring others
before police killed four attackers."

"West Bank

The IDF reports detaining approximately
90 terror suspects in the West Bank

during the past week as part of
Operation Iron Wall, including five

overnight arrests near Tulkarem.

They also confiscated 15
firearms during this period.

Following recent bus bombings in Bat Yam
and Holon, the IDF has increased security

measures by blocking several West Bank
checkpoints, intensifying activities

in the seam zone, and deploying three
additional battalions to the area."

Civil Unrest

"Indonesia

Indonesian citizens are protesting
nationwide against President

Prabowo Subianto's recent austerity
measures, which aim to save 306.7

trillion rupiah ($18.8

billion) through budget cuts on office
spending, ceremonies, and business trips.

The protests, organized under the ""Dark
Indonesia"" social media movement, are

particularly focused on the government's
decision to redirect funds toward

campaign promises, including a $4.3

billion free-meal program
for schoolchildren.

The demonstrations have spread across
major cities, including Jakarta,

Surabaya, and Yogyakarta, with protesters
criticizing the government's approach

to national issues and demanding a
re-evaluation of the free-meal program.

"
"Israel

Thousands of Israelis gathered in Tel Aviv
to mourn and protest following Hamas's

handover of four Israeli bodies from Gaza.

Demonstrators carried orange balloons
to commemorate the children and demanded

the release of remaining hostages.

Currently, 69 hostages remain in Gaza,
including over 30 deceased individuals

whose bodies are still being held."

"Serbia

Thousands joined student protesters
in Belgrade, Serbia, supporting

their two-month campaign against
corruption and government misconduct.

The protests were sparked by a November
incident where a concrete canopy collapsed

at a train station, killing 15 people.

Despite facing pressure from
President Vucic's administration,

who accused them of acting on foreign
orders, the student movement has

gained significant public support."

Weapons

"Morocco

Investigations into an ISIS-linked
cell led to a three-hour search in the

Boudenib area, revealing a weapons cache.

The hidden arsenal, wrapped in
Malian newspapers from January 2025,

contained multiple firearms, including
a Kalashnikov rifle with magazines,

two other rifles, and ten pistols,
along with various ammunition.

All items were documented and
transferred to the National Scientific

Police Laboratory for analysis."

Cyber

"Azerbaijan

Several Azerbaijani media outlets
under Global Media Group were hit

by a sophisticated cyberattack on
February 20, with hackers placing

religious images on their homepages in
an apparent attempt to implicate Iran.

Two main motives are suspected:
retaliation for coverage of

Russia-related incidents or response
to the outlets' criticism of French

neocolonialism through their support
of the Baku Initiative Group.

The Media Development Agency considers
this a threat to Azerbaijan's

information security, though the true
motivation remains under investigation."

Accidents

"India

In Gujarat's Kachchh, a bus-truck
collision killed at least seven

people and injured several others
among the 40 bus passengers.

The injured remain hospitalized
and the death toll may rise."

"Syria

A fatal explosion killed a child
in Al-Mashtal, Hama province, and a

civilian was injured by a landmine in
an abandoned building in Deir Ezzor.

A young man also suffered
chest injuries from a landmine

in Da'el, Daraa countryside.

All incidents involved old landmines
in areas under new government control,

demonstrating the persistent threat
of unexploded ordnance in the region."

"Syria

Two civilians were injured when their car
struck a legacy landmine in Rasm Al-Dawali

village, located in the Al-Khafsah
district of Manbij, eastern Aleppo.

The incident occurred in an area under
the control of National Army factions."

"United States

A helicopter crash on Thursday at Ririe
Reservoir near Idaho Falls, Idaho,

resulted in one fatality and one injury.

The incident, which occurred on the
frozen reservoir, prompted a multi-agency

response with first responders using
snowmobiles to reach the crash site.

A downed power line was found in
the area, though the cause of the

crash remains under investigation.

The FAA and NTSB have been
notified, and the surviving

victim is expected to recover."

"United States

A small plane crashed in a marsh
in Linn County, Kansas on Thursday.

The pilot, who was the only occupant,
emerged uninjured from the incident.

Kansas Highway Patrol (KHP), along
with the Linn County Sheriff's Office

and Kansas Department of Wildlife
& Parks, responded to the scene."

Other Events

"Australia

China's navy conducted a sudden
live-fire exercise between

Australia and New Zealand, forcing
airlines to modify flight paths.

The exercise involved three vessels
operating in international waters

outside Australia's economic zone.

While China provided the required
notice, Australian officials expressed

concern over the short warning
that disrupted commercial aviation.

Prime Minister Albanese stated there
was no imminent risk to either country

and noted uncertainty about whether
the live fire was actually used.

Both Australian and New Zealand
authorities monitored the situation,

with officials planning to discuss
the matter with Chinese counterparts."

"South Korea

Police have booked impeached President
Yoon Suk Yeol for allegedly interfering

with a detention warrant's execution.

Specifically, he's accused of directing
the Presidential Security Service to

prevent investigators from detaining
him regarding a martial law incident.

However, due to presidential
immunity, he cannot be prosecuted

for this charge while in office."

"Sweden

Sweden is investigating suspected
sabotage of the C-Lion1 underwater cable

connecting Finland and Germany in the
Baltic Sea - the third time this cable

has been damaged in recent months.

This incident is part of a series
of infrastructure disruptions in the

region since Russia's invasion of
Ukraine, including damage to the Nord

Stream pipelines, a Finland-Estonia gas
pipeline, and multiple telecom cables.

While most incidents were attributed
to ships dragging anchors, the

frequency of such events has raised
concerns, prompting NATO to launch

Operation Baltic Sentry to protect
critical underwater infrastructure."

"Uganda

Ugandan opposition leader Kizza
Besigye faces treason charges for

allegedly plotting to overthrow
President Museveni's government.

Arrested in Nairobi on November 16, he
was initially tried by a military tribunal

until the Supreme Court intervened.

Besigye, 68, has been on hunger
strike in prison, appearing frail

in recent court appearances.

This is his second treason charge,
following a failed 2005 case.

He's accused of seeking military
and financial support in Europe

to overthrow the government.

While Amnesty International demands his
release, citing human rights violations,

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