Ceasefire may be off, and the US engages with Egypt and Jordan over Gaza plans
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 12, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
We collected and mapped 73 events on
Tuesday, including Israel's ultimatum for
hostage releases this weekend, and the US
engaging with Egypt and Jordan over Gaza.
We've got a lot to cover, so
let's go ahead and get started.
Terrorism
"Afghanistan
On Tuesday, a suicide bomber attack in the
city of Kunduz killed 25 people, including
Taliban security forces and civil
servants, and wounded 30 other people.
The attack occurred outside a bank in
Kunduz province, where a queue of people
were waiting to collect their salaries.
Authorities are investigating who
was responsible for the attack."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
Monday night, CODECO militia
terrorists attacked the Djaiba group
of villages in Djugu, Ituri province,
killing at least 55 civilians.
The attack resulted in the
summary execution of residents
and the burning of houses.
During the attack, the UN
peacekeeping force known as MONUSCO
and Congolese government troops
intervened but were overwhelmed
by the more numerous attackers."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
The M23 rebels, backed by Rwanda,
have resumed attacks on the Democratic
Republic of Congo's (DRC) armed forces
in eastern DR Congo despite calls for
a ceasefire from 24 regional leaders.
The rebels are advancing on South Kivu
province, forcing residents to flee and
placing displacement camps under pressure.
Last Friday, the town of Bukavu
started preparing for an M23 offensive,
shuttering schools as residents
began to flee and shops closed
over fears of an imminent attack.
On Sunday, people fled a displacement
camp located west of Goma after
an M23 colonel entered the camp.
Furthermore, militants attacked the
village of Ihusi at dawn on Tuesday."
"Equatorial Guinea
On Monday, armed pirates attacked the
Portugal-flagged general cargo ship
JSP VENTO about 60 nautical miles
west of Bata, Equatorial Guinea.
Ten minutes after boarding
the ship, the pirates fled.
The crew was unharmed,
and no cargo was stolen.
This incident follows another attack on
the same ship on February 1, 2025, when an
armed gang boarded the vessel and stayed
on board for 45 minutes before leaving."
"Ethiopia
On Monday, fighting between Fano
forces and the Ethiopian Defense
Force occurred in several areas of
the Amhara region, including Wanzaye,
Quara, Minjar Shewa, and Shewa.
Clashes have resulted in reported
casualties on both sides.
Fano forces reportedly ambushed a
government troop convoy traveling
from Shewa Robit to Debre Berhan
near the locality of Ferfer.
According to reports, the government's
anti-riot forces escorting officials
suffered casualties during the ambush."
"India
On Tuesday, an IED blast in
Laleali, Akhnoor sector of Jammu and
Kashmir killed two Indian soldiers.
The Indian Army has confirmed
the incident and is conducting
search operations in the area."
"India
On Tuesday, an IED blast killed two
Army personnel, including a captain,
and injured another along the Line
of Control (LOC) in the Bhattal area
in the Akhnoor sector of Jammu."
"India
A Maoist IED blast injured a Central
Reserve Police Force (CRPF) constable in
Chhattisgarhâs Sukma district while he and
his team were returning from an operation.
The incident occurred near a CRPF camp
in the Jagargunda police state area.
This incident highlights the frequent
use of IEDs by Maoists in the Bastar
region targeting security forces."
"India
On Monday, police arrested two
Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP Apunba)
militants during an operation in the
Rupmahal Tank area of Imphal West."
"India
On Sunday, police arrested two United
National Liberation Front (Koireng)
and PREPAK militants from boundary
pillar 85 in the Tengnoupal district."
"India
On Sunday, security forces in Manipur
arrested five individuals and a juvenile
linked to the banned Kangleipak Communist
Party (KCP Taibanganba) during an
operation in the Tengnoupal district.
Security forces recovered a
significant cache of firearms and
ammunition from the individuals."
