February 24, 2025 23:18 E65

CDU wins, but AfD does well in Germany

Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 24, 2025.

Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and

our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.

We collected and mapped 50 events
on Sunday, including the outcome

of Germany's election, and China's
response to Australia and New Zealand.

We have a lot to cover,
so let's get started.

Political Conflict

"Afghanistan

The Taliban has lifted a suspension
on Radio Begum, an Afghan women-run

radio station, after it pledged
to follow Taliban regulations.

The station, launched in 2021, has
a sister channel in France that

broadcasts educational content.

While the Taliban continues to restrict
women's education and rights in

Afghanistan, they've allowed the station
to resume broadcasting under unspecified

""principles and regulations."""

"China

Three Australian passenger flights
to New Zealand were forced to divert

after receiving warnings about
Chinese naval live-fire drills.

China's Defense Ministry claims they
issued proper safety notices and followed

international law, while Australia argues
the notification was inadequate, as they

typically expect 12-24 hours' notice.

Australian Foreign Minister
Penny Wong confronted her Chinese

counterpart about the incident
at a G20 meeting in Johannesburg.

The Chinese naval presence in the
region, consisting of three warships,

was described as unusual but not
unprecedented by Australian officials."

"Egypt

Israel has filed a formal complaint
against Egypt regarding alleged violations

of Sinai troop deployment agreements.

Israel's US Ambassador Yechiel Leiter
accused Egyptian President el-Sissi

of violating the 1978 peace agreement
by constructing bases for offensive

operations in the Sinai Peninsula."

"Gaza Strip

Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi
announced the group would suspend

negotiations with Israel until it
releases the 602 Palestinian prisoners

who were promised in exchange for
six Israeli hostages freed yesterday.

This comes after Netanyahu demanded
Hamas end its ""demeaning"" hostage

transfer ceremonies before Israel would
proceed with the prisoner release.

Hamas has called on mediators to
pressure Israel to fulfill its

part of the ceasefire agreement."

"Germany

Germany's CDU leader Friedrich Merz
won Sunday's election with 28.5%,

while the far-right AfD surged to 20.5%,

their best result since WWII.

Chancellor Scholz's Social
Democrats fell to third place

with their worst postwar showing.

The election, held 7 months early
after Scholz's coalition collapsed,

reflected voter discontent over
economic issues and migration.

Merz must now form a coalition
government but has ruled out working

with AfD despite their push for talks.

The Greens secured 12%, and the
Left Party gained strength with 9%.

The results signal significant shifts
in German politics amid concerns about

Ukraine and US-Europe relations."

"Israel

Israel has postponed the release
of Palestinian prisoners, citing

concerns over Hamas's ""humiliating
ceremonies"" during hostage handovers.

Hamas's political bureau member El Rashq
denounced this decision as a violation

of the ceasefire agreement terms.

The delay affected around
600 inmates who were already

prepared to leave Ofer prison.

The decision came after Hamas released
six hostages and following controversy

over the handling of the Bibas
family's remains and a propaganda

video showing hostage transfers.

Netanyahu's office stated that future
prisoner releases would be contingent on

Hamas ending these ceremonial displays."

"Lebanon

During Hassan Nasrallah's funeral on
the outskirts of Beirut, Hezbollah's

leader Naim Qassem delivered
a televised speech pledging to

continue Nasrallah's legacy and path.

Qassem expressed commitment to
upholding Nasrallah's will and

maintaining his approach to
leadership of the organization."

"Pakistan

The Torkham border crossing between
Afghanistan and Pakistan has been

closed for two days, blocking all
travel and trade after Pakistan

responded to Afghanistan's
construction of border facilities.

Commissioner Abdul Jabbar Hikmat reports
thousands of people and commercial

vehicles are stranded on both sides.

This major crossing point's closure adds
to the strained relations between the two

countries, with both sides accusing each
other of violating border agreements."

"Sudan

Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
and allies have signed a charter

to form a parallel government in
rebel-controlled areas despite warnings

this could further fragment the country.

This comes during a two-year civil war
that has displaced 12 million people and

created a massive humanitarian crisis.

The charter calls for a secular
democracy and unified army but

faces opposition from Sudan's
army-aligned government and the UN.

The country is currently divided, with
the army controlling the north/east while

RSF holds Darfur and parts of the south."

Military Conflict

"Lebanon

The IDF has reported new strikes
against Hezbollah targets in

southern Lebanon, targeting buildings
used for weapons storage where

operative activity was detected.

The military stated these activities
violated Israeli-Lebanese agreements.

These strikes are part of multiple
operations conducted today, which

included Israeli fighter jets flying
over Hassan Nasrallah's funeral."

