Baltic states to disconnect from Russian power grid, and Iran seems unlikely to negotiate with the US
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 8, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
We collected 59 events on Friday,
including Baltic states prepared
to disconnect from Russia's
power grid, so let's get started.
Terrorism
"Democratic Republic of Congo
The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebel
group conducted drone strikes to terrorize
the population of Irumu territory in
Ituri province, Democratic Republic
of Congo (DRC), killing approximately
100 civilians over the past four days.
The drone strikes targeted
villages, farmers, and repatriated
citizens during the attacks.
On Tuesday, February 4, the rebel
group shot and killed 10 people,
set fire to houses, and looted
property in an area where military
operations were already underway."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
On Wednesday, suspected M23 rebels
killed three international aid workers
during an attack in the Rutshuru
Territory in the North Kivu province of
the Democratic Republic of the Congo."
"India
On Friday, at least five suspected
Pakistani militants were killed in a
landmine explosion near the Line of
Control (LoC) in the Battal sector of
Jammu and Kashmir's Poonch district.
Official sources reported that the
explosion occurred when one of the
militants attempting to cross over
from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK)
into India accidentally stepped on a
landmine placed on the Indian side.
The militants were carrying an
Improvised Explosive Device (IED),
which detonated during the incident,
causing additional damage."
"Nigeria
Several worshippers in a mosque in Bushe
community of Sabon Birni Local Government
Area (LGA), Sokoto State, were abducted
by suspected bandits at dawn on Thursday.
The attackers believed to be bandits,
took about 10 people, including the
Imam, during the early morning prayer."
"Nigeria
The Nigeria Security and Civil
Defence Corps Commandant General's
Special Intelligence Squad has
arrested five individuals involved
in various illegal activities.
The suspects were found in possession of
firearms, including rifles and pistols.
They were also carrying uniforms from
the Nigerian Forest Security Services."
"Nigeria
Gunmen have killed at least
five hunters in an attack on the
Okpomaju community of Otukpo Local
Government Area in Benue State."
"Nigeria
On Tuesday, a Boko Haram terrorist IED
blast killed two traders and wounded
four others as they traveled in a
pick-up van to a market in Adamawa State.
The incident occurred Tuesday along
the route between Harang and Jibhuhwui
villages in Hawul Local Government
Area (LGA) of Borno State and the
Garkida market in Adamawa State."
"Nigeria
On Thursday, a passenger boat carrying
20 travelers was hijacked by suspected
pirates around the precincts of Isaka
in Okrika Local Government Area (LGA)
in Rivers State, with nine passengers
rescued and 11 still missing.
The incident occurred when the boat
driver disobeyed rules and passed
through a prohibited channel,
leading to the pirate attack.
The Bonny Local Government Council
and security agencies are working
together to rescue the remaining
passengers and apprehend the pirates."
"Nigeria
Friday morning, suspected bandits
abducted two people from a residence
in Unguwar Malam Inusa, Kankara town.
The Katsina State Police Command
has yet to confirm the details."
"Nigeria
A terrorist attack by suspected Lakurawa
terrorists occurred in the Gulma
community, Kebbi State, resulting in
the death of one person and six others
hospitalized with gunshot wounds.
The attack happened around 11:00
PM on Thursday, and the assailants
fled into the forest after being
confronted by community members."
"Pakistan
As many as 12 men were arrested and
booked in a terrorism case for attacking
a polio team in the Gulzar-i-Hijri area.
The attackers verbally abused and
physically assaulted the polio team,
refusing to allow the administration
of polio drops to their children.
The police intervened and
saved the polio workers."
"Pakistan
On Thursday, a gun battle in
North Waziristan, Pakistan,
resulted in the deaths of one
Pakistani soldier and 12 militants.
The incident occurred during an
intelligence-based raid against a
militant hideout affiliated with the
banned Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)."
"Philippines
Friday morning, government troops arrested
a member of the New People's Army (NPA)
and seized an M16 rifle with ammunition
after a series of clashes with rebels
in Barangay Sangay, Sultan Kudarat.
Several other insurgents fled
the area during the fighting."
"South Sudan
On Thursday, unknown gunmen killed at
least 12 family members and injured
three others during an attack in
Manyang Payam, in Wun-tiit village
in Gogrial East, Warrap State.
The motive behind the attack is still
unknown, and investigations are ongoing."
"Syria
An explosion was reported in
Manbij caused by the detonation
of an IED near a Turkish-backed
faction's military headquarters.
No casualties have been reported."
"Yemen
A senior member of Al-Qaeda in Yemen,
Abu Yusuf al-Muhammadi al-Hadrami,
was killed in a bomb blast near where
he worked in Marib, east of Sanaa.