"Kenya
Monday morning, bandits ambushed three
police officers escorting eight detainees
in the Charda area along the Maralal
-Baragoi -South Horr road in Samburu
County, killing one police officer.
Police stated that the detainees
went missing after the attack.
The assailants seized the slain officerâs
gun with 30 bullets during their escape."
"Pakistan
On Monday, a mortar shell hit a house in
Malikdin Khel, Tirah Valley, seriously
injuring a father and his daughter."
"Pakistan
Early Monday morning, a mortar shell
fell on a house in the Machapura
area in Barqambar Khel of Tirah
Valley, injuring two people."
"Philippines
The Criminal Investigation and Detection
Group (CIDG) seized materials used
for making explosives during a raid
operation in Zamboanga City on Tuesday.
During the operation, police arrested
two suspects for alleged illegal
possession, trade, acquisition,
or disposal of explosives and
explosives materials and related
devices that can be used for making
an improvised explosive device (IED).
The authorities confiscated up
to 2,000 blasting caps, 2,000
improvised non-electric blasting caps,
plastic bags containing suspected
TNT (trinitrotoluene), and other
non-explosive evidence from the suspects."
"Philippines
Anwar Dimasinsil, a 46-year-old vice
mayoral candidate in Maguindanao del Sur,
survived an ambush on Tuesday morning
along the national highway in Buluan Town.
He and his driver were not hurt, but a
bullet hit the driver's bulletproof vest.
Dimasinsil believes the incident
is election-related, as he suspects
the gunmen were targeting him."
"Somalia
After midnight Tuesday, the Islamic State
(IS) terrorists attacked military bases
in Somalia's northeastern Puntland State
with suicide car and motorbike bombs.
The fighting was still ongoing
at the time of the reporting."
"Somalia
Puntland security forces in Somalia's
semi-autonomous state of Puntland have
repelled an attack by ISIS militants
in the Haraya area of the Toga-Jeceel
in the Cal Miskaat Mountains.
Somali troops killed an
unspecified number of terrorists.
Some of the militants were killed
when they detonated explosives
during the failed assault.
The attack also resulted in minimal
casualties among Puntland forces.
The incident marks the second
direct assault by ISIS on Puntland
forces since December 2024."
"Somalia
Late Monday, authorities reported
that suspected Somali pirates
had seized a Yemeni fishing
boat off the Horn of Africa.
The pirates targeted the dhow
near the town of Eyl in Somalia.
The suspects stole three small boats
equipped with 60-horsepower engines.
The incident remains under investigation."
"Sweden
On Tuesday, Swedish police announced
the arrest of an individual in
Stockholm County on suspicion of
planning terrorist activities linked
to violent Islamist extremism.
The suspect faces multiple charges,
including preparation for a terrorist
offense and planning to use explosives.
Authorities have not disclosed the
suspect's identity or nationality,
but the arrest is part of a broader
counterterrorism operation."
"Turkey
Turkish police have detained 10 officials
from Istanbul's opposition district
municipalities, including deputy mayors
and members of municipal councils.
The officials, who belong to the
Republican People's Party (CHP), are
accused of appointing individuals
affiliated with the Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK) to municipal
positions, enabling the group
to infiltrate local government."
"Yemen
The United Nations World Food
Program (WFP) has confirmed the
death of a staff member who was held
captive by Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The employee, a Yemeni national,
had been detained since January,
and the circumstances of his
death were not specified.
The UN has suspended its activities in
Yemen's Saada region due to the detention
of multiple personnel by the rebels.
The Houthis have arrested numerous
UN and NGO workers, accusing
them of being part of a spy
network, which the UN has denied."
Military Conflict
"Democratic Republic of Congo
On Tuesday, clashes reignited between
M23 rebels and Congolese forces
along the Lubero front in North Kivu
province, Democratic Republic of Congo.
According to local news
source Actualite.cd,
the M23 rebel group bombed Congolese
army positions in the town of
Kivisire following a deadly rebel
attack on Sunday that killed a
civilian and Congolese soldiers.