"Lebanon

Lebanese media is reporting an Israeli
airstrike near Brissa village in northern

Lebanon's Hermel District, approximately
130km from the Israeli border.

This strike follows shortly after the
IDF confirmed conducting strikes against

Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon."

"Lebanon

The IDF has confirmed conducting
airstrikes in southern Lebanon,

targeting multiple Hezbollah positions,
including a military site containing

rocket launchers and weapons where
terrorist activity was detected.

The military stated that Hezbollah's
presence at the site violated

Israeli-Lebanese agreements.

Additional strikes were carried
out against Hezbollah rocket

launchers that were deemed a
threat to Israeli civilians."

"Lebanon

The IDF has confirmed conducting new
airstrikes against Hezbollah targets

in Lebanon, hitting sites containing
rocket launchers and weapons in both

the Baalbek area of northeastern
Lebanon and in southern regions.

The military stated these strikes
were conducted after detecting

Hezbollah activity at these locations,
which it considers a violation of

Israeli-Lebanese agreements and
a threat to Israel's security."

"Myanmar

The Arakan Army (AA) ambushed 70 soldiers
from the 32nd Police Battalion near

Kyaukpyu, Arakan State, on February 20.

The hour-long clash resulted
in multiple junta casualties,

including a severely injured
officer, and the AA seized weapons.

The area hosts important Chinese
gas and oil pipeline projects.

The battalion, which consists
mainly of soldiers despite its

police designation, responded with
drone strikes before retreating.

Additional gunfire was later reported
near the Taung Maw Oo naval base."

"Nigeria

The Nigerian Air Force (NAF) conducted
a successful operation in Zamfara

State's Tsafe LGA, killing at least
23 bandits through air strikes.

The operation targeted a group
of cattle rustlers believed to be

connected to kingpin Ado Aleiro.

After tracking the bandits who
had stolen livestock from nearby

communities, military forces
cornered them in a mountainous area

before launching an air assault.

The operation, part of broader military
efforts to combat terrorism and cattle

rustling in the region, also resulted
in the recovery of stolen cattle."

"Pakistan

Pakistani security forces conducted
two separate operations in the DI

Khan District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
on February 23, 2025, resulting in

the elimination of seven terrorists.

Four terrorists were killed during
an intelligence-based operation in

the Daraban area, while three others
were neutralized in the Maddi area.

The military recovered weapons and
ammunition from the terrorists,

who were reportedly involved in
multiple terrorist activities."

"Somalia

The Somali military, in collaboration with
US Africa Command, conducted airstrikes

against ISIS targets in Somalia's
Bari region on February 21-22, 2025.

The operation in the Al-Miskaat Mountains
resulted in three ISIS casualties,

with no civilian casualties reported.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has
established a special committee to

support Puntland's anti-ISIS efforts
and pledged federal resources to assist

local security forces in their ongoing
fight against the extremist group."

"Sudan

The Sudanese army has captured
Alkotainh town in White Nile State

from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF),
marking their latest military victory.

The RSF maintains control of most
of Darfur but has lost significant

ground in Khartoum State, where the
army now controls major portions of

Bahri, Omdurman, and central Khartoum."

"Syria

A Turkish military aircraft conducted an
airstrike targeting a military position

near Sarin junction in the Koban area.

While Turkish jets continued to fly over
the region, no information is currently

available regarding casualties or the
extent of damage from the strike."

"Syria

The Turkish military conducted airstrikes
near key infrastructure in eastern

Aleppo's Kobane region, targeting areas
around the Teshrin Dam, Qorah Qozak

Bridge, and the Sarin Airport campus.

These strikes followed previous
military actions in the area

and occurred as a public convoy
was arriving at Teshrin Dam."

"Syria

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
repelled an attack by Turkish-backed

National Army forces near Teshreen dam,
followed by clashes between both sides.

Additional fighting occurred
at the Qarrah Quzaq frontline.

SDF successfully shot
down a kamikaze drone.

Turkish forces also conducted artillery
strikes on Sarin junction in Kobani

and areas around Qarrah Quzaq bridge.

No confirmed casualties were reported
from any of these military incidents."

"Syria

SDF and Turkish forces engaged in multiple
confrontations in the Kobane area.

SDF fired rockets at a Turkish
base, while Turkish jets conducted

three airstrikes near Sarrin.

SDF successfully defended
against Turkish-backed faction

attacks near Teshreen dam and
shot down a kamikaze drone.

Clashes erupted at Qarrah Quzaq frontline,
and Turkish forces shelled Sarin

junction and Qarrah Quzaq bridge areas."

"Syria

Turkish military forces reported they
have neutralized eight PKK members - six

in northern Syria and two in northern
Iraq - as part of Operation Claw-Lock.