The explosion was caused by a
motorcycle packed with explosives."
Military Conflict
"Iraq
Turkish authorities have reported
the neutralization of nine members
of the Kurdistan Workers' Party
(PKK), including a prominent leader,
in operations conducted in the
Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI).
The term ""neutralized"" refers
to individuals who have been
killed, captured, or surrendered.
Turkish forces also conducted
airstrikes and targeted operations,
killing a senior PKK military official
and several other members, while
two others were reported missing."
"Lebanon
Lebanese media outlets report
an Israeli airstrike near the
village of Tebna, south of Sidon.
The IDF has not yet commented.
Last night, the IDF stated that fighter
jets targeted two Hezbollah sites where
arms were being stored in violation of
the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement."
"Myanmar
Junta forces in Kyaukphyu Township,
Rakhine State, have launched
heavy artillery strikes near
Chinese investment sites, causing
residents from 10 villages to flee.
The attacks are aimed at preventing the
Arakan Army from using the villages as
a base to advance on Kyaukphyu Town."
"Nigeria
Nigerian troops successfully carried out
an operation against bandits in Zamfara
State, killing two notorious leaders,
Kachalla Gwammade and Kachalla Shehu,
along with four of their fighters.
The operation occurred in Ruwan Daw, Maru
Local Government Area of Zamfara State."
"Somalia
Forces from Puntland's semi-autonomous
region in Somalia have launched a
successful offensive against the
Islamic State, capturing 96 square
miles of territory and 50 bases.
The operation resulted in the deaths of
at least 85 IS militants and 17 soldiers.
The operations mark the largest offensive
against the Islamic State in years, with
the US military providing air support and
training to Puntland's security forces."
"Sudan
Thursday morning, Sudanese forces
launched air strikes on Naima village
and its surroundings in the El
Geteina locality of northern White
Nile state, which remains occupied
by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)."
"Sudan
On Thursday, Sudanese military units
and allied militias seized control
of Wadi El Akhdar in the Sharg El Nil
(East Nile) locality of Khartoum North.
They announced plans to advance
towards Soba Bridge, which connects
East Nile with central Khartoum.
Reports regarding the army's progress
in El Mogran (where the Blue and
White Niles converge) northwest of
downtown Khartoum were contradictory.
Since launching its offensive on
Khartoum in September of last year,
the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have
struggled to break through Rapid
Support Forces (RSF) lines in the area.
Additionally, Sudanese troops took
control of the Saria Industrial Complex
near Abu Hamama in southwest Khartoum."
"Sudan
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are
advancing on Khartoum, with control
over areas south of the GIAD Industrial
City and the army's reported victory
over the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
in the southwestern part of the city.
The SAF has taken control of several
key locations, including El Tekeina,
El Maseed, and El Noba, and is
steadily advancing towards Khartoum.
The RSF has denied reports of
its members fleeing Khartoum,
claiming the fighting continues.
The situation remains volatile,
with reports of heavy fighting
and civilian casualties."
"Syria
Intense airstrikes by Turkish
fighter jets were reported, targeting
positions near Zor Maghar village.
Fierce clashes occurred between factions
of the National Army and Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF) in the Sheyoukh district
and the Qarquzaq bridge in the Manbij
countryside, with no casualties reported.
The number of civilians injured in Turkish
drone airstrikes on a convoy heading
to Teshreen dam has increased to 14.
Turkish forces also fired artillery
shells on Al-Sheyoukh town.
A Turkish drone attacked a
position in Sarin town, but no
casualties were documented."
"Syria
Turkish forces and their proxy
factions launched artillery attacks
on Qoronfel village, Ain Issa water
station, and Al-Sheyoukh town.
A Turkish drone also attacked
a position in Sarin town.
No casualties have been reported, but
the extent of material damage is unknown.
In a separate incident, a Turkish
drone attacked civilians near
Teshreen dam, injuring five people.
They were taken to the hospital."
"Taiwan
Taiwan tracked nine Chinese
military aircraft, six naval
vessels, and two official ships
around its country between 6 a.m.
on Thursday and 6 a.m.
on Friday.
All nine aircraft crossed the
Taiwan Strait median line in the
southwest corner of the countryâs
Air Defense Identification Zone.
Taiwan also tracked six Chinese balloons,
one of which floated over central Taiwan."
"Taiwan
A suspected Chinese freighter, the
Bao Shun, has been detected off
Taiwan's coast, sparking concerns
about undersea cable sabotage.
The Coast Guard drove away the ship
in January after being spotted taking
an erratic course over subsea cables.