Heavy weapons fire was
also reported in Ndoluma."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
South African National Defence Force
(SANDF) reportedly deployed additional
troops in the Democratic Republic
of Congo (DRC) following the killing
of 14 soldiers in fighting with
Rwanda-backed M23 rebels last month.
Last week, flight data showed the
deployment of an additional 700-800
troops and military equipment to
Lubumbashi, a city in southern DRC,
amidst fears of a broader regional war."
"Iraq
The Iraqi Air Force has conducted
another strike against Islamic State
(ISIS) remnants, targeting a position
in eastern Salah ad Din province.
The airstrike successfully
destroyed the terrorist position."
"Iraq
On Tuesday, Turkish warplanes conducted
an airstrike on PKK positions in the
village of Gargash in Iraqi Kurdistan.
The attack targeted PKK militants who
were hiding in evacuated villages.
No information was given
about casualties or damage."
"Myanmar
Monday morning, a junta airstrike
killed at least five civilians and
wounded 19 others in the western part
of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army
(TNLA) controlled township of Mogoke.
The township is frequently subjected
to airstrikes by the junta.
Residents believe the most recent air
raid may be the junta's retaliation
for the TNLA's seizure of mining plots,
some of which have been returned to
local miners and are now operational."
"Myanmar
On Sunday, two junta airstrikes near
Nang Tet Village in Kyauktaw, Arakan
State, resulted in the death of a young
woman and injuries to four others.
The airstrike hit a former free
computer training school and a chili
farm, with the victim being hit by
shrapnel while working in the field."
"Myanmar
The Kachin Independence Army
(KIA) and allied forces recently
captured the junta's Tank
Battalion 5014 in Bhamo Township.
In response, junta troops from the
captured battalion withdrew to the
nearby 21st Military Operations Command.
Fierce clashes have occurred around
the command and other remaining
battalions over the past few days,
resulting in casualties for both sides.
Faced with these losses, the
military regime is now increasingly
relying on drone attacks."
"Myanmar
A landmine explosion in Shwe
Zar Gone Nar (Muslim) village,
Maungdaw Township, injured three
people, including a 2-year-old
child, last Thursday, February 6."
"Myanmar
A woman lost her left leg and sustained
serious injuries to her right leg after
stepping on a landmine while gathering
firewood in Taungup Town, Arakan
State, last Thursday, February 6."
"Pakistan
Police and security forces
conducted a joint operation in Karak
district, killing five militants.
The operation was launched based
on credible information about
the presence of terrorists.
The terrorists opened fire
on the law enforcers, leading
to a one-hour gun battle.
After the exchange of fire, the
bodies of the terrorists, along with
weapons and ammunition, were found.
The terrorists were involved in bank
robberies, attacks on polio teams, and
attacks on police and FC installations.
Ten acc"
"Philippines
A suspected NPA rebel was killed
in an encounter with government
troops in Barangay Tala-on,
La Libertad, Negros Oriental.
The encounter site was near Barangay Aya,
where armed men burned heavy equipment.
The identity of the deceased is
believed to be Rolito Tanillo,
but it is still being confirmed.
A defaced M-14 rifle was also recovered."
"Russia
Ukrainian forces struck the
Saratov oil refinery in Russia,
causing a fire at the site.
The refinery produces various
petroleum products, including
gasoline, fuel oil, and diesel, which
are used to supply the Russian army.
The extent of the damage
is still being assessed."
"South Sudan
Clashes have taken place between
the Sudanese forces and the National
Salvation Front (NAS), as well as between
Sudanese troops and the Sudan People's
Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO).
The clashes have resulted in the deaths
of 9 soldiers and the injury of 18
others in Central and Western Equatoria.
On Sunday, NAS rebels attacked
an SSPDF position in Jalmon
village, Kongapo 2 Payam, Kajo Keji
County, Central Equatoria State.
The assault resulted in the deaths
of three service members and
the wounding of two civilians.