The term ""neutralized"" is used
by Turkish authorities to indicate

that individuals were either
killed, captured, or surrendered."

"Taiwan

Taiwan's defense ministry reported
significant Chinese military activity

near its borders over a 24-hour period,
including 11 military aircraft, six

naval vessels, and two official ships.

All aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait's
median line and entered Taiwan's air

defense identification zone (ADIZ).

Additionally, 3 Chinese
balloons were detected.

Taiwan responded by deploying its own
aircraft, naval vessels, and coastal

missile systems to monitor the situation."

"Ukraine

A Russian FPV drone attack on a civilian
car in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region,

resulted in one death and one injury.

Two other passengers were unharmed.

Additionally, Russian forces
targeted Sloviansk, causing damage

to buildings, and dropped seven
guided bombs on Kostyantynivka."

"Ukraine

Four civilians were injured in
Russian attacks on the Kharkiv

region on February 22, 2024.

Near Kupiansk, a drone struck a
civilian car, injuring a 63-year-old

man and a 58-year-old woman,
both requiring hospitalization.

In Prystin village, an FPV drone
attack wounded a 44-year-old man.

In Zolochiv, a guided aerial bomb
damaged multiple buildings and

injured a 60-year-old woman who
did not need hospitalization."

"Ukraine

A 45-year-old man was seriously
injured in a Russian drone attack in

the Dniprovsky district of Kherson.

The victim suffered multiple injuries,
including a traumatic leg amputation, a

chest wound, and a mine-blast injury."

"Ukraine

A Russian drone attack in the village
of Romashkove, Kherson region,

resulted in serious injuries to a
48-year-old woman when a UAV flew

into a residential building window.

The victim suffered multiple
injuries, including mine-blast

trauma, concussion, and shrapnel
wounds, requiring hospitalization."

"Ukraine

Russian forces conducted a drone attack
on Kyiv that lasted nearly 6 hours.

Debris from downed drones fell in four
districts (Pecherskyi, Holosiivskyi,

Darnytskyi, and Obolonskyi), causing
damage to two private houses, cars,

and a Nova Poshta office roof.

While there were no reported casualties,
the attack resulted in fires in the

Holosiivskyi and Darnytskyi districts."

"Ukraine

Russian forces launched 455 attacks on
Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region on February

22, targeting 13 settlements with a
combination of airstrikes, drone strikes,

MLRS strikes, and artillery attacks.

The assault resulted in one woman
being injured and caused damage to

residential buildings and vehicles,
with 27 damage reports filed.

Multiple settlements were hit,
including Huliaipole, Novodanylivka,

and Novodarivka, which faced attacks
from various weapons systems."

"Ukraine

Russian forces launched a massive drone
attack against Ukraine on February

22-23, 2025, deploying 267 Shahed-type
attack UAVs and drone decoys, plus

three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic
missiles from multiple launch sites.

Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully
intercepted 138 drones across 13

regions, while 119 drone decoys lost
radar tracking without causing damage.

Despite Ukraine's defensive
efforts, the attack resulted in

damage to infrastructure in five
regions: Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa,

Poltava, Kyiv, and Zaporizhzhia."

"Ukraine

A Russian missile attack struck
Kryvyi Rih on Saturday evening,

targeting an infrastructure
facility and causing a fire.

Initially, two people were reported
injured, but the situation worsened

when one of the victims, a man,
later died at the hospital.

Two women were also injured: a
30-year-old woman was hospitalized in

serious condition, and a 31-year-old
woman received outpatient treatment."

"Ukraine

Russian forces launched a ballistic
missile strike in Ukraine's

Sumy region, as confirmed by
acting Sumy Mayor Artem Kobzar.

The missile hit an area
outside populated settlements.

Earlier that day, Ukrainian air
defense successfully intercepted

5 Shahed drones over the region."

"Ukraine

Russian forces conducted attacks
in Ukraine's Donetsk region on

February 22, resulting in five
civilian deaths and 13 injuries.

In Kostiantynivka, three airstrikes
targeted a residential area,

reportedly using FAB-250 guided bombs."

"Ukraine

Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,180 Russian

soldiers over the past day.

Over 285 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."

"Ukraine

A Russian drone attack in Ukraine's Odesa
region resulted in damage to a residential

building and left three people injured.

Emergency services responded quickly
to extinguish fires caused by Shahed

drones, with 18 rescuers and four
units of equipment deployed to

manage the aftermath of the attack."

"Ukraine

A missile strike in Kryvyi Rih
on February 22 resulted in five

injuries, with one person killed.

The attack caused extensive
damage to civilian infrastructure,

including residential buildings,
a church, a social facility, an

enterprise, and a gas station."