Its suspicious movements and
lack of cargo have raised alarms,
with Taiwan ADIZ warning of its
""highly suspicious"" activities."
"Ukraine
A Russian airstrike on a residential
building in Myropillia, Sumy region, has
resulted in the death of three civilians.
The bodies of two men have been
recovered, while the third victim
is still being identified."
"Ukraine
In the Kherson region, Russians fired
artillery at the village of Zelenivka,
resulting in a civilian being wounded.
Damage assessments were not
reported in the attacks."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,340 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Around 275 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Ukraine's Defense Forces have
successfully shot down 81
Russian drones during an attack.
The drones were launched from
multiple locations and targeted
various regions in Ukraine.
The attack was repelled by
Ukraine's aviation, air defense
capabilities, electronic warfare
units, and mobile fire groups.
Damage was inflicted in several
regions, including a fire in a
garage in the Brovary district.
Thirty-one Russian decoy drones
caused no damage on the ground."
"Ukraine
A 37-year-old employee of a critical
infrastructure company in Kherson
was killed by a Russian drone while
performing emergency repair work.
The worker sustained fatal injuries from
an explosive device dropped by the drone."
"Ukraine
Russian troops conducted 3,217
strikes in the Donetsk region,
damaging civilian objects.
The town of Kostyantynivka and the village
of Ivanopillia were targeted, resulting
in the destruction of 6 civilian objects,
including four residential buildings.
Additional damage occurred in
Siversk, Lyman, Zakitne, and Yampol."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched 339 attacks on 14
settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region.
The attacks included air strikes, the use
of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and
multiple rocket launch systems (MLRS).
There were reports of damage to buildings
and vehicles but no civilian injuries.
A Russian drone strike also
damaged an unfinished multi-story
building in Zaporizhzhia."
"Ukraine
The Russian army attacked the city
of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region,
injuring a 48-year-old woman and
a 24-year-old police officer.
The attack also damaged an ambulance
and seven residential houses.
The Russians used guided
artillery shells for the attacks.
The injured police officer was
immediately transported to a medical
facility and underwent surgery."
"Ukraine
On February 6, one civilian was killed,
and five more were injured in the
Kherson region due to Russian strikes.
The Russians shelled multiple
areas in the region, causing
damage to buildings and houses."
"Ukraine
The Russian army attacked the city of
Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, injuring
a woman and damaging an ambulance.
Seven residential buildings were also
damaged in the village of Prystin.
The attack was carried out using a
Uragan multiple rocket launcher."
"Ukraine
Russia announced on Friday that its
forces had captured Toretsk in east
Ukraine, the largest town it claims
to have taken in recent months.
The capture of this industrial hub in
the Donetsk region would allow Russia
to disrupt Ukrainian supply routes.
The town, which had a population of 30,000
before Russia's invasion in 2022, has been
heavily affected by fighting, with the
number of residents decreasing by 90%.
The Ukrainian foreign ministry
described the town as ""ruins"" and
shared images of destroyed buildings
but did not confirm whether it had
fallen under Russia's control."
"Ukraine
Attack drone operators from the
Phoenix unit of the Pomsta border
brigade destroyed and damaged several
fuel and ammunition depots of the
Russian forces in the Luhansk region.
The State Border Guard Service of
Ukraine shared footage of the attack."
"Ukraine
A 19-year-old man in Beryslav,
Kherson region, was wounded by a UAV
attack carried out by Russian troops.
The man suffered blast injuries
and shrapnel wounds to his legs.
Another attack occurred in Naddniprianske,
injuring a 42-year-old man."
Political Conflict
"Estonia
After years of preparation, the
Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia,
and Lithuania are disconnecting
their electricity grids from Russia
and Belarus and strengthening
their ties with the European Union.
This move holds significant geopolitical
and symbolic importance, especially in
light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Sixteen power lines have already been
dismantled, and the remaining transmission
lines will be switched off one by one.
The Baltic Power System will
operate independently for 24 hours
before merging with the Continental
European and Nordic grids."
"Gaza Strip
The Prime Minister's Office
and the Hostages Families Forum
reported that the hostages to be
released from Gaza tomorrow are Eli
Sharabi, Or Levy, and Ohad Ben Ami.
Sharabi, 52, was kidnapped from Kibbutz
Beeri on October 7, 2023, and his
brother Yossi has been confirmed dead.
Levy, 34, was kidnapped from a
rave near Kibbutz Re'im on the
same day, and his wife was killed.
Ben Ami, 56, was also kidnapped
from Be'eri, and his wife was
released in November 2023."
"Iran
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, believes that
negotiations with the United States
will not solve Iran's problems.