Furthermore, the rebels carried
out a separate attack against
civilians in Kajokeji, killing
two children from the same family.
The surrounding village was set
ablaze, and the children were
burned beyond recognition."
"Syria
Fierce clashes erupted in Tal Abyad
city between military police and
the Al-Jabha Al-Shammyah faction
over smuggling routes and control
of a border crossing with Turkey.
Seven members from both
sides were injured.
The clashes caused panic among
civilians, leading to the
closure of schools and markets."
"Syria
A Turkish drone attacked civilian
houses in Sarin Town in the Ain
Al-Arab (Kobane) countryside,
but no casualties were reported.
This attack coincided with a Turkish
drone attack on the Qarqozak Bridge
in the Manbij countryside, as well
as Turkish airstrikes on positions in
the Kobani and Manbij countryside."
"Syria
Fierce clashes broke out between
factions of the National Army and
SDF on the Syriatel Hill frontline,
accompanied by mutual bombardment.
Similar clashes occurred at the
Qarrah Quzaq Bridge and Teshreen Dam,
coinciding with Turkish airstrikes.
No casualties have been reported,
and details about material
damage are still unknown.
Additionally, seven SDF fighters were
killed in recent clashes at the Qarrah
Quzaq bridge, Teshreen Dam, and Sarin."
"Syria
Turkish forces launched heavy artillery
attacks on several villages in Tel
Tamr and Ain Eissa countryside.
The targeted villages include
Om Al-Kaif, Al-Aboush, Qobour
Al-Qarajana, and Al-Safawiya.
Fortunately, no casualties were reported."
"Syria
Two SDF fighters were killed
in a Turkish drone attack on a
military post near Qarrah Quzaq
frontline in Manbij countryside.
The total number of SDF
fighters killed in Turkish drone
airstrikes today is now four."
"Taiwan
Taiwan tracked 32 Chinese
military aircraft, eight naval
vessels, and one official ship
around its country between 6 a.m.
on Monday and 6 a.m.
on Tuesday.
22 military aircraft crossed the
Taiwan Strait median line in the
country's northern and southwestern
Air Defense Identification Zone.
Taiwan also tracked one Chinese balloon to
the nation's west and one to the north."
"Ukraine
The Russian military conducted an
airstrike on the village of Zolochiv
in the Kharkiv region, injuring six
residents, including a 12-year-old boy.
According to Oleh Syniehubov, head
of the Kharkiv Regional Military
Administration, a private residential
house was hit by a guided aerial
bomb, causing multiple injuries.
Three of the wounded were
hospitalized, while the others
received medical assistance on-site."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched an airstrike on
Kostiantynivka, injuring three civilians.
The attack caused damage to
private houses, power lines,
a gas pipeline, and vehicles."
"Ukraine
As a result of a Russian airstrike
on the Krasnopillia community in the
Sumy region, two people were killed.
The attack also caused damage
to an agricultural enterprise,
vehicles, and buildings."
"Ukraine
In the Kherson region, two people were
killed, and six others were injured
as a result of Russian strikes.
Multiple cities and towns were
under Russian fire and airstrikes.
Six apartment buildings, 12 private homes,
gas pipelines, agricultural machinery,
and private vehicles were damaged.
Air defense forces destroyed
one Russian drone."
"Ukraine
In the Boryspil district of
Kyiv region, Russian drones
damaged educational institutions.
The attack lasted all night, with air
defense forces working to down targets.
However, there were no hits to
critical or residential infrastructure.
The blast wave damaged a
kindergarten, two school buildings,
a playground, and a private house.
Utility services are currently
addressing the aftermath, and
educational institutions are expected
to resume full-time work next week."
"Ukraine
Russia launched a combined attack with
up to 19 missiles and 124 Shahed-type
attack UAVs on gas production facilities
and other targets in the Poltava region.
The Ukrainian Air Force and Defense
Forces were involved in repelling
the attack, and as of 10:00 a.m.,
57 drones were confirmed downed.