"West Bank

Israel's Defense Minister Katz
announced that approximately 40,000

Palestinians have been evacuated
from three West Bank refugee camps

(Jenin, Tulkarem, and Nur Shams).

He has ordered the IDF to
maintain a year-long presence

in these now-emptied camps and
prevent residents from returning.

The military operation aims to eliminate
what Katz describes as ""nests of

terror"" and dismantle infrastructure
allegedly supported by Iran."

"West Bank

The IDF has confirmed deploying tanks
to the West Bank for the first time

since 2002's Operation Defensive
Shield as part of its ongoing Operation

Iron Wall in the northern West Bank.

The expansion includes operations by
the Nahal Infantry Brigade and Duvdevan

Commando Unit in villages near Jenin,
with a platoon from the 188th Armored

Brigade preparing to operate in the area.

Palestinian media has documented the
presence of three tanks in the region."

Terrorism

"Democratic Republic of Congo

DRC government spokesperson Patrick
Muyaya accused Rwanda and M23 rebels

of executing over 10 people in Goma,
North Kivu's provincial capital.

The M23 rebels, who captured Goma in
January and recently took Bukavu, are

allegedly committing various crimes,
including looting, sexual violence,

and forced child recruitment."

"France

A 37-year-old Algerian man on
France's terror watchlist carried

out a stabbing attack in Mulhouse,
killing a 69-year-old Portuguese man

and wounding several police officers.

The suspect, who shouted ""Allahu
Akbar"" during the attack, was

arrested along with three others.

President Macron labeled it
an ""Islamist terrorist act.""

The attacker had a history of mental
health issues and had faced multiple

failed deportation attempts, with
Algeria refusing to accept him.

The incident occurred near a busy
market, and anti-terror prosecutors are

investigating it as murder and attempted
murder with terrorist connections.

"
"Israel

Israeli authorities have arrested
10 suspects (nine Israelis and one

Palestinian) in connection with arms
smuggling operations from Jordan.

The two-month investigation led
to the seizure of 34 pistols

and four long-barreled guns.

The operation, allegedly led by
28-year-old Fawaz al-Toukhi from Bir

Hadaj, involved two sophisticated
smuggling operations in late 2024.

The suspects face multiple charges, and
officials noted that previously smuggled

weapons were used in terror attacks that
killed two police officers in October."

"Syria

ISIS senior leader, Muawiyah Al-Hajar,
was captured during a joint airdrop

operation by Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF) and International Coalition Forces

in Deir Ezzor's northern countryside.

Al-Hajar was responsible for overseeing
ISIS cell groups that conducted armed

attacks and IED operations in the area."

"Yemen

Yemen's Houthi rebels unsuccessfully
attempted to target a US fighter

jet and an MQ-9 Reaper drone with
surface-to-air missiles this week.

The Houthis, who have conducted
over 100 attacks on ships near

Yemen since November 2023, continue
their campaign in support of Gaza."

Civil Unrest

"Belgium

Protesters gathered in Brussels to
mark the third anniversary of the

Russia-Ukraine war, demonstrating
solidarity with Ukraine.

The rally at Albertina Square
featured demonstrators calling

for increased Western support for
Ukraine and demanding Russia's

accountability for alleged war crimes."

"United Kingdom

Protesters gathered at the Russian
embassy in London to mark three years

since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian folk singers performed
while demonstrators carried

flags and signs, some mourning
losses and others defying Putin."

Weapons

"India

Security forces in Manipur made two major
seizures: 61 kg of IEDs with detonators

in the Tengnoupal district near the
Indo-Myanmar border and 16 weapons,

including assault rifles and grenade
launchers, in the Churachandpur district.

Zomi and Kuki community members
voluntarily surrendered the

weapons following Governor
Ajay Kumar Bhalla's appeal.

The surrendered weapons included
M-16, AK-series, and INSAS rifles.

The unstable IEDs were destroyed on-site
by a bomb disposal team, and authorities

have filed an FIR while maintaining
heightened vigilance in the region."

"Israel

Israeli authorities intercepted a
humanitarian aid truck at the Erez

Crossing attempting to smuggle prohibited
items into northern Gaza, including

650 smartphones, dozens of sim cards,
three projectors, and car parts.

The truck's driver, an Israeli civilian,
was arrested following the discovery."

Accidents

"Cambodia

Two Cambodian toddlers died after
triggering a buried rocket-propelled

grenade while playing in Siem Reap
province, a former civil war battleground.

Despite 25+ years of peace,
Cambodia continues to struggle with

unexploded ordnance from decades of
conflict, resulting in approximately

20,000 deaths since 1979 and
double that number of injured."

"Panama

A boat carrying 21 people sank off
Panama's coast during rough weather.

The migrants were heading back to Colombia
after being blocked from entering the US.

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