He stated that experience has
shown that negotiating with the
US is not wise or honorable.
However, he did not explicitly order
against engaging with Washington.
US President Donald Trump wants
to create a new nuclear deal with
Iran, but previous efforts to
revive the 2015 deal have failed."
"Israel
The Hamas prisoners' media office expects
Israel to release 183 Palestinians
in exchange for three hostages.
The Palestinians include 18 serving life
sentences, 54 serving long sentences,
and 111 detained in Gaza during the war."
"Libya
On Thursday, the Alwahat district Security
Directorate announced in a statement
that the bodies of 19 individuals
had been discovered in a mass grave
located on a farm in the Jikharra area.
The deaths were linked to
illegal smuggling operations.
According to the statement, the
directorate shared images on Facebook
showing police officers and Jalu
Red Crescent volunteers placing the
recovered bodies into black plastic
bags, as reported by Reuters."
"Netherlands
The International Criminal Court
responded to US President Donald Trump's
sanctions by affirming its commitment to
delivering justice and hope worldwide.
The court condemned the US Executive
Order sanctions and vowed to support its
personnel and continue its impartial work.
Trump's sanctions were imposed
due to what he claims are unjust
investigations against the US and Israel.
The ICC called on its member states,
civil society, and all nations to stand
together for justice and human rights."
"Russia
Ukraine is ready to open a humanitarian
corridor for Russian civilians living
in border areas seized by its army to
return to Russian-controlled territory.
More than 1,500 civilians are still
living in areas of Russia's Kursk
region that Ukraine seized in August.
Ukraine's offer comes as Russia
accuses Ukrainian forces of
a fresh offensive in Kursk.
Russia has not officially requested
the humanitarian corridor, and
Ukraine criticized Moscow for its
indifference to the fate of its citizens.
The situation has caused anger
among those who have lost contact
with trapped family members."
"Turkey
Turkey has terminated the mission of
Afghan diplomats appointed by the former
pro-Western government, allowing the
Taliban to appoint their own envoys.
This move is seen as a diplomatic
success for the Taliban, which
has taken control of more than 40
embassies and consulates overseas.
The decision was reportedly made
due to pressure from the Taliban on
Turkish officials and diplomats."
Civil Unrest
"Greece
Several thousand high school and
university students protested in
central Athens against delays in
the investigation of a 2023 rail
disaster that killed 57 people.
The collision occurred near Tempe, Greece,
when a passenger train was directed
onto the same track as a freight train.
The conservative government is
facing increased pressure due to
the investigation delays, which
have sparked public protests
and political controversy."
"Israel
A group of activists staged a protest
outside the US consulate in Jerusalem,
calling for the release of the
remaining hostages abducted by Hamas.
The protest was organized by the
Mishmeret 101 organization, inspired by
Mahatma Gandhi's non-violent protests."
Accidents
"Brazil
Friday morning, a plane crashed
in Barra Funda, Sao Paulo, killing
two people aboard the plane.
A motorcyclist and a woman on a bus were
injured after they were struck by debris
from the explosion of the aircraft."
"Libya
The Libyan Red Crescent reported late
Thursday evening that its volunteers
had recovered the bodies of 10
migrants earlier that day after a
migrant boat sunk off Dilah port in
the city of Zawiya, approximately
40 km west of the capital, Tripoli."
"Russia
On Thursday, a small plane crashed
near the Myachkovo airfield near
Moscow, killing two flight instructors.
An investigation was underway."
"Syria
Two brothers were killed by an
explosion of an old landmine in Um
Al-Amad town, which is under the
control of the new government in
the eastern countryside of Homs."
"Syria
Two militiamen of the Turkish-backed
National Army were killed by
an old landmine near Teshreen
Dam in Manbij countryside.
One militiaman was from Kafrouma town
in the southern Idlib countryside,
and the other was from Al-Karak town
in the eastern Daraa countryside."
"Syria
Five civilians were killed, and two
others were injured in an explosion
caused by an old landmine in Al-Qart
village in western Manbij city.
The incident occurred in an area
controlled by the National Army factions."
"Syria
Two civilians were killed by
an old landmine explosion while
herding sheep in the Al-Bishri
desert in southern Deir Ezzor."
"United States
A Bering Air Caravan carrying 10 people,
including a pilot and nine passengers,
has gone missing while traveling from
Unalakleet to Nome in western Alaska.
Less than an hour after taking
off, the plane lost contact with
air traffic control, and a search
and rescue operation is underway.
According to the U.S.
Coast Guard, the aircraft was 12
miles (19 kilometers) offshore
when it was reported missing."
"Thanks for joining us for the February
8, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
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