The attack resulted in damage to
production facilities, including
those of the Naftogaz Group."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,390 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Nearly 400 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Russian forces injured three residents
of the Donetsk region on February 10.
Damage assessments were not
reported in the attacks."
"Ukraine
In the Kropyvnytskyi district of the
Kirovohrad region, private houses
and power lines were damaged by the
wreckage of a downed Russian drone.
The head of the Kirovohrad Regional State
Administration reported the incident,
stating that there were no casualties."
"Ukraine
On the morning of February 11, Russian
forces attacked the village of Omelnyk
in the Zaporizhzhia region with
glide bombs, injuring three people.
The strike caused damage to
private homes and farm buildings.
The injured individuals, a woman, and
two men, received medical assistance."
"Ukraine
Russian forces struck five
times at the border areas and
settlements of the Sumy region.
Five explosions were recorded
in Yunakivka, Khotyn, and
Bilopilia communities.
The Russians attacked with guided
aerial bombs (KAB) and FPV drones.
Air defense forces shot down eight
Russian Shahed drones during the attacks."
Political Conflict
"Egypt
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah
el-Sissi emphasized the need for
the reconstruction of Gaza to occur
without displacing Palestinians.
He also believes that the establishment
of a Palestinian state is crucial for
achieving lasting peace in the region."
"Gaza Strip
US President Donald Trump warned Hamas of
dire consequences if the hostages were not
released as scheduled this weekend, but
Hamas has postponed the release, citing
Israeli violations of the ceasefire.
Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri
urged Trump to respect the ceasefire
between Israel and Hamas in order
to bring home Israeli hostages.
Abu Zuhri emphasized that the language
of threats is unhelpful and only adds
to the complexity of the situation."
"Israel
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu has warned that if Hamas does
not release hostages by midday Saturday,
intense fighting will resume in Gaza.
US President Donald Trump has also called
for the release of hostages by Saturday.
An Israeli official stated
that Hamas must release nine
more hostages by the deadline."
"North Korea
North Korea has denounced
the arrival of a U.S.
nuclear-powered submarine in
South Korea, accusing the U.S.
of ignoring its security concerns.
The North Korean defense ministry
warned that it is ready to use any
means to defend its national security.
This statement is part of
a pattern of North Korea
criticizing the deployment of U.S.
strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula."
"Russia
US President Donald Trump and his
Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff have
successfully secured the release
of American teacher Marc Fogel, who
was detained in Russia since 2021.
National Security Adviser Mike
Waltz confirmed the release and
stated that it is a positive step
towards ending the war in Ukraine."
"South Sudan
On Monday, gunfire erupted in Yambio,
Western Equatoria State, following
President Salva Kiir's decision
to dismiss the governor, Gen.
Alfred Futuyo Karaba.
Tensions are high, with
residents remaining indoors and
awaiting further developments.
Heavy gunshots were reported
near the State House.
The opposition SPLA-IO has issued
a statement, calling the decision a
unilateral move and a serious violation
of the Revitalized Agreement."
"Taiwan
Taiwan authorities found a Taiwanese Navy
sailor posted on a Chih Yang-class frigate
was holding a Chinese ID document, which
his mother obtained without his knowledge.
The sailor, Yang, had registered
for the military as a volunteer
and emphasized that he wanted
to keep his Taiwan citizenship.
The incident is under investigation
by the National Immigration."
"United States
US President Donald Trump has stated
that he may withhold aid to Jordan
and Egypt if they refuse to accept
Palestinian refugees from Gaza.
Egypt and Jordan have both rejected
this proposal, and a freeze on aid could
jeopardize peace agreements with Israel."
"United States
Amid disagreement over Trump's proposal
for Gaza, Secretary of State Rubio
emphasized the importance of cooperation
with Egypt for post-conflict planning
during a meeting in Washington.
Egypt rejected Trump's plan, which was
in line with the Palestinian position.
Rubio emphasized that Hamas should
not govern Gaza or threaten Israel.
Both diplomats affirmed the importance
of the bilateral relationship, including
promoting regional peace and security.
Rubio thanked Egypt for
mediating the hostage release
deal and providing aid to Gaza.
They also discussed the need for inclusive
governance in Syria and preventing it
from becoming a base for terrorism."
"United States
Jordan's King Abdullah met with
US President Donald Trump in the
Oval Office to discuss the US
plan to relocate Palestinians from
Gaza to neighboring countries.
Trump proposed relocating the
Palestinians to a ""parcel of
land"" in Jordan and Egypt.
King Abdullah expressed concerns
about the plan, stating that he needs
to consider Jordan's best interests.
He also mentioned that Arab leaders will
be presenting a plan for Gaza in the near
future, with Egypt leading the effort."
Weapons
"India
Indian forces defused a mortar shell
in Jammu's Akhnoor sector on Tuesday.
Locals in Partap Canal near
Namandar village discovered
the shell around 10 a.m."
Accidents
"Central African Republic
An Antonov An-26B/100 operated by Air Urga
for the United Nations crashed at Ndélé
airport in the Central African Republic.
The cargo flight suffered damage to
the left landing gear, wing section,
and propeller during an attempted
landing on an unpaved runway.
Two people were injured and
evacuated for medical treatment.
The black box will be analyzed to
determine the cause of the incident."
"Ethiopia
No fewer than 26 people have been killed
and 42 injured after a bus overturned
in Oromiya, Ethiopia's largest region.
The bus was traveling from
Shambu to Addis Ababa.
The death toll may rise.
No further details are
available at this time."
"France
The bodies of two men were found on
a beach in northern France, possibly
victims of a recent migrant boat
accident in which 230 people were
rescued from the English Channel.
The bodies were discovered in Berck, about
50 kilometers south of Boulogne-sur-Mer.
It is believed that the men died
while attempting to swim to a
migrant boat already in the water."
"Guatemala
At least 55 people died when a
bus in Guatemala plunged into a
gorge and landed under a bridge.
The bus fell 115 feet into a
sewage-polluted stream, and it was
upside down and half-submerged.
The victims included children.
The president declared a
day of national mourning."
"Syria
Three children died, and four were
injured in separate incidents involving
the explosion of remnant landmines in
different areas of Syria, including
Homs, Idlib, Al-Raqqa, and Daraa."
"Syria
Four civilians of the Anza Tribe
died in a landmine explosion
in the Al-Sukhna Desert.
A shepherd was injured by
shrapnel in Ma'adan City."
"Syria
A member of the National Army
died while working to dismantle
landmines in Tel Al-Madiq Town
in eastern Aleppo countryside.
The death was caused by shrapnel from
the explosion of a war remnant landmine."
"Syria
Two civilians from the Al-Ekaydat
tribe were killed, and two others
were injured by an explosion of an old
landmine in their car while searching
for grassland for their sheep in the
Al-Shaaer desert in Homs countryside."
"United States
A small plane crashed in a wooded area
near Hampton Airfield in New Hampshire.
The pilot was uninjured, and
no one else was on the plane.
The FAA has been notified."
Other Events
"Guam
Aircraft from the United States Air
Force, along with Japan and Australia,
are participating in Cope North 25
at Andersen Air Force Base in Guam.
The main focus of the exercise
is the integration and flight
operations with the F-35A Lightning
and F-35B Lightning II from Japan,
Australia, and the United States.
This exercise aims to enhance
the capabilities of partner
air forces through training,
exercises, and knowledge sharing.
The exchange of information and
refining shared tactics, techniques"
"United Kingdom
A former British soldier, Daniel
Khalife, has been sentenced to 14
years and three months in prison
for spying and terrorism offenses.
He was found guilty of sharing sensitive
military information with Iranian agents.
Khalife's conviction highlights the
serious threat of espionage and the
UK's commitment to national security."
"Thanks for joining us for the February
12, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
As a reminder, complete reports with